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Feature Articles 2 Relationship of Knowledge of Food Group Servings Recommendations to Food Group Consumption Joanne F. Guthrie and Lois H. Fulton Health Status Transitions of the Elderly, By Residential Location: 1984 to 1990 Carolyn C. Rogers Trends in Food and Alcohol Consumption Away From Home Nancy E. Schwenk Research Summaries 41 Relationship Between Cigarette Smoking and Other High-Risk Behaviors Among Our Nation's Youth 44 How Does Living Alone Affect Dietary Quality? 47 Household Debt Regular Items 50 Charts From Federal Data Sources 52 Recent Legislation Affecting Families 53 Research and Evaluation Activities in USDA 56 Estimated Annual Expenditures on Children by Families, 1994 63 Data Sources 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 Journal Abstracts Cost of Food at Home Consumer Prices Guidelines for Authors Index of Authors in 1995 Issues Index of Articles in 1995 Issues Reviewers for 1995 U.S DEPOSITORY .P..ROPERTY OF TH LIBRAR A 22199 The University f or h Carolln t reensboro UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Volume 8, Number 4 1995 Dan Glickman, Secretary U.S. Depa1tment of Agriculture Ellen Haas, Under Secretary Food, utrition, and Consumer Services Eileen Kennedy, Executive Director Center for utrition Policy and Promotion Jay Hirschman, Director Nutrition Policy and Analysis Staff Editorial Board Mohamed Abdei-Ghany University of Alabama Rhona Applebaum Nati onal Food Processors Associati on Johanna Dwyer ew England Medical Center Jean Mayer USDA Human utri tion Research Center on Aging at Tufts Uni versity Helen Jensen Iowa State University Janet C. King Western Human Nutrition Research Center U.S. Department of Agriculture C. J. Lee Kentucky State University Rebecca Mullis Georgia State Uni versity Suzanne Murphy Uni versity of Californi a-Berkeley Donald Rose Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Ben Senauer University of Minnesota Laura Sims Uni versity of Maryland Retia Walker Uni versit y of Kentucky Editor Joan C. Courtless Editorial Assistant Jane W. Fleming Family Economics and Nutrition Review is written and published each quarter by the Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. The Secretary of Agriculture has determined that publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of the Department. This publication is not copyrighted. Contents may be reprinted without permission, but credit to Family Economics and Nutrition Review would be appreciated. Use of commercial or trade names does not imply approval or constiMe endorsement by USDA. Family Economics and Nutrition Review is indexed in the following databases: AGRICOLA, Ageline, Economic Literature Index, ERIC, Family Resources, PAIS, and Sociological Abstracts. Family Economics and Nutrition Review is for sale by the Superintendent of Documents. Subscription price is $8.00 per year ($1 0.00 for foreign addresses). Send subscription orders and change of address to Superintendent of Documents, P.O. Box 371954, Pittsburgh, PA 15250-7954. (See subscription form on p. 71.) Suggestions or comments concerning this publication should be addressed to: Joan C. Courtless, Editor, Family Economics and Nutrition Review, Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion, USDA, 1120 20th St., NW, Sutte 200 North Lobby, Washington, DC 20036. Phone(202)60€"4816. USDA prohibtts discrimination in tts programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-2791 . To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agricu~ure, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TOO). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion Feature Articles 2 18 30 Relationship of Knowledge of Food Group Servings Recommendations to Food Group Consumption Joanne F. Guthrie and Lois H. Fulton Health Status Transitions of the Elderly, By Residential Location: 1984 to 1990 Carolyn C. Rogers Trends in Food and Alcohol Consumption Away From Home Nancy E. Schwenk Research Summaries 41 Relationship Between Cigarette Smoking and Other High-Risk Behaviors Among Our Nation's Youth 44 How Does Living Alone Affect Dietary Quality? 47 Household Debt Regular Items 50 52 53 56 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 Charts From Federal Data Sources Recent Legislation Affecting Families Research and Evaluation Activities in USDA Estimated Annual Expenditures on Children by Families, 1994 Data Sources Journal Abstracts Cost of Food at Home Consumer Prices Guidelines for Authors Index of Authors in 1995 Issues Index of Articles in 1995 Issues Reviewers for 1995 Volume 8, Number 4 1995 2 Feature Articles Relationship of Knowledge of Food Group Servings Recommendations to Food Group Consumption By Joanne F. Guthrie Nutritionist Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion Lois H. Fulton Supervisory Home Economist Agricultural Research Service (retired) The USDA Food Guide provides recommended numbers of servings of five major food groups: (1) bread, cereal, rice, and pasta; (2) vegetables; (3) fruit; (4) milk, yogurt, and cheese; and (5) meat, poultry, fish, dry beans, eggs, and nuts. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship of knowledge of recommended servings of the five major food groups to reported food group consumption among female adult meal planners using data from the 1990 and 1991 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals and Diet and Health Knowledge Survey conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Because about 99 percent of Diet and Health Knowledge Survey respondents gave incorrect responses for grain products, the effects of correct information on consumption of this group could not be analyzed. For the remaining four food groups studied, knowledge of serving recommendations was significantly associated with food group consumption after controlling for the effects of a number of other factors that may influence food consumption behavior. Results provide support for the use of a food guide-based approach to dietary guidance. ITJ he science of nutrition attempts to answer the question, "What should we eat to be healthy?" That question can be addressed on two levels: the scientific level and the consumer level. At the scientific level, recommended amounts of essential nutrients and other ctietary components have been established by expert groups, such as the National Academy of Sciences (19,20). Consumers, however, choose foods rather than nutrients. To aid consumers in selecting a healthful diet, nutritionists have traditionally provided guidance in terms of food choices. A food guide translates recommendations on intakes of nutrients and other dietary components into recommendations for food consumption, with the goal of making nutrition advice understandable and usable to consumers. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first food guide for the general public in 1916. As Family Economics and Nutrition Review scientific knowledge increased, USDA developed new food guides to accommodate new information on nutrition needs (34). In 1985, USDA published its current food guide (30). To develop this guide, USDA used criteria based on the Recommended Dietary Allowances established by the National Academy of Sciences (21) and the Dietary Guidelines for Americans-the official statement of Federal dietary guidance policy published by the USDA and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (32). The overall goal of the USDA Food Guide is to offer consumers guidance on planning a total diet that would be both adequate in essential nutrients and moderate in food components for which excess intakes are associated with health risk (e.g., fat, saturated fatty acids, cholesterol, sodium, and sugars). The USDA Food Guide provides recommended numbers of servings to be consumed each day from each of the five major food groups. For the bread, cereal, rice, and pasta group (called the "grain group" in this article, for brevity), 6 to 11 servings per day are recommended. Three to 5 servings from the vegetable group and 2 to 4 servings from the fruit group are recommended. For the milk, yogurt, and cheese group ("milk group"), 2 to 3 servings are recommended. The recommendation for the meat, poultry, fish, dry beans, eggs, and nuts group ("meat and beans group") is 2 to 3 servings per day or the amounts of these foods that would be equivalent to a total of 5 to 7 ounces of cooked lean meat, poultry, or fish daily. In addition, the USDA Food Guide recommends moderation in consumption of fats, oils, sweets, and sodium. 1995 Vol. 8 No. 4 Figure 1. The Food Guide Pyramid: A guide to daily choices Fats, Oils, & Sweets USE SPARINGLY Milk, Yogurt, &Cheese Group 2·3 SERVINGS Vegetable Group 3-5 SERVINGS Meat, Poultry, Fish, Dry Beans, Eggs, & Nuts Group 2·3 SERVINGS Fruit Group 2-4 SERVINGS Bread, Cereal, Rice, & Pasta Group 6-11 SERVINGS Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The USDA Food Guide was used in several USDA educational publications during the 1980's and wa included in the 1990 edition of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. It gained further prominence in 1992 with the release of the Food Guide Pyramid (fig. 1 ), a new graphic representation of the Food Guide (31). After consumer testing, thi graphic was selected because it was found to be an effective visual image for communicating the information contained in the Food Guide (6,35). Since its publication, it has been widely disseminated not only as part of USDA publications but also as part of many educational and promotional materials developed by other public and private sector groups (35). Given that so much emphasis has been placed on the use of food guides for nutrition education, it would be useful to know to what extent a knowledge of food guide recommendations is associated with actual food choices. Results of some studies provide evidence that knowledge of food group recommendations is associated with eating a healthier diet. Butler and Raymond (7) found that low-income consumers who were able to name the four food groups defined by the "Basic 4" food guide developed by USDA in 1956 (34) had better diets than those who could not. Several evaluation studies have shown the Expanded Food and Nutrition Education Program (EFNEP), a nutrition education program for low-income consumers that u es a food-group-oriented approach to 3 4 Given that so much emphasis has been placed on the use of food guides for nutrition education, it would be useful to know to what extent a knowledge of food guide recommendations is associated with actual food choices. teaching nutrition, to be effective in improving the diets of participants (2,28 ). EFNEP, however, also teaches other knowledge and skills, such as food shopping and preparation, that may also contribute to its success. Most recently, in a longitudinal study of Australian consumers, Smith et al. (25) found knowledge of the Australian food guide to be a significant predictor of the consumers' likelihood of making positive dietary changes following a nutrition education program. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship of knowledge of recommended servings of major food groups to their reported consumption among female meal planners using data from the USDA's 1990-91 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) and Diet and Health Knowledge Survey (DHKS). These surveys are unique in that, together, they provide the only federally collected data set capable of relating knowledge and attitudes concerning diet and health to actual dietary intake. Methods Data and Sample The CSFII was designed to obtain a nationally representative sample of households in the 48 conterminous United States and consists of an allincome and a low-income sample. For the all-income sample, all households, including low-income households, were eligible to be interviewed. For the low-income sample, participation was limited to individuals in households with gross income for the previous month at or below 130 percent of the Federal poverty thresholds (29). For the 1990-91 CSFII, trained interviewers visited each household and obtained socioeconomic and demographic data on households and their members. Health-related information, such as heights and weights of household members, was also collected. Heights and weights were self-reported; self-reported weights may be slightly underestimated, especially among overweight individuals (22). In addition, the interviewers obtained 1 day of dietary intake data, using the 24-hour recall method, and household members were asked to complete a record of foods consumed on the 2 days following the 24-bour recall. Thus, up to 3 consecutive days of food consumption information was obtained from household members. For the DHKS, one member of each CSFII household was contacted about 6 weeks after dietary data were collected. Ideally, the individual contacted was the person who had identified himself or herself as the household's main meal planner/preparer. In some cases, interviewers were unable to contact the main meal planner/preparer, and about 6 percent of DHKS respondents were not the main meal planner/preparer. Most interviews were conducted by telephone; in-person interviews were conducted when this was not feasible. DHKS respondents were asked a series of questions on their knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to diet and health. One series of questions assessed knowledge of food group recommendations. DHKS respondents were asked to state how many servings of (1) fruit; (2) vegetables; (3) dairy products; (4) grain products; and (5) meat, poultry, or fish Family Economics and Nutrition Review a person should eat daily (fig. 2).1 Interviewers provided information on sample serving amounts. For this analysis, answers were coded as "correct," "above correct answer," or "below correct answer," based on USDA Food Guide recommendations. Any answer within the recommended range was acceptable. For example, for the fruit group, 2 to 4 servings are recommended; therefore responses of "2", "3", and "4" were all considered correct. In 1990 and 1991, DHKS and 3-day food intake data were obtained from 2,960 respondents. From these, female meal planners 18 years of age and over were selected as the sample for this analysis. The male DHKS respondents were excluded because of the considerable difference in male and female energy intakes. The small number of female DHKS respondents who were not meal planners were excluded because nonmeal planners might have less control over their food choices than meal planners. Pregnant and lactating women were excluded because their physiological state might be expected to create short-term changes in dietary requirements and food consumption. Women who consumed food products not typical of a mixed diet of a healthy adult, for example, medical nutritional products and baby foods, also were excluded. The final analysis data set consisted of 2,17 4 women. To adjust for oversampling of lowincome households and for differing response rates among population subgroups, DHKS sample weights were developed by USDA in cooperation with Iowa State University (29). Use 1 Although the question does not specify all foods that are included in the meat, poultry, fish, dry beans, eggs, and nuts group, the analysis examines consumption of all foods in this group. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Figure 2. Survey question assessing knowledge of food group recommendations Let's begin by talking about your opinion of the amount of food, such as fruits, vegetables and meats that people should eat each day for good health. How many servings of (READ ITEM) should a person eat each day if one serving equals (READ AMOUNT)? NUMBER OF ITEM AMOUNT SERVINGS a. Fruit One piece of whole fruit? b. Vegetables A half cup of cooked vegetables? c. Dairy products One cup of milk or a slice of cheese? d. Grain products One slice of bread or a half cup of cooked cereal, rice, or pasta? e. Meat, poultry A piece the size of a medium or fish hamburger? of these weights for descriptive statistics is recommended, so that the weighted sample will resemble more closely the actual U.S. population ( 15); weighted data were used in this study to calculate all descriptive statistics. Food Group Consumption Measures item or equivalent; and for milk products, 1 cup of milk or equivalent. For meat, poultry, fish, dry beans, eggs, and nuts, serving units were calculated in terms of 1 ounce of lean meat or equivalent.2 In the case of mixed foods (for example, a cheese and tomato sandwich), the food was disaggregated and the contribution of each food ingredient to a major food group was estimated. That is, the contribution of a serving of a cheese and tomato sandwich to the 20ne ounce or equivalent was elected as the unit of measurement for the meat and beans group because the USDA advises consumers The CSFII reports food intakes in grams. Intakes were converted to serving amounts as defined by the USDA Food Guide using a data base previously developed (14) . The servings designated for the USDA Food Guide were used to determine the number of servings or part of a serving represented in 100 grams of each food reported as eaten in the 1989-1991 CSFII. For grains, a serving size was one slice of bread or equivalent; for vegetables and fruit, 112 cup of a chopped, cooked, or canned to monitor daily intake of this group by estimating consumption of each food in the group in terms of equivalence to 1 ounce of cooked lean meat (for example, 1/2 cup of cooked dry beans is considered equivalent to I ounce of cooked lean meat). The number of ounces or equivalent consumed in a day should be totaled and compared to the recommendation of 5-7 ounces of cooked lean meat or equivalent per day (32). 5 grain, vegetable, and milk groups would be estimated. All contributions to the five major food groups were counted, including contributions from condiments and incidental ingredients (for example, the rai ins in raisin bread would be counted toward fruit intake, even though the food is primarily a grain). Thus, "number of servings consumed" as defined in this paper, refers to the total amount of a given food group consumed, expressed in terms of USDA Food Guide serving sizes. Analysis of Association of Knowledge of .Food Group Recommendations with Food Group Consumption Mean food group intakes and total energy intakes by meal planners who reported the correct number of food group servings were compared to food group and energy intakes of other meal planners. For this analysis, weighted data were used and statistical tests were conducted using the SUDAAN software package, which accounts for the effects of the complex design of the CSFIIDHKS surveys (23). T-tests were used for comparing means of two groups, and multiple contrasts were used for simultaneously comparing means of three groups. Besides knowledge of serving recommendations, many factors can affect food intake. Therefore, multivariate analysis techniques were used to examine the independent association of knowledge of serving recommendations with consumption of foods from the fruit, vegetables, meat and beans, and milk groups. (Because about 99 percent of respondents gave incorrect responses to the question on recommended servings of grain products, analysis of the effects of correct information was not undertaken for this group.) 6 For the other four groups, we examined to what extent food group serving consumption was explained by knowledge of serving recommendations while controlling for the effects of other factors that previous research indicated may influence food intake. The following factors were included in each model as control variables: Age, race, the height and body mass index3 of the individual, household income4 as a percent of the Federal poverty level, education, whether the individual was on a weight-loss diet, region of residence, urbanization, season in which dietary intake was reported, whether weekend intake was included in the 3-day dietary data, whether there were any days of reported intake in which the meal planner reported her food consumption to be unusually low, and whether there were any days of reported intake in which the meal planner reported her food consumption to be unusually high. Age, race, household income, and education were included because previous research indicated that they are associated with differences in consumption of particular food groups, such as fruits, vegetables, and milk and milk products (3,4,9,10). Region of residence was included because it may influence availability and price of some food items, as well as local food preferences. 3Body mass index was calculated as the ratio of self-reported weight in kilograms to the square of elf-reported height in meters. These values were calculated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service and are available on the data tape (29 ). 4Household income before taxes; includes household income from wages or salary, Social Security or Supplemental Security, pension or retirement, unemployment or workmen's compensation, alimony, child support, public assistance not including food tamps or WIC benefits, and any other sources of income (29). Urbanization may be associated with availability; for example, central city areas may have fewer and smaller supermarkets, with less food selection (33). Season in which dietary intake was reported may influence price and availability, particularly for fruits and vegetables. Inclusion of a variable assessing weekend food intake should control for day-to-day variation associated with weekend versus weekday eating patterns. Finally, differences in total energy intake can have an important influence on food group intake. Unfortunately, the use of energy intake as an independent variable in a multivariate equation is problematic because withinindividual variability in energy intake introduce error that will produce biased coefficients (use of an intake variable such as food group consumption as a dependent variable does not create bias because within-individual variability is subsumed into the error term) (5). Therefore, several variables that proxy differences in energy need were used as control variables. These include self-reported height and body mass index, as calculated from selfreported height and weight, since larger individuals are likely to consume more energy; being on a weight-loss diet; and whether individuals reported any days with either lower-than-usual or higherthan- usual dietary intakes. In addition, age influences energy needs and controls for energy differences to some extent. For the vegetable, milk, and meat and beans groups, ordinary least squares regression was used. For the vegetable and the meat and bean group , knowledge of correct serving recommendations was entered into the equation a Family Economics and Nutrition Review a dichotomous variable with correct answers compared with incorrect answers below the recommendation. Because so few meal planners gave responses that were above the correct USDA Food Guide recommendation for either of these two groups, these individuals were excluded from the analysis. For the milk group, correct answers and answers above the correct recommendation were compared with answers below the correct recommendation. In accordance with guidelines for the use of USDA food consumption survey data (15 ), unweighted data were used for these multivariate analyses, and ordinary least squares regression analyses were conducted using the SPSS-X statistical software package (26). For the fruit gtoup, ordinary ieast squares regression analysis was not appropriate because of the large number of individuals (n=354 or 16 percent of the sample) who did not consume any fruit at all over the 3-day period. In statistical terms, this means that the dependent variable (servings of fruit consumed) cannot be considered a continuous variable throughout its range, but is instead limited at the zero point, and techniques appropriate for limited dependent variable analysis must be used (16). One technique that has been proposed as particularly suitable for analysis of food group consumption is the two-step analysis developed by Cragg (8,13). The first step of this analysis (probit) identifies factors associated with the decision to consume fruit; the second step (truncated regression) identifies factors associated with quantity of fruit consumed, conditional on fruit being consumed. As with the vegetable group and the meat and beans group, the small number of meal planners who gave answers above the correct response were dropped from the analysis. Thus, the analysis compared those who gave "too low" responses and those who gave correct responses. The two-step analysis was conducted using the LIMDEP statistical package ( 11 ). Unweighted data were used in the analysis. Interpreting Regression Coefficients For the ordinary least squares regression analyses used to exanline consumption of the vegetable, meat and beans, and milk groups, estimated coefficients can be interpreted in terms of their independent effects on consumption. For example, if the estimated coefficient associated with knowledge of vegetable recommendations is 0.26, that can be interpreted as meaning that given knowledge of serving recommendations, an individual would consume 0.26 servings more of vegetables than an individual with equivalent personal characteristics who believed that a smaller-than-recommended number of vegetable servings should be consumed. The estimated coefficients produced by the two-step analysis used to examine fruit consumption cannot be interpreted in this manner. For this analysis, the reader should interpret a significant coefficient as indicating that a relationship exists between a given independent variable and fruit consumption, but the estimated coefficient cannot be directly used to detetmine the magnitude of that relationship. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Very few of the meal planners-only 1 percent-reported the correct number of servings from the grain group, while 99 percent gave responses that were below the recommended 6 to 11 servings. 7 Results Description of Study Population The average age of the meal planners was 49 (table 1). Average before-tax household income was $35,218. Because meal planners came from households of varying size, income was also assessed as a percentage of the Federal poverty level, which accounts for household size. Average household income as a percentage of the Federal poverty level was 361 percent. Eighty-four percent of meal planners were white. Most meal planners had at least a high school education. Twenty percent had not completed high school, whereas 37 percent were high school graduates, and 43 percent had at least some college education. Five percent were on a weightloss diet. All regions of the country were represented in the study population, with 22 percent of meal planners corning from the Northeast, 24 percent from the Midwest, 35 percent from the South, and 19 percent from the West. A range of urbanization levels was also represented, with 30 percent of the study population from the central city, 4 7 percent from a suburban area, and 23 percent from a nonmetropolitan area. To control for seasonal and day-of-week variation in intake, dietary data were collected from survey participants at all seasons of the year and on all days of the week. Approximately one-quarter of meal planners provided dietary data during each of the four seasons. For 57 percent of meal planners, the 3 days of dietary intake data included at least 1 weekend day; for the remainder, weekend dietary intake was not assessed. Dietary intake data can also be affected by fluctuations in day-to-day intake. 8 Table 1. Description of sample1 Variable Age (years) Before-tax annual household income Annual household income as percent of Federal poverty level Body mass index (BMI) Height (inches) Race White Non-White Education Less than high school High school At least some college On weight loss diet Yes No Region of residence Northeast Midwest South West Urbanization Central city Suburban Nonmetropolitan Season intake reported Spring Summer Fall Winter Weekend day included in 3-day dietary data Yes No At least 1 day of lower than usual intake Yes No At least 1 day of higher than usual intake Yes No 1 n=2, 174, weighted data. 2Valid percent for each variable. Mean Range 49 18-97 $35,218 $500 - $250,000 361 6- 3007 25 14-63 64 48 -73 Frequency (Percent) 84 16 20 37 43 5 95 22 24 35 19 30 47 23 25 25 24 26 57 43 28 72 13 87 Family Economics and Nutrition Review Twenty-eight percent of meal planners stated that on at least 1 of the 3 days of dietary intake reported, they consumed less than they usually ate. Thirteen percent indicated that on at least 1 of the 3 days of dietary intake reported, they consumed more than they usually ate. Finally, amounts consumed can be affected by an individual's size. The meal planners averaged 64 inches (1.6 m) in height and a body mass index of 25. Knowledge of Food Group Servings Recommendations The meal planners' knowledge of food group servings recommendations varied considerably by food group (table 2). Very few of the meal planners-only 1 percent-reported the correct number of servings from the grain group, while 99 percent gave responses that were below the recommended 6 to 11 servings. The majority-73 percent-provided correct responses for fruits, and 34 percent provided correct responses for vegetables. For the meat and beans group, 52 percent of meal planners provided correct responses. Almost all of the incorrect responses for the fruit, vegetable, and meat and beans groups were below the correct recommendation. For these three food groups, only 1 to 2 percent of meal planners named amounts that were above recommendations. For the milk group, however, 12 percent of meal planners reported serving recommendations that were above the 2 to 3 servings recommended by the USDA Food Guide. Sixty percent of meal planners reported the correct recommendation, and 28 percent reported amounts that fell below recommendations. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Table 2. Knowledge of food group servings recommendations of adult meal planners, CSFIIIDHKS 1990-91, 3-day data set1•2 Answer correct Answer below according to Answer above correct USDA correct Food group recommendation food guide recommendation Bread, cereal, rice, and pasta group 99 Fruit group 26 Vegetable group 64 Milk, cheese, and yogurt group 28 Meat, poultry, fish, dried beans, eggs, 46 and nuts group 1n=2,174, weighted data. 2Valid percent for each food group. Based on their 3-day diet records, meal planners generally consumed smaller amounts of the five major food groups than are recommended by the USDA Food Guide. Food consumption data based on self-reports may be underreported (17). Examination of total reported caloric intakes revealed mean intakes of 1,479 kilocalories for the meal planners, which is below the average energy allowance for adult women with light-to-moderate activity levels, as established by the National Academy of Sciences (20). It is possible, therefore, that these results may underestimate food group consumption. Percent 1 0 73 <1 34 2 60 12 52 2 Food Group Intakes and Energy Intakes of Meal Planners Table 3, p. 10, presents mean food group intakes and energy intakes of meal planners by knowledge of food group servings recommendations. Meal planners who reported the correct number of recommended servings of vegetables consumed significantly more servings of vegetables per day-2.9 servings, on average, compared with 2.5 servings consumed by those who gave answers below the correct recommendation. An average of 1.4 servings of fruit per day was consumed by those who reported the correct number of recommended servings of fruit, significantly more than the 1.0 servings averaged by those who gave answers below the correct recommendation. 9 Table 3. Mean food group intakes and total caloric intakes by female meal planners, CSFIIIDHKS 1990-91, 3-day data set1 Reported number of recommended food group servings Below correct recommendation (Total caloric intake) Correct (Total caloric intake) Above correct recommendation (Total caloric intake) 1n=2,174, weighted data. 2Does not include legumes. Grain group 4.9 (1479) -Indicates too few respondents for reliable estimates. Mean number of servings consumed per day Meat, poultry, fish, Vegetable Fruit Milk dried beans, eggs, and group2 group group nuts group 2.5L l.OL l.lL,H 4.4 oz. or equivalent (1456) (1446) (1414) (1462) 2.9 1.4 1.4H 4.5 oz. or equivalent (1506) (1491) (1467) (1490) 1.8 (1699)E L=Food group intake significantly lower than that of women with correct answers. H=Food group intake significantly lower than that of women who gave answers above correct recommendation. E=Energy significantly higher than that of women who gave correct answers and answers below correct recommendation. For the meat and beans group, those who provided a correct response to the question on number of servings consumed an average of 4.5 ounces of cooked lean meat, poultry, fish or the equivalent, compared with 4.4 ounces consumed by meal planners who gave answers below the correct recommendation; this difference was not significant. Meal planners who provided correct answers to the questions on recommended servings for the vegetable, fruit, and meat and beans groups averaged higher caloric intakes than those who provided answers below the correct recommendation, but the difference was not significant. 10 So few meal planners provided correct responses to the question on recommended servings of grains that average intakes for the "correct answer" group cannot be reliably estimated. The meal planners who provided answers below the correct recommendation, however, averaged 4.9 servings of foods from the grain group. For the milk group, meal planners who reported the correct number of recommended servings consumed 1.4 servings, whereas those who gave answers below the correct recommendation consumed 1.1 servings. The meal planners who gave answers that were higher than the USDA Food Guide recommendation consumed 1.8 servings per day. All three of the groups differed significantly from each other in terms of milk group servings consumed. Meal planners who gave answers below the correct recommendation had caloric intakes that were 53 calories lower, on average, than the intakes of those who gave the correct answer, but this difference was not significant. Meal planners who gave answers that were higher than the USDA Food Guide recommendation had average caloric intakes that were significantly higher than the caloric intakes of meal planners who gave answers that were either correct or below recommendations. Family Economics and Nutrition Review Association of Knowledge of Food Group Recommendations With Food Group Consumption For all four food groups studied, knowledge of food group serving recommendations was found to be positively associated with consumption of the corresponding food group after controlling for the other factors included in the multivariate analyses. Several of these other factors also influenced consumption of particular food groups, although none influenced food group consumption as consistently as did knowledge of serving recommendations. Regression models used to examine consumption of the vegetable, meat and beans, and milk groups explained 8 to 10 percent of variance, similar to results of other analyses using personal characteristics to explain differences in consumption as assessed by national food consumption survey data (18) . For the vegetable group (table 4), knowledge of the correct number of recommended servings was significantly associated with increased consumption of servings of vegetables. In addition, vegetable consumption was positively associated with age, household income, having at least some college education, and living in the Northeast or Western regions as compared with living in the South. It was negatively associated with living in a central city area, as compared with living in a suburban area, and having at least 1 day of lower than usual reported dietary intake. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Table 4. OLS regression coefficients for factors related to number of vegetable servings per day, CSFIIIDHKS 1990-91, 3-day data set1 Independent variable Knowledge of correct number of vegetable servings (base= Answer below correct recommendation) Age Height Body mass index White (base= Non-White) Household income as percent of Federal poverty level Education (base = No high school) High school At least some college On weight loss diet (base = Not on weight loss diet) Region of residence (base = South) Northeast Midwest West Urbanization (base= Suburban) City Nonmetropolitan Season intake reported (base = Winter) Spring Summer Fall Weekend day included in 3-day report (base= No weekend day) At least 1 day of lower than usual intake At least 1 day of higher than usual intake Constant R2 *p < .05. 12,023 observations included in analysis. Estimated coefficients 0.26* 0.008* 0.01 0.002 -0.007 0.0008* 0.06 0.25* -0.08 0.56* 0.13 0.22* -0.21 * 0.08 0.11 -0.04 -0.12 0.06 -0.52* 0.02 0.80 0.10 11 For the fruit group (table 5), two-step analysis revealed that knowledge of the serving recommendation was not associated with the decision to consume fruit but was associated with the amount of fruit consumed. Variables that had a positive significant association with the decision to consume fruit were being older, being taller, having a higher household income, having at least some college education, and living in the Northeast or West compared with the South. Besides knowledge of fruit servings recommendations, other variables that were positively associated with the amount of fruit consumed, conditional on the decision to consume fruit, were being older, having at least a high school education, and living in the Northeast compared with the South. Amount of fruit consumed was negatively associated with having a higher body mass index and having reported dietary intake during a period that included at least I weekend day. Consumption of servings of foods from the meat and beans group was positively associated with knowledge of the serving recommendations for this group (table 6). For this food group, being older, being white rather than non-white, being on a weight-loss diet, and eating less than usual on at least 1 of the 3 days of reported dietary intake were all associated with lower numbers of servings consumed. Having a higher household income, a higher body mass index, a reported dietary intake during a period that included at least 1 weekend day, and living in the Northeast region were factors that were positively associated with intake of this food group. 12 Table 5. Estimated coefficients for factors related to number of fruit group servings per day using two-step analysis, CSFIIIDHKS 1990-91, 3-day data set1 Independent variable Knowledge of correct number of fruit servings (base =Answer below correct recommendation) Age Height Body mass index White (base= Non-White) Household income as percent of Federal poverty level Education (base= No high school) High school At least some college On weight loss diet (base= Not on weight loss diet) Region of residence (base = South) Northeast Midwest West Urbanization (base = Suburban) City N onmetropolitan Season intake reported (base = Winter) Spring Summer Fall Weekend day included in 3-day report (base= No weekend day) At least 1 day of lower than usual intake At least 1 day of higher than usual intake Constant Log-likelihood Chi-square statistic *p < .05. 12,032 cases included in analysis. Estimated coefficients Truncated Pro bit regression 0.11 2.26* 0.02* 0.10* 0.03* -0.005 -0.007 -0.08* 0.02 0.76 0.0005* 0.001 0.14 1.15* 0.43* 2.39* -0.08 1.09 0.25* 1.42* 0.10 0.19 0.30* 0.71 -0.16 0.70 -0.08 0.32 -0.03 -0.09 0.07 0.65 -0.15 -0.74 0.13 -0.93* -0.13 -0.81 0.06 0.44 -2.53* -12.99* -858 -2211 192* Family Economics and Nutrition Review Table 6. OLS regression coefficients for factors related to consumption of meat, poultry, fish, dried beans, eggs, and nuts1 per day, CSFIIIDHKS 1990-91, 3-day data set2 Independent variable Reported number of recommended meat, poultry, fish servings (base = Answer below correct recommendation) Age Height Body mass index White (base = Non-White) Household income as percent of Federal poverty level Education (base= No high school) High school At least some college On weight loss diet (base= Not on weight loss diet) Region of residence (base = South) Northeast Midwest West Urbanization (base= Suburban) City Nonmetropolitan Season intake reported (base = Winter) Spring Summer Fall Weekend day included in 3-day report (base= No weekend day) At least 1 day of lower than usual intake At least 1 day of higher than usual intake Constant R2 *p <.OS. 1 Expressed as ounces of cooked lean meat or equivalent. 22,0 18 observations included in analysis. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Estimated coefficients 0.32* -0.01* 0.01 0.02* -0.70* 0.001 * -0.05 -0.16 -0.76* 0.29* 0.0003 -0.21 0.17 0.16 0.22 0.11 -0.14 0.19* -0.70* 0.26 3.80* 0.09 For the milk group (table 7, p. 14), the relationship of knowledge to intake is somewhat more complex. Both knowledge of correct serving recommendations and belief that even higher numbers of servings from the milk group should be consumed were associated with consumption of significantly more servings from the milk group, compared with belief that fewer than two servings are recommended. However, the values of the estimated coefficients differ. For the correct answer, the value of the estimated coefficient is 0.31, indicating that given knowledge of the correct recommendations, the female meal planner will consume 0.31 more servings from the milk group than if he believed the recommendation to be lower, all other factors being equal. For the answer above the correct recommendation, the estimated coefficient is 0.49, indicating that this belief is likely to lead to an increase in milk group consumption of 0.49 servings. Thus, belief that even more servings from the milk group should be consumed than are recommended by the USDA Food Guide leads to an even greater increase in milk group consumption than knowledge of the correct recommendations. Several other factors also influenced milk group consumption. Being white rather than non-white was positively associated with consumption of this food group, as was having at least orne college education, living in the Midwest region as compared with the South, and being taller. Having a higher body mass index, reporting food intake during the summer or fall months as compared with winter, and reporting at least 1 day of lower than usual intake were negatively associated with number of servings of milk and milk products consumed. 13 Table 7. OLS regression coefficients for factors related to number of milk servings per day, CSFII/DHKS 1990-91, 3-day data set1 Independent variable Reported number of recommended milk group servings (base = Answer below correct recommendation) Correct answer Answer above correct recommendation Age Height Body mass index White (base= Non-White) Household income as percent of Federal poverty level Education (base= No high school) High school At least some college On weight loss diet (base = Not on weight loss diet) Region of residence (base = South) Northeast Midwest West Urbanization (base= Suburban) City Nonmetropolitan Season intake reported (base = Winter) Spring Summer Fall Weekend day included in 3-day report (base= No weekend day) At least 1 day of lower than usual intake At least 1 day of higher than usual intake Constant R2 *p < .05. 12,051 observations included in analysis. 14 Estimated coefficients 0.31 * 0.49* -0.0004 0.03* -0.009* 0.34* -0.00003 0.08 0.17* -0.02 0.12 0.12* 0.01 0.03 -0.07 -0.08 -0.19* -0.14* -0.04 -0.15* 0.11 -0.59 0.08 Conclusions For all four major food groups analyzed, it was found that knowledge of USDA Food Guide servings recommendations was independently associated with food group consumption after controlling for a number of characteristics. For the fruit group, knowledge of serving recommendations was not associated with the decision to consume fruit but was associated with amount consumed. It may be that over a 3-day period individuals consume at least small amounts of fruit for a variety of reasons, for example as a small part of another food. Consumption of larger amounts, however, seems to be more likely when individuals know serving recommendations. For the vegetable, fruit, and meat and bean groups, knowledge of correct recommendations was compared only with incorrect answers that were lower than the correct recommendation, since fewer than 3 percent of meal planners gave answers that were above recommendations for these food groups. Only for the milk group was there an appreciable number of meal planners who believed that even more servings than are recommended in the USDA Food Guide should be consumed. Believing one should consume higherthan- recommended amounts of a given food group may encourage its intake, but it may also increase caloric intake or displace other food groups from the diet. The meal planners who believed they should consume higher-thanrecommended amounts from the milk group did consume more milk and milk products than either those with correct or "too low" answers. They also consumed significantly more calories and did not consume smaller-than-average Family Economics and Nutrition Review amounts of other food groups (data not shown). Their total caloric intake was 232 to 285 calories higher than that of women in other groups, much more than would typically be provided by 0.4 servings from the milk group. It appears that their increased consumption of milk and milk products was associated with a pattern of higher-than-average overall caloric intake rather than with displaced consumption of other foods. The only one of the five major food groups for which an association between knowledge of USDA Food Guide recommendations and food group consumption could not be established was the grain group. Too few meal planners knew the recommended number of grain servings for it to be possible to analyze the effects of correct information on consumption of these foods. These data were collected before the publication of the Food Guide Pyramid graphic, which has given more publicity to USDA Food Guide recommendations. It may be that consumers are now more aware of recommendations for consumption of grains. Data on knowledge of food group serving recommendations and food consumption are currently being collected as a part of USDA's 1994-96 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals/Diet and Health Knowledge Survey. Comparison of the results obtained after release of the Food Guide Pyramid with the results obtained by this study will provide some information on the effectiveness of the Food Guide Pyramid in transmitting knowledge of recommended grain intake. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 A major concern when examining the relationship of knowledge of recommendations to food group intake is the possible effect of confounding variables. One major variable of interest is energy intake. Individuals differ in energy intake, due to differences in size, activity level, etc. Individuals who consume more total energy (kilocalories) might be expected to consume larger amounts of food groups, regardless of knowledge. Therefore, several variables reflecting differences in energy intake were included in analyses as control variables. The significance of knowledge, after controlling for factors that would influence energy intake, lends more support to the conclusion that differences found are attributable to quality of food choices, not just quantity of food consumed. Underreporting of energy intake might also affect identified relationships. Unfortunately, dietary data based on 3 days of reported intake cannot be used to categorize specific individuals as underreporters, since some reported low intakes may simply reflect day-to-day variation in intake. Overweight has been identified as being associated with underreporting (24). Body mass index was included in the analysis and was found to be significantly associated with decreased consumption of foods from the fruit group and the milk group and increased consumption of foods from the meat and beans group. These relationships may be associated with underreporting or with distinctive patterns of food consumption related to having a higher body mass index. Since it would be surprising for higherweight individuals to underreport fruit and milk products but not foods from the meat and beans group, the latter explanation may be more probable. Although many other factors were found to have significant impacts on individual food groups, knowledge of food group recommendations had the most consistent, significant, positive association with food group consumption of any of the factors included in the multivariate analyses. This supports the general usefulness of a food-groupbased approach to nutrition education as a means of encouraging an overall healthful diet. At the same time, nutrition educators may want to consider the role other variables, such as household income, education, and place of residence, may play in consumption of particular food groups. For example, results of these analyses indicate that, when factors such as race and household income are controlled, living in a central city area is associated with decreased consumption of vegetables. Nutrition educators working with urban populations may wish to consider this finding and investigate any particular problems, such as access to stores stocking a variety of vegetables, that may need to be considered in developing a nutrition promotion program that would be effective in an urban population. Despite the positive effects of knowledge, meal planners who knew USDA Food Guide serving recommendations did not, on average, consume the minimum number of servings in the recommended range. Although this result could reflect underreporting, it may also indicate further educational and motivational needs of consumers. Lack of knowledge of recommended serving sizes for each food group has been cited as a source of consumer confusion ( 1 ). Educational efforts that provide this information may assist consumers. 15 Other types of education that build on the basic message of the Food Guide may also increase its effectiveness ( 1 ). These results provide some support for the importance of nutrition education efforts to teach food group servings recommendations to consumers. It may be that this simple information by itself can encourage consumption of major food groups. However, it is generally agreed that many other factors, such as attitudes toward food and health and lifestyle factors, also play important roles in influencing food-related behavior ( 12). It may be that knowledge of recommended servings, as used in this analysis, is a proxy for other variables, such as more positive attitudes toward following dietary guidance or more detailed nutrition knowledge. Further investigation of the relationship of nutrition knowledge to food group consumption is indicated. 16 References 1. Achterberg, C., McDonnell, E., and Bagby, R. 1994. How to put the Food Guide Pyramid into practice. Journal of the American Dietetic Association 94(9): 1030-1035. 2. Amstutz, M.K. and Dixon, D.L. 1986. Dietary changes resulting from the expanded food and nutrition education program. Journal of Nutrition Education 18(2):55-60. 3. Axelson, M.L. 1986. The impact of culture on food-related behavior. Annual Reviews of Nutrition 6:345-363. 4. Axelson, M.L. and Brinberg, D. 1989. A Social-Psychological Perspective on FoodRelated Behavior. Springer-Verlag, New York. 5. Beaton, G.H. 1994. Approaches to analysis of dietary data: Relationship between planned analyses and choice of methodology. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 59(Supp1.):253S-261 S. 6. Bell Associates, Inc. 1992. An Evaluation of Dietary Guidance Graphic Alternatives. Prepared for U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Services, Alexandria, VA. 7. Butler, J.S. and Raymond, J. 1987. Knowledge Is Better Than Money: The Effect of the Food Stamp Program on Nutrient Intake. Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Paper: No. 828-87. University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI. 8. Cragg, J.G. 1971. Some statistical models for limited dependent variables with application to the demand for durable goods. Econometrics 39:829-844. 9. Cronin, F.J., Krebs-Smith, S.M., Wyse, B.W., and Light, L. 1982. Characterizing food usage by demographic variables. Journal of the American Dietetic Association 81:661-673. 10. Enns, C.W., Tippett, K.S., Basiotis, P., and Goldman, J. 1994. Diets of Americans. In: Nutrition: Eating for Good Health, AlB 685, pp. 2-11 . U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. 11. Greene, W.H. 1992. LIMDEP Version 6.0: User's Manual and Reference Guide. Econometric Software, Inc., Bellport, NY. 12. Guthrie, J.F. 1994. Quantitative nutrition education research: Approaches, findings, outlook. Journal of Nutrition 124:1813S-1819S. 13. Haines, P.S., Guilkey, D.K., and Popkin, B.M. 1988. Modeling food consumption decisions as a two-step process. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 70:543-552. 14. Kennedy, E.T., Ohls, J., Carlson, S., Fleming, K. 1995. The Healthy Eating Index: Design and applications. Journal of the American Dietetic Association 95( 10): 1103-1108. 15. Kott, P.S., Gray, B.C., and Guenther, P.M. 1989. Guidelines for the Use of Weights When Analyzing and Reporting HNIS Survey Data: October, 1989. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Human Nutrition Information Service. 16. Maddala, G.S. 1983. Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 17. Mertz, W., Tsui, J.C., Judd, J.T., Reiser, S., Hallfrisch, J., Morris, E.R., Steele, P.D., and Lashley, E. 1991. What are people really eating? The relation between energy intake derived from estimated diet records and intake determined to maintain body weight. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 54: 291-295. Family Economics and Nutrition Review 18. Murphy, S.P., Rose, D., Hudes, M., and Viteri, F.E. 1992. Demographic and economic factors associated with dietary quality for adults in the 1987-88 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey. Journal of the American Dietetic Association 92:1352-1357. 19. National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, Food and Nutrition Board. 1989. Diet and Health: Implications for Reducing Chronic Disease Risk. National Academy Press, Washington, DC. 20. National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, Food and Nutrition Board. 1989. Recommended Dietary Allowances (lOth ed.). National Academy Press, Washington, DC. 21 . National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, Food and Nutrition Board. 1980. Recommended Dietary Allowances (9th ed.). National Academy Press, Washington, DC. 22. Rowland, M.L. 1990. Self-reported weight and height. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 52:1125-1133. 23. Shah, B.V., Barnwell, B.G., Hunt, P.N., and LaVange, L.M. 1991. SUDAAN User 's Manual: Professional Software for Survey Data Analysis for Multi-Stage Sample Designs. Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, NC. 24. Schoeller, D.A. 1990. How accurate is self-reported dietary energy intake? Nutrition Reviews 48(10):373-379. 25. Smith, A.M., Baghurst, K., and Owen, N. 1995. Socioeconomic status and personal characteristics as predictors of dietary change. Journal of Nutrition Education 27(4): 173-181. 26. SPSS, Inc. 1988. SPSS-X User 's Guide (3rd ed.). SPSS, Inc., Chicago. 27. Tippett, K.S., Mickle, S.J., Goldman, J.D., Sykes, K.E., Cook, D.A., Sebastian, R.S., Wilson, J.W., and Smith, J. 1995. Food and Nutrient Intakes by Individuals in the United States, I Day, 1989-91. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service. NFS Report No. 91-2. 28. Torisky, D.M., Hertzler, A.A., Johnson, J.M., Keller, J.F., Hodges, P.A.M., and Mifflin, B.S. 1989. Virginia EFNEP homemakers' dietary improvement and relation to selected family factors. Journal of Nutrition Education 21(6):249-258. 29. U.S. Department of Agriculture. 1993. Data tapes and documentation for 1990 and 1991 CSFll/DHKS. National Technical Information Service Accession No. PB93-504843 (1990 tape) and PB94-500063 (1991 tape). Computer tapes. 30. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Human Nutrition Information Service. 1985. Developing the Food Guidance System for "Better Eating for Better Health," A Nutrition Course for Adults. Administrative Report No. 377. 31. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Human Nutrition Information Service. 1992. The Food Guide Pyramid. Home and Garden Bulletin No. 252. 32. U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. 1980. Nutrition and Your Health: Dietary Guidelines for Americans. Home and Garden Bulletin No. 232. 33. Weinberg, Z. 1995. No Place to Shop: The Lack of Supermarkets in Low-Income Neighborhoods. Public Voice for Food and Health Policy, Washington, DC. 34. Welsh, S., Davis, C., and Shaw, A. 1992. A brief history of food guides in the United States. Nutrition Today, November/December, pp. 6-11. 35. Welsh, S., Davis, C., and Shaw, A. 1992. Development of the Food Guide Pyramid. Nutrition Today, November/December, pp. 12-23. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 17 18 Health Status Transitions of the Elderly, by Residential Location: 1984 to 1990 By Carolyn C. Rogers Demographer Economic Research Service Transitions in the health status and living arrangements of communityresident elderly persons are examined to determine whether declining health and changes in social support networks are likely to result in changes in living arrangements. The Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA) is used to follow a sample of elderly people 70 years and older over a 6-year interval. Results show that the level of disability at the baseline date (1984) affects health outcomes over time, with fewer of the initially nondisabled entering nursing homes or dying by 1990. The nonmetro elderly experienced a somewhat greater decline in health status over the 6-year interval than did the metro elderly. A smaller proportion of elderly persons initially living with their spouse end up in nursing homes or die 6 years later, compared with those initially living either alone or with others. The longitudinal data show that the risk of institutionalization is roughly the same for metro and nonmetro elderly. Elderly people adjust their living arrangements in response to changes in their health and social support networks. [!] he growing number of older people in the United States, their greater risk of disability, and their higher use of health care services have increased the need for a more complete understanding of the nature of changes in health status later in life. This study uses the Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA) to follow a sample of elderly people 70 years and older living in the community in 1984 over a 6-year interval. Changes in health and disability are examined in relation to transitions in living arrangements and by metropolitan-nonmetropolitan (metro-nonmetro) residence. Understanding the relationship between changes in health status, living arrangements, and residential location is essential to the allocation of health care and community resources and the future planning of appropriate health care services in local communities. This study examines individual transitions both into and out of functionally impaired states. In order to have a better basis on which to plan interventions in functional loss in the elderly population, nationally representative estimates are needed of functional status transition rates specific by age, prior functional status, and residence. Longitudinal data make it possible to examine the 6-year incidence of functional limitations, the rates of improvement or loss of function FamiJy Economics and Nutrition Review for currently disabled persons, and the risks of institutionalization and mortality on the community-resident elderly population. Previous Research Several studies have examined changes over time in the functional status of the elderly and the risk of institutionalization and death using the LSOA and other surveys (2,4,6,10,13). Manton found that the majority of elderly persons who were not initially disabled (about 82 percent) remained nondisabled over a 2-year period, and there was a significant probability of long-term improvement in functional status even at very high levels of impairment. Examining individual transitions both into and out of functionally impaired states, the level of disability was found to strongly predict differentials in mortality and risk of institutionalization; the higher the level of disability, the greater the risk of becoming institutionalized or dying. Crimmins and Saito (4) found that the vast majority of older persons initially free of functioning difficulties remained that way over a 2-year period. Looking at both older people with difficulties in the initial period and tho e without difficulties, they found that less than 10 percent of those without functioning deficiencies at the first interview develop a deficiency. Older persons with a greater number of functioning difficulties at the baseline are less likely to improve in the interval. A much lower likelihood of improvement occurs in activities of daily living (ADL's) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL's) with an onset duration greater than 1 year. Crimmins and Saito (4) 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 conclude that a return to functioning is most likely to occur where overall functional status is higher, loss is recent, and impairment is not severe, and that decline in each individual function is more likely to occur when general health and functioning levels are lower. Health status was the best predictor of the living arrangements of older people 2 years later; elderly persons who had no difficulty performing personal care and home management tasks were more likely to be alive and living in the community 2 years later (6,7). Changes in marital status and household composition, such as death of a spouse, and declining health are typical life cycle events related to the aging process that may encourage elderly persons to change residence (3). Elderly nonmovers are more likely to live with their spouse in independent households, compared with movers who are more likely to be widowed and to move in with their children or other relatives (1). Speare, Avery, and Lawton (13) found that both the initial level of functional ability and amount of change in functioning (disability) from 1984 to 1986 predicted changes in living arrangements and residential mobility for many elderly people. Because most persons kept the same living arrangements between surveys, living arrangements in 1984 were a strong predictor of living arrangements in 1986. Disability (difficulties in ADL's and IADL's) predicted a change to more dependent living arrangements; level of disability had a significant and positive effect on living with others. Changes in functional limitations were even more strongly related to changes in living arrangements than the initial levels of these measures. Health status and level of disability in 1984 were major predictors of both , entering an institution in the 2-year interval and death by 1986. Reasons for moving indicated that health and disability were important considerations for many elderly movers. Elderly moving decisions are based on complex and interrelated health and social motives (5). A life course typology by Litwak and Longino (8) consists of three stages of elderly migration: (1) amenity-related mobility in early retirement, (2) mobility motivated by moderate forms of disability, making it difficult to perform activities of daily living (ADL's), and (3) institutional moves in late old age due to chronic disability. Younger, recently retired migrants may move because their health is good-poorer health would deter them from moving; alternatively, the poorer health of the older elderly may prompt them to move to long-term care institutions (1 1). The elderly who move because of dependency or assistance needs have higher use of chronic health care facilities, rely more on family and friend support networks, and have lower overall levels of well-being. These previous studies show that changes in health and functional status of the elderly over time include both improvement and deterioration. Elderly people adjust their living arrangements or relocate in response to changes in health and family support networks. Changes in health and disability measures should help predict risks of institutionalization and mortality. Differences by metrononmetro residence will impact on planning interventions in functional loss and appropriate health care services in local areas. 19 Purpose and Objectives The purpose of this research is to examine changes in functional status of the elderly over time, to assess the relationship between health and adjustments in living arrangements, and to determine the impact of residence on these changes. The expected path of transitions is from living independently to dependency and then to institutional care. The basic tenet of this research was that changes in health and/or social support would result in changes in living arrangements or residential mobility, especially toward places with better access to health and social services. One would expect elderly persons initially free of disability to have better health outcomes over time and lower risks of entering nursing homes or dying. One would also expect both those in declining health and the recently widowed to experience adverse changes in living arrangements and greater risks of institutional care or death. This article focuses on transitions over the 1984 to 1990 interval. The following questions were addressed: (1) What changes can be expected in the health of a cohort of people 70 years and older over an interval of 6 years and how are transitions in health affected by initial health status? Do these patterns differ by metro-nonmetro residential location? and (2) What transitions can be expected in the living arrangements of a cohort of people 70 years and older over an interval of 6 years and what effect do changes in health status and marital status (widowhood) have on these living arrangements? Do these patterns differ by metro-nonmetro residential location? 20 Data and Methods The LSOA is designed to measure changes in functional ability and in living arrangements (including movement into and out of nursing homes) of a cohort of older people. The LSOA describes the continuum from functionally independent living in the community through dependence, possible institutionalization, and finally to death. The 1990 data file provides baseline and 6 years of follow-up information 1 on 7,527 noninstitutionalized persons 70 years or older when they participated in the 1984 Supplement on Aging to the National Health Interview Survey. By 1990, 55 percent of the initial sample completed the interview, 15 percent were not interviewed for various reasons, and 30 percent had died. 1Those interviewed in 1984 were reinterviewed in 1986, 1988, and 1990. Defmitions Data include demographic and health characteristics, including disability measured by activities of daily living (ADL's) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL's); changes in those characteristics and reasons for change; and doctor, hospital, and nursing home use. The LSOA also contains information about elderly persons who (1) remained outside of institutions (with unchanged living arrangements, or living alone, or having moved to another residence, or living with someone else in their residence); (2) became institutionalized; and (3) died. Data on physical limitations provide information on persons who remained the same or changed in disability, difficulties with physical movement (such as walking, climbing stairs, and lifting), and the provision of help with ADL's or IADL's. Two measures are used to assess the degree of disability. Activities of daily living, or ADL's, are the basic tasks of everyday life, including bathing or showering, dressing, eating, transferring (getting in or out of a chair or bed), walking, getting outside, and using/getting to a toilet. When people are unable to perform these activities, they need help in order to cope, either from other persons or via mechanical aids or devices. With advancing age, a higher proportion of persons have difficulty performing personal care or home management activities. ADL's, especially measures of mobility, such as walking and getting outside, are key indicators of one's ability to live independently in the community and are also significant predictors of admission to nursing homes, use of paid home care, and use of both hospital and physician services. ADL's do not measure the full range of activities necessary for independent living in the community, and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL' s) were developed to partially fill this gap. IADL's include meal preparation, shopping for personal items, managing money, using the telephone, doing heavy housework, and doing light housework. IADL disabilities capture those activities that are more complex and less severe than ADL difficulties. Family Economics and Nutrition Review Use of medical care is obtained from nursing home stays since 1984, hospital stays in the year before the interview, and contacts with doctors in the year before the reinterview. This study defines disability in terms of a scale of impairment: (1) the healthiest, who are free of disability, (2) those with one or more IADL disabilities only, and (3) the most impaired-those unable to perform one or more ADL's, which makes independent living difficult. Transitions were examined over a 6-year interval, 1984 to 1990, so that the widest range of change could be observed. Intervals of 2 and 4 years may reveal real transitions as well as more temporary fluctuations. Because the estimates in this article are based on a sample rather than the entire population of those 70 years and older, the estimates are subject to sampling error. Unless otherwise noted, all statements of comparison in the text are statistically significant at the 95-percent level of confidence. Results Changes in Health Status Among all persons 70 years and older living in the community in 1984, 35 percent were not disabled by 1990, 13 percent had one or more IADL's only, 6 percent had one or more ADL's, 25 percent had both ADL and IADL difficulties, 6 percent were in nursing Table 1. Health status transitions of the elderly 70 years and older homes, and 15 percent had died by 1990 (table 1). Among those who were not disabled in 1984 ( 68 percent of all persons 70 years and older living in the community), 48 percent remained free of disability, 38 percent declined in health, 4 percent entered nursing homes, and the remainder had died by 1990. Lower proportions of initially nondisabled persons ended up in nursing homes or had died by 1990 than the elderly who had some level of disability in 1984. Not surprisingly, the health of those with ADL difficulties in 1984 (the most disabled at baseline) deteriorated more than their less disabled counterparts, and higher proportions ended up in nursing homes or died. Some improvement in health can also be seen Health status 1990 Health status Not Both ADL's Nursing Measure of health In 1984 disabled 1 +IADL's1 1 +ADL'~ +IADL's home Deceased Percentage Self-reported health Excellent-very good 40.4 48.2 12.6 5.7 18.8 3.7 11.0 Good 31.4 36.8 13.4 6.5 24.9 6.1 12.4 Fair or poor 28.2 15.7 12.1 6.0 34.9 8.5 22.6 Total 100.0 35.4 12.7 6.0 25.2 5.8 14.7 Functional status Not disabled 67.8 47.6 13.6 5.9 18.4 3.8 10.8 1 + IADL's 10.0 13.5 20.0 4.5 35.2 8.3 18.5 1 +ADL's 21.7 7.5 6.9 7.3 42.4 10.9 24.9 Total 100.0 35.4 12.7 6.0 25.3 5.9 14.7 11 + IADL's: those with one or more IADL difficulties only. Instrumental activities of daily living (IADL's) include meal preparation, shopping for personal items, managing money, u ing the telephone, doing heavy housework, and doing light housework. 21 + ADL's: tho e with one or more ADL difficulties, may also have IADL's. Activities of daily living (ADL's) include bathing or howering, dressing, eating, transferring (getting in or out of a bed or chair), walking, getting outside, and using/getting to a toilet. 1995 Vol. 8 No. 4 21 22 Lower proportions of initially nondisabled persons ended up in nursing homes or had died by 1990 than the elderly who had some level of disability in 1984. over the 6-year interval-about 15 percent of elderly persons with ADL or IADL limitations in 1984 improved in health by 1990. Elderly persons whose self-assessed health was very good to excellent at baseline were more likely to be free of disability by 1990 than were those initially in poorer health. A higher proportion of those initially in fair or poor health had both ADL and IADL limitations by 1990; they were also more likely to have entered nursing homes or died by 1990. The best health outcomes over the 6-year interval occurred to the elderly who rated their health as excellent or very good at the baseline, compared with those who rated their health as fair or poor. Metro-Nonmetro Residence (see box table) As measured by self-assessed health and functional limitations, the elderly in suburban areas are healthier than their counterparts in nonmetro areas and central cities (12). Nonmetro elders have more functional limitations and are also more likely to have certain chronic conditions, such as arthritis, that have a strong effect on their ability to perform various activities of daily living. Rogers (12) found that health status differences by residence persist even when other factors-age, race, social support networks, income, and education-are held constant. Moreover, residential location affects health status indirectly in that nonmetro elders are more likely to have those characteristics associated with poorer health. Nonmetro elders are likely to be less educated and financially worse off than their metro counterparts, and lower socioeconomic status is strongly associated with poor health. Age and gender distribution of the elderly, by metro-nonmetro residence Characteristic Metro Nonmetro Age 70-74 75 -79 80-84 85+ Gender Male Female Percentage 42.2 29.8 16.9 11.1 37.6 62.4 39.5 32.9 17.0 10.6 41.5 58.5 The overall pattern of health transitions was similar by residential location (fig. 1). No metro-nonmetro differences were found in rates of institutional care or death over the 6-year interval. The major difference in health at the baseline (1984) was that nonmetro elders were more likely to have functional disabilities than metro elders; 26 percent of nonmetro elders had ADL difficulties in 1984, compared with 20 percent of metro elders. Among the nondisabled elderly at baseline, a higher proportion of nonmetro elders experienced both ADL and IADL difficulties by 1990; health status declined for 40 percent of nonmetro elders, compared with 37 percent of metro elders. Among the elderly who had one or more ADL difficulties at baseline (the most disabled), a lower proportion of nonmetro elders improved in health, and a slightly higher proportion entered nursing homes or died, compared with metro elders. The poorer initial health and greater decline in Family Economics and Nutrition Review Figure 1. Health status transitions of initially nondisabled elderly, by residence, 1990 Not disabled 1 + IADL's health of the nonmetro elderly may reflect in part the "aging in place" of many nonmetro communities, where the older and more disabled elderly persons remain in the community. Transitions in Living Arrangements Changes in the living arrangements of the elderly, including entering a nursing home, reflect adjustments to changes in their social support networks. In 1984, 48 percent of the elderly age 70 and older were living with their spouse; by 1990, only 31 percent were still living with their spouse. By 1990, 6 percent of the elderly had entered nursing homes, and 15 percent had died. Among those initially living with their spouse, 63 percent remained so by 1990. A higher proportion of those living with others in 1984, compared with their counterparts who initially lived with their spouse, ended up in nursing homes or died by 1990. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 1 + ADL's Both ADL's + IADL's Metro-Nonmetro Residence. The main difference in living arrangements of the elderly by metro-nonmetro residence is that in both 1984 and 1990 nonmetro elders were more likely to be living with their spouse and less likely to be living with others (table 2, p. 24). Similar proportions of metro and nonmetro elderly lived alone. Among those living with their spouse in 1984, nonmetro elders were more likely to remain living with their spouse over the 6-year interval. For those initially living alone, metro elders were more likely than nonmetro elders to remain living alone, but nonmetro elders were more likely to have died by 1990 ( 18 percent) than their metro counterparts (13 percent). Social support is associated with better outcomes over time, with fewer of those initially with their spouse entering nursing homes or dying 6 years later. • Metro B Nonmetro Nursing home Deceased Effect of Health on Transitions in Living Arrangements Initial Health Status. The initial health status of elderly persons is expected to affect subsequent living arrangements. Elderly persons without disabilities in 1984, regardless of initial living arrangement, were more likely to be living with their spouse or alone in 1990 and less likely to have entered nursing homes or to have died than those who had either ADL or IADL limitations at baseline (table 3, p. 25). The elderly who lived with their spouse and were not disabled in 1984 were more likely than other elderly to remain with their spouse (67 percent) and less likely to have entered a nursing home (4 percent) or to have died (13 percent) by 1990. Seven or 8 percent of those not initially living with their spouse had 23 Table 2. Transitions in living arrangements of the elderly 70 years and older, by metro-nonmetro residence Living arrangement Metro-nonmetro residence In 1984 Metro With spouse 46.9 Live alone 36.4 With others 16.7 Total 100.0 Nonmetro With spouse 52.0 Live alone 36.3 With others 11.7 Total 100.0 entered nursing homes by 1990. Fourteen percent of those initially living alone and 19 percent of those living with others had died by 1990. The combination of being disabled and living with others at baseline increases the risk of institutional care and/or death 6 years later. Changes in Health. Since initial health affects transitions in living arrangements, one would expect changes in health to operate in a similar way. Comparisons were made between the elderly whose health deteriorated and those whose health either improved or remained the same over the 6-year interval. By 1990, 46 percent of elders with unchanged health and 35 percent of those in better health were living with their spouse, whereas only 22 percent of those in 24 1990 Living arrangement With spouse Alone Percentage 61.5 15.1 1.1 67.7 1.8 16.1 29.6 34.4 64.5 13.7 1.8 61.8 3.6 20.4 34.6 32.0 declining health lived with their spouse (table 4, p. 26). Higher proportions of elderly persons in unchanged or better health lived alone in 1990, compared with those in poorer health. The elderly whose health deteriorated over the interval were less likely to live with their spouse and more likely to shift to nursing homes or to die. Among the elderly initially living with their spouse, 80 percent of those with unchanged health remained with their spouse over the 6-year interval, as did 70 percent of those in better health; only 49 percent of those in worse health remained with their spouse by 1990. Those whose health improved in the interval were more likely to be living alone in 1990 than either those with unchanged health or worse health. With Nursing others home Deceased 6.1 3.6 13.6 11.3 6.9 13.0 55.0 8.9 18.2 16.2 5.7 14.2 4.5 4.2 13.0 10.3 8.5 17.6 49.3 6.7 20.1 11.8 6.0 15.5 Among the elderly with declining health, those who initially lived with their spouse had better outcomes by 1990 than their counterparts who either lived alone or with others at baseline. Of elderly persons in declining health, a lower proportion who initially lived with their spouse had entered nursing homes by 1990, compared with those who either lived alone or with others at baseline. The social support from living with one's spouse appears to have a beneficial effect on subsequent transitions in living arrangements. Furthermore, the most pronounced change in living arrangements of the elderly is the increased institutionalization and death for elderly persons in declining health. Family Economics and Nutrition Review Table 3. Transitions in living arrangements of the elderly, by initial health status and living arrangements 1984 Living arrangement 1990 Living arrangement Health status With With Nursing Health status in 1984 spouse Alone others home Deceased Percentage Lived with spouse in 1984 Not disabled 74.7 66.6 15.0 5.4 2.4 10.5 1 + IADL's1 7.5 56.5 12.1 4.9 7.0 19.5 1 + ADL's2 17.9 48.3 14.8 6.8 7.4 22.8 Total 100.0 62.6 14.8 5.6 3.7 13.3 Lived alone in 1984 Not disabled 65.7 1.6 71.7 10.5 5.7 10.4 1 + IADL's 11.1 1.5 61.9 12.0 7.0 17.6 1 + ADL's 23.2 0.5 52.0 12.1 12.4 23.1 Total 100.0 1.3 66.0 11.1 7.4 14.2 Lived with others in 1984 Not disabled 52.5 3.1 20.2 60.2 4.0 12.5 1 + IADL's 15.6 0.8 17.0 52.3 12.0 17.9 1 + ADL's 31.9 1.4 11.6 43.8 13.9 29.3 Total 100.0 2.2 17.0 53.7 8.4 18.7 11 + IADL's: those with one or more IADL difficulties only. Instrumental activities of daily living (IADL's) include meal preparation, shopping for personal items, managing money, using the telephone, doing heavy housework, and doing light housework. 21 + ADL's: those with one or more ADL difficulties, may also have IADL's. Activities of daily living (ADL's) include bathing or showering, dressing, eating, transferring (getting in or out of a bed or chair), walking, getting outside, and using/getting to a toilet. Metro-Nonmetro Residence. The effect of changes in the health of elderly persons on transitions in living arrangements is similar by metro-nonmetro residence. For elders whose health either improved or remained unchanged over the interval, the main residential difference is that by 1990, nonmetro elders were more likely to live with their spouse and less likely to live alone or with others than metro elders (fig. 2, p. 27). 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Even nonmetro elders in deteriorating health were more likely to live with their spouse (25 percent) than metro elders (20 percent). Otherwise, the effect of declining health is the same by residential location, with 10 percent entering nursing homes and 25 percent dying. Marital Change Changes in marital status, especially widowhood, are good indicators of the shifting social support networks of elderly people. As previously seen, strong social support tends to have a beneficial effect on health. Also, married elderly persons living with their spouses are more likely to rate their health as very good to excellent 25 Table 4. Transitions in living arrangements of the elderly, by change in health status Health status 1984 Living change arrangement Better health With spouse 49.5 Live alone 36.6 With others 13.9 Total 100.0 No change in health With spouse 56.1 Live alone 32.3 With others 11.6 Total 100.0 Worse health With spouse 44.1 Live alone 38.2 With others 17.7 Total 100.0 -Indicates no elderly were in this living arrangement. and less likely to have difficulty performing the various activities of daily living than widowed, divorced, or separated persons. A higher proportion of elders with no change in marital status remained free of disability by 1990 (42 percent), compared with those who became widowed (38 percent) in the interval. Among the nondisabled elderly at baseline, fewer widows remained free of disability by 1990 26 1990 Living arrangement With spouse Alone Percentage 69.6 26.8 85.7 4.3 22.7 35.1 47.8 79.5 15.8 3.0 87.7 5.7 26.2 46.2 40.2 48.6 12.7 0.7 52.7 0.8 12.4 21.8 27.9 (48 percent) than those without a change in marital status (54 percent). At advanced ages, nearly all changes in marital status result from the death of one's spouse, which clearly affects the living arrangements of elderly persons. Widowhood involves a shift from living with one's spouse to living alone or with others (fig. 3). It also signals a shift to living in nursing homes. With Nursing others home Deceased 3.6 14.3 73 .0 17.1 4.7 9.3 68.2 13.6 6.7 6.9 25.1 11.5 12.1 23.1 46.8 12.5 27.6 15.6 9.9 24.8 Metro-Nonmetro Residence. Among the elderly without a change in marital status, nonmetro elders initially living with their spouse are slightly more likely than metro elders to remain living with their spouse (82 vs. 78 percent) and less likely to live with others (4 vs. 6 percent) (fig. 4, p. 28). Nonmetro widows are somewhat more likely to enter nursing homes than their metro counterparts (10 vs. 6 percent). In general, transitions in living arrangements by changes in marital status are similar by metro-nonmetro residence. Family Economics and Nutrition Review Figure 2. Transitions in living arrangements of the elderly, by residence and change in health status, 1990 In better health Metro Non metro No change in health Metro Non metro In worse health Metro 205°o 285% ~~ 24.6% Non metro • With spouse • Alone • With others Nursing home Deceased Figure 3. Transitions in living arrangements of the elderly initially living with their spouse, by change in marital status, 1990 Widowed by 1990 No change in marital status • With spouse • Alone • With others Nursing home 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Change in Residence Residential mobility among the elderly is lower than among the general population. Whereas 44 percent of all persons age 5 and older moved between 1984 and 1990, only 9 percent of elderly persons age 70 and older moved during this period. This percentage was only slightly higher in metro areas than in nonmetro areas. The most frequently given reasons for moving are associated with poor health, social support networks (remarriage, moving to be closer to family), fmancial considerations, and other/multiple reasons. Among the nonmetro elderly, 28 percent moved because of poor health, 18 percent moved to be closer to social support networks, 15 percent moved for financial reasons, and 18 percent for other or multiple reasons. A similar pattern is found among metro elderly persons . Since poor health is frequently given as a reason for moving, changes in health are expected to influence residential mobility. Among the metro elderly who were initially nondisabled, a lower proportion of movers had moved between counties (20 percent) than had moved locally. In contrast, among nonmetro elders who were initially free of disability, 31 percent of movers had moved between counties. Perhaps the metro elderly in better health moved to nonmetro areas after retirement for amenity-related reasons, whereas the mobility of more disabled nonmetro elders was motivated by the location of health care services in metro areas. Although type of residence at destination was not determined, some nonmetro elders, particularly those at greater distances from metro areas, may have moved to be closer to relatives and/or health care and social services in metro areas . 27 28 The elderly whose health deteriorated over the interval were less likely to live with their spouse and more likely to shift to nursing homes or to die. Figure 4. Transitions in living arrangements of the elderly initially living with their spouse, by residence and change in marital status, 1990 ~----t 3.4% 4.0% Metro Nonmetro Metro Nonmetro Widowed by 1990 No change in marital status • With spouse • Alone • With others D Nursing home Summary and Conclusion This study, based on 6-year rates of functional change, supports the findings of previous research showing that some elderly exhibit long-term functional improvement but more commonly, there is a decline in their functional ability. Both the initial level of functional ability and amount of change in functioning influenced changes in living arrangements and residential mobility. Furthermore, this research documents the link between functional decline and increased risk of institutionalization, death, and other changes in living arrangements and residence. The majority of elderly people living in the community are in good health, and about half of the elderly who were not disabled in 1984 remained so 6 years later. The level of initial disability affected health outcomes over time, with fewer of the initially nondisabled entering nursing homes or dying by 1990. In general, the nonmetro elderly had poorer initial health than their metro counterparts and experienced a somewhat greater decline in health status than their metro counterparts over a 6-year interval. Rates of institutional care and dying were similar by metrononmetro residence. Family Economics and Nutrition Review Elderly people make adjustments in their living arrangements in response to changes in their health and social support networks. Elderly persons initially living with their spouse were less likely to enter nursing homes or die within 6 years, compared with those who initially lived either alone or with others. Nonmetro elderly persons were more likely to be living with their spouse than the metro elderly, and such social support may ameliorate their poorer health to some extent. Having someone in the household, primarily one's spouse, who could offer assistance is beneficial to the health of the elderly and acts as a buffer to institutionalization. Regardless of metro-nonrnetro residence, deteriorating health results in an increased likelihood of entering a nursing home or dying in the interval. The elderly who were initially disabled and also living with others had the greatest risk of institutionalization and death. Advanced age and widowhood were also strong predictors of a person's entering a nursing home or dying. About 9 percent of the elderly moved between 1984 and 1990. Decisions to move are based on complex interrelated health and social motives. The most common reasons for moving are associated with poorer health, moving closer to family, financial considerations, and other/multiple reasons. Some nonmetro elders may move to be closer to relatives and to obtain health care services in metro areas. This may be especially true of the more disabled nonmetro elderly who relocate for both healthcare resource and social support considerations. A substantial and growing number of the elderly have, or are at risk of developing, chronic conditions that impair their ability to function independently. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 The ability or inability of the elderly to obtain help with difficult personal care activities is an important factor in determining which individuals are able toremain in the community and which must enter nursing homes or other institutions for needed care and assistance. The incidence and duration of disability has References important consequences for long-term care and federal spending as well as for effective local planning for health care and other services. Furthermore, residential moves that are strongly associated with health factors can have potentially large impacts on local public resources, particularly health and social services. 1. Biggar, J.C. 1980. Who moved among the elderly, 1965 to 1970: A comparison of types of older movers. Research on Aging 2(1):73-91. 2. Branch, L.G. and Ku, L. 1989. Transition probabilities to dependency, institutionalization, and death among the elderly over a decade. Journal of Aging and Health 1(3):370-408. 3. Bryant, E.S. and El-Attar, M. 1984. Migration and redistribution of the elderly: A challenge to community services. The Gerontologist 24:634-640. 4. Crimmins, E.M. and Saito, Y. 1990. Getting Better and Getting Worse: Transitions in Functional Status Among Older Americans. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Toronto, Canada. 5. Heaton, T.B ., Clifford, W.B., and Fuguitt, G.V. 1980. Changing patterns of retirement migration: Movement between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. Research on Aging 2(1):93-104. 6. Kovar, M.G. 1987. The Longitudinal Study of Aging: Some Estimates of Change Among Older Americans. Proceedings of the 1987 Public Health Conference on Records and Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics. DHHS Publication No. 88-1214. 7. Kovar, M.G. 1988. Aging in the eighties, people Hving alone-two years later. Advance Data from Vital and Health Statistics No. 149. National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD. 8. Litwak, E. and Longino, Jr., C. 1987. Migration patterns among the elderly: A developmental perspective. Gerontologist 27:266-272. 9. Longino, Jr., C., Wiseman, R. , Biggar, J., and Flynn, C. 1984. Aged metropoHtannonmetropolitan migration streams over three census decades. Journal of Gerontology 39:721-729. 10. Manton, K.G. 1988. A longitudinal study of functional change and mortality in the United States. Journal Of Gerontology: Social Sciences 43(5):153-161. 11. Patrick, C. H. 1980. Health and migration of the elderly. Research on Aging 2(2):233-241. 12. Rogers, C. C. 1993. Health Status and Use of Health Care Services by the Older Population. Rural Development Research Report No. 86. 13. Speare, Jr., A., Avery, R., and Lawton, L. 1991. Disability, residential mobiHty, and changes in living arrangements. Journal of Gerontology 46(3): 133-142. 29 30 Trends in Food and Alcohol Consumption Away From Home By Nancy E. Schwenk Consumer Economist Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion In the early 1970's, American households spent about one-fifth of their food dollar on food away from home. From the mid-1980's to the present, households have been spending about twice that proportion on food away from home. According to the 1992 Consumer Expenditure Survey, U.S. households allocated 38 percent of their food dollar to food away from home and 46 percent of their alcohol dollar to alcohol consumed outside the home. Consumers who spent the greatest share of their food dollar on food away from home were in the highest income quintile, under age 25, or living alone. Sales at eating and drinking places were up 134 percent between 1980 and 1993, with a corresponding 48-percent increase in the number of employees at these establishments. Factors that influence the decision to dine out include the increasing numbers of women in the labor force, the trend toward more one-person households, price competition among restaurants, and the interest in restaurants that offer some type of entertainment. Consumption trends when dining out, demographic influences, and other issues of concern to nutritionists, food policymakers, and restaurateurs are presented. e make food choices many times each day-what to eat, how much to eat, when to eat, and where to eat. Food and drinks can be purchased at food retail stores and consumed either at home (in someone's home) or purchased away from home in restaurants and other establishments. A number of factors influence our choice of where to eat, including time, convenience, cost, and nutrition. Many people, after a full day at work, Jack the energy or interest needed to cook. Very often, people dine in restaurants because they make a last-minute decision and just feel like going out or they want to socialize with friends and family. This article examines various trends related to food and drinks purchased away from home, including food prices; aggregate, household, and government expenditures; and restaurant trends-food retailing and findings from surveys of restaurant customers. Prices In 1994, prices for food, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.4 percent over 1993 (table 1). This annual increase was slightly less than the 2.6-percent increase for all items during the same period. The price of food at eating places-food away from home-was up 1.7 percent, Family Economics and Nutrition Review Table 1. Annual percent change in prices of food and alcohol, 1993-94 and average annual change, 1984-93. Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers [1982-84=100] Annual percent Average annual change percent change Group 1993-94 1984-93 All items 2.6 3.8 Food 2.4 3.5 At home 2.9 3.5 Away 1.7 3.7 Lunch 1.7 3.7 Dinner 1.8 3.5 Other/snacks 1.6 3.8 Alcohol 1.3 4.1 At home .2 3.6 Away 2.5 5.3 Source: U.S. Depamnent of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI Detailed Report, January issues. whereas the price of food purchased at supermarkets and other grocery storesfood at home-was up 2.9 percent. Between 1984 and 1993, the average annual percent change in prices for all goods and services was 3.8 percent, compared with 3.5 percent for food at home and 3.7 percent for food away from home. Compared with the other major components of the CPI, prices for food increased less in 1994 than housing (2.5 percent), transportation (3 .0 percent), medical care (4.8 percent), entertainment (2.9 percent), or personal and educational expenses (5.9 percent) (14). Since 1989, the increa e in the overall CPI has been greater than the increase for food away from home (fig. 1, p. 32). In 1994, prices for alcohol, as measured by the CPI, rose 1.3 percent, less than the average annual increase of 4.1 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 percent between 1984 and 1993 (table 1). The price of alcohol away from home increased 2.5 percent in 1994, compared with an increase of only 0.2 percent for alcohol at home (15). Expenditures Aggregate Expenditures Americans spent $197.8 billion on eating away from home in 1993, an increase of 9 percent over 1992 (table 2, p. 32). The expenditure for food at home in 1993 was $329.5 billion, only 2 percent more than was spent in 1992. As a portion of disposable personal income, food away from home increased from 3.7 percent in 1970 to 4.2 percent in 1993; food at home, however, decreased from 10.3 percent of disposable personal income in 1970 to 7.0 percent in 1993. Although dollars spent on food increased greatly over the years, the gain in disposable income was greater. Americans spent $197.8 billion on eating away from home in 1993, an increase of 9 percent over 1992. 31 After adjustment for inflation, food expenditures per capita increased 21 percent between 1970 and 1993, while per capita income increased 45 percent. As a result, the proportion allocated to total food (home and away) dropped 19 percent between 1970 and 1993. As income rises, the proportion allocated to food goes down, as there is more money to spend on other discretionary items (12). Americans spent $85.5 billion on alcohol in 1993, of which $37.4 billion was on alcoholic drinks consumed away from home at eating and drinking places; the remainder was spent on packaged alcohol purchased at liquor stores, food stores, and convenience stores. Although there was an increase from 1992 of $732 million, or 2 percent, in spending on alcohol away from home, this was offset by a 2-percent decrease of about $1.1 billion spent on alcohol at home (12). Household Expenditures The 1992 Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE), conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was used to obtain data on households' food and beverage purchases away from home. 1 Expenditures on meals and snacks eaten away from home in 1992 averaged $1,631 per household (table 3). Whites and others2 spent $1,717, whereas Blacks spent 1The Consumer Expenditure Survey defines food away from home as all meals or snacks purchased in restaurants, cafeterias, cafes, drive-ins, carryouts, and vending machines, including trips, plus meals as pay, school lunches, special catered affairs, and meals away from home on trips. Food at home is the total expenditures for food and grocery stores or other food stores (excluding nonfood items) and food prepared by the consumer. 2Category includes people who are White, American Indian, Aleut, Eskimo, Asian, and Pacific Islander. 32 Figure 1. Changes in consumer prices of all items and food away, 1984-94 Annual percent change in CPI-U 6 5 4 3 2 I \; I All items Food away 0 1~9784~----~876------~88~----~90~----~92~-----9~4 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPJ Detailed Report, January issues. Table 2. Food expenditures by families and individuals as a share of disposable personal income, selected years, 1970-93 Disposable Expenditures for food Year personal income At home Away from home Total Billion$ Billion$ Percent Billion$ Percent Billion$ 1970 722.0 74.2 10.3 26.4 3.7 100.6 1975 1,150.9 115.2 10.0 45.9 4.0 161.1 1980 1,952.9 179.1 9.2 85.2 4.4 264.4 1985 2,943.0 230.7 7.8 129.4 4.4 360.1 1990 4,050.5 306.7 7.6 172.4 4.3 479.1 1991 4,236.6 320.6 7.6 174.9 4.1 495.5 1992 4,505.8 322.1 7.1 181.7 4.0 503.7 1993 4,688.7 329.5 7.0 197.8 4.2 527.4 Source: Putnam, J.J. and Allshouse, J.E., 1994, Food Consumption, Prices, and Expenditures, 1970-1993, Statistical Bulletin No. 915, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Family Economics and Nutrition Review Table 3. Average annual expenditures of CE households on food away from home, by demographic characteristics, 1992 Demographic characteristic All Income quintiles Lowest 2nd 3rd 4th Highest Age (years) Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and over Composition of household Husband and wife only Husband and wife with children Single parent (at least one child under age 18) One person Race White and other Black Region Northeast Midwest South West Urbanicity Urban Rural Mean dollars $1,631 612 1,030 1,464 2,092 3,168 1,181 1,732 2,017 2,131 1,521 987 1,921 2,170 1,131 1,004 1,717 953 1,686 1,610 1,550 1,730 1,675 1,349 Source: U.S. Department of lAbor, Bureau of lAbor Statistics, 1992, Consumer Expenditure Survey, unpublished data. 1995 Vol. 8 No. 4 $953. Households in the West spent the most ($1,730), whereas households in the South spent the least ($1,550). Spending on food away from home increased as income increased. Those who had higher than average expenditures included married-couple households (both with and without children), homeowners, and those in urban areas, whereas those who had lower than average expenditures included households headed by someone either under age 25 or age 65 or older, single-parent households, single persons, and those in rural areas (14). Overall, households spent 38 percent of their food dollar on food eaten away from home in 1992 (fig. 2, p. 34). A similar proportion was spent in 1991, down from the 42-percent share spent in both 1990 and 1989. By comparison, about 20 percent of the food dollar in the early 1970's was spent on food away from home. Households that allocated a greater than average portion of their food dollar to food away from home included those in the highest two income quintiles, those headed by a person age 54 and younger, husband-wife only households, and Whites and others. One-person households also allocate a very large portion of their food dollar ( 44 percent) to eating out (14). The number of oneperson households increased from 21.4 million in 1970 to 41.8 million in 1992 (13). Households that allocated a smaller than average portion to food away from home included those in the lowest three income quintiles, those headed by a person age 55 and older, those families with children at home (both husband-wife and single-parent), and Blacks (14). 33 Figure 2. Portion of the food dollar allocated to food away from home, 1992 Demographic characteristic All Income quintiles Lowest 2nd 3rd 4th Highest Age Under25 25.34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and over Race White and other Black Percent 38 ................... 27 31 r-----------------~-. 36 41 45 45 41 39 41 35 r---------------------,----' 31 39 .................. . 30 • ~ All household average • < All household average Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1992, Consumer Expenditure Survey, unpublished data. In 1992, 46 percent of alcohol expenditures were for alcohol consumed away from home (fig. 3). This proportion was highest in the highest income quintile, in the two youngest age categories (under 25 years old and 25 to 34 years), and among those employed in technical/ sales or managerial/professional occupations or self-employed (14). 34 According to the 1992 Consumer Expenditure Survey, dinner accounted for nearly half of dining-out expenditures, lunch for about one-third, with the remainder consisting of snack, breakfast, and brunch expenditures (fig. 4, p. 36). Blacks spent equally on lunch and dinner out, whereas Whites and others spent 35 percent more on dinner out than on lunch out. By occupational groups, managers and professionals spent the most on breakfasts and lunches out, whereas construction workers spent the most on snacks. Retired people spent the least on dining out (14). The cost of food eaten on out-of-town trips in 1992 averaged $167 for all households. Households residing in the Family Economics and Nutrition Review Figure 3. Portion of the alcohol dollar allocated to alcohol away from home, 1992 Demographic characteristic All Income quintile Lowest 2nd 3rd 4th Highest Age Under25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and over Occupation Self-employed Managerial/professional Technical/sales Service worker Construction worker Operator Retired Percent 46 44 39 45 45 47 53 57 43 46 34 31 49 50 52 44 39 39 33 • ;;:.. All household average • < All household average Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1992, Consumer Expenditure SuNey, unpublished data. West spent the most ($201), whereas households in the South spent the least ($139). Another type of expenditure for food away from home is school lunches, which averaged $46 for all households. Husband/wife families with an oldest child between 6 and 17 years had the highest average school-lunch expenditure ($184) (14). 1995 Vol. 8 No. 4 Governmental Expenditures In addition to household expenditures for school lunches, households make further expenditures on food away from home indirectly through their tax dollars. The Federal Government, in cooperation with State and local governments, operates five food assistance programs to provide meals and snacks to preschool and school-age children.3 Expenditures for these programs-the National School Lunch, School Breakfast, Special Milk, Child and Adult Care, and Summer Food Service Programs, totaled $7.1 billion in fiscal 1993, a 6.6-percent increase over fiscal 1992 (3). 3Food assistance programs, such as the Food Stamp Program and WIC-the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, lower food-at-home expenditures if their value is not included. 35 The largest of these programs, the National School Lunch Program, served an average of 24.9 million children per day in fiscal 1993 at a cost of $4.1 billion, up from $3.9 billion spent and 24.7 million children per day served in fiscal 1992. The School Breakfast Program served an average of 4.9 million children per day in fiscal 1992 and 5.3 million children per day in fiscal 1993. Expenditures rose from $787 million in fiscal 1992 to $868 million in fiscal 1993. Many of these meals are available free or at reduced prices to economically qualified households (3). The Child and Adult Care Food Program serves meals to children in nonresidential child-care centers and family daycare homes and to chronically impaired adults and persons over age 60 enrolled in adult day-care centers. The program served 1.3 billion meals in fiscall993 with an average daily participation of 2.06 million people. This was up from 1.2 billion meals served and an average daily participation of 1.93 million in fiscal 1992 (3). Restaurant Trends Food RetailingSales and Employment Between 1980 and 1990, retail sales at eating places rose 120 percent and continued to climb through 1993. Retail sales at drinking places increased 22 percent between 1980 and 1990, peaked in 1992, then fell 2 percent in 1993 (1 3). Declining alcohol consumption, with price stability, was responsible for declining alcohol sales. Consumption of alcohol by the adult population age 21 years and over, which peaked in 1981 at 43.1 gallons per person, declined 8 percent between 1990 and 1993-from 36 Figure 4. Allocation of dining-out expenditures, 1992 47% Dinner Snacks, drinks Breakfast, brunch Source: Calculated from U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1992, Consumer Expenditure Survey, unpublished data. 40.0 to 36.8 gallons. The consumption of distilled spirits declined 14 percent, and wine and beer consumption declined 7 percent during this time (12). Millions of Americans are dependent on the food retailing industry for their livelihood-about 3 in 10 employees in service occupations work in food preparation and service (13). In 1993, 6.9 million workers were employed at the over 400,000 eating and drinking places in the United States, up from 6.5 million workers in 1990 and 4.6 million in 1980 (table 4). The average hourly earnings of production workers in this industry in 1993 was $5.35, up from $3.69 in 1980. The number of employees at eating and drinking places grew at an annual rate of 4.5 percent during the 1980's but is projected to slow to a growth rate of 1.9 percent between 1990 and 2005, based on assumptions of moderate growth. Specific job categories that are projected to grow faster than this rate are: Restaurant cooks (2.8 percent annual increase), food counter and fountain workers (2.3 percent), dining room and cafeteria attendants and bar helpers (2.3 percent), short-order and fast-food cooks (2.2 percent), food service managers (2.2 percent), and food preparation workers (2.1 percent). The growth rate for waiters is projected to slow to I. 7 percent (1 3). Family Economics and Nutrition Review T~ble. 4. Number of employees and average earnings at eating and drmkmg places, selected years, 1980-93 Production workers 1 Total employees average earnings Year (in thousands) (dollars per hour) 1980 4,626 $3.69 1990 6,509 4.97 1991 6,571 5.18 1992 6,485 5.29 1993 6,863 5.35 I Over 90 percent of employees at eating and drinking places are classified as production workers. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1994, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1994, [I 14th ed.] Findings from Surveys of Restaurant Customers Impulse Meals. A recent Roper Starch Worldwide survey found that 71 percent of Americans would eat most dinners at home, even if money were no object. However, 56 percent had eaten dinner at a restaurant or fast-food place during the week preceding the survey. Only 16 percent of survey respondents had not eaten out during the previous month. Most restaurant meals appear to be bought on impulse, serving as a timeand/ or labor-saving device for many. According to Waldrop (16), the most recent decision to eat out for 51 percent of Americans was made at the last minute. The most likely age group to decide to eat out on impulse was young adults under age 30 (64 percent). Seventy-five percent of trips to fastfood restaurants and 42 percent of dinners at full-service restaurants were last-minute decisions. The most frequent reason given by Roper respondents for eating dinner at a restaurant was that the respondent "just felt like going out." The next most frequent reason was "socializing with friends" (16). 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Generation X. American consumers born between 1965 and 1976, often referred to as "Generation X," allocate nearly 25 percent of their discretionary income to eating out, and they go out to dinner more than any other age group, according to the National Restaurant Association's Consumer Reports on Eating Share Trends. At all types of restaurants, this age group prefers Mexican food, hamburgers, and sandwiches, with fast food accounting for 80 percent of their restaurant visits. These young adults tend to be less concerned about health and nutrition and are less likely than middle-age adults to consciously restrict their sugar and cholesterol intake. Generation X is interested in restaurants that offer all-you-can-eat specials, as well as restaurants with a lively, entertaining atmosphere, such as display cooking or live music (5). Men. Men, particularly those age 55 or older, are likely to be frequent patrons of lower check (average check under $10 per person) table-service restaurants. According to Nutrition and Restaurants: A Consumer Perspective, one-third of this sex/age group ate at this type of restaurant more than once a week. In contrast, only 13 percent of women reported doing so (11). Fast-food restaurants were also more popular among men, particularly those under age 35. Twenty-five percent of men, and nearly 33 percent of men ages 18 to 24, frequented fast-food places more than once a week, compared with 13 percent of women. Those age 55 and older were the least likely group to patronize fast-food restaurants. Men ages 35 to 54 were the group most likely to frequent self-service cafeterias or buffets, with 14 percent patronizing these establishments more than once a week (11). Carryout food from all types of restaurants was popular among men, with 20 percent reporting having purchased a carryout meal more than once a week. This figure rose to 30 percent for men ages 18 to 34. Also popular among these young men was purchasing a freshly prepared meal from a supermarket, convenience store, or deli-17 percent reported purchasing this type of meal more than once a week, compared with 12 percent of all men and 6 percent of all women. Delivery of meals from fast-food or table-service restaurants was used by only 2 percent of consumers more than once a week but by 39 percent at least once a month. Home delivery was reported most often by families with children and men ages 18 to 34 (11). 37 38 When dining out for a special occasion, 55 percent of adults were not concerned with nutrition . .. Menu Choices. According to the National Restaurant Association's 1993 survey, Nutrition and Restaurants: A Consumer Perspective, most Americans would like to see restaurants offer a wider array of healthy menu selections, including food offerings for people on restrictive diets. However, restaurant patrons' behavior does not always mirror their concerns. Only 55 percent of adults reported that they pay attention to the nutritional content of the food they eat. In addition, half of adults said they eat whatever they want whenever they feel like it. When dining out for a special occasion, 55 percent of adults were not concerned with nutrition, a proportion that had not changed substantially since 1986 when the study was first undertaken (10). Over three-fourths of respondents indicated that restaurants should offer different sized portions for different sized appetites, lessening the tendency to overeat. The National Restaurant Association's 1993 Menu Analysis compared 66 representative restaurant menus from 1988 with 1993 menus from the same restaurants: menus offering entrees with more than one portion size, such as "queen-size" and "king-size" steak, increased 12 percent during this period (10). Whereas, the 1986 survey reported consumers' concerns about sodium in menu items, the 1992 survey revealed consumers' concerns about dietary fat ( 10 ). However, customers are often unwilling to sacrifice the satisfying taste of fat when dining out, regardless of what they say to market researchers. For example, recent attempts by the fastfood industry to offer lowfat hamburgers, skinless chicken, and light Mexican fare were not received well by consumers. The targeted audience of healthconscious consumers who do not ordinarily frequent fast-food restaurants did not materialize. These marketing failures point out that consumers are very inconsistent when it comes to fat in foods-they tell researchers they are more interested in lowfat foods than they really are (1). Another way in which restaurants are addressing customers' concerns about fat is by offering a wider selection of meatless entrees, particularly pasta. The number of meatless main dishes on menus was up 23 percent between 1988 and 1993. In addition, 71 percent of surveyed customers reported that restaurants are usually responsive to special requests, such as serving salad dressing on the side. Consumers may have had their fill of nutrition advice from the news media-nearly half of respondents said they were tired of hearing about which foods are good or bad for them (10). Ethnic Entrees. The availability of ethnic-inspired entrees on restaurant menus rose from 37 percent of menu offerings in 1988 to 47 percent in 1993, according to the 1993 Menu Analysis. Most popular among ethnic offerings were Mexican and Italian, although Chinese, Thai, and Japanese were each up about 10 percentage points during this period. Ethnic food may address two possible consumer concerns: nutrition and cost. Unlike meat-centered American dishes, many ethnic dishes use meat only as a minor ingredient, if at all. Meatless dishes tend to be among the lowest priced menu entrees (8). Family Economics and Nutrition Review Pasta. Pasta orders in restaurants increased 38 percent between 1989 and 1993. During this time, the number of pasta entrees on menus rose nearly 60 percent. In addition, 90 percent of consumers surveyed in the 1993 Menu Analysis believed that pasta is a good value for the money and a healthy choice. Pasta experienced its greatest growth in casual-dining restaurants, where orders increased 69 percent from 1989 to 1993. Pasta also gained in popularity in fine dining, or higher check (average check over $1 0) restaurants, as well as in fast-food restaurants. Establishments offering pasta dishes are responding to customer demand for vegetarian alternatives-over 40 percent offered meatless pasta dishes in 1993, up from about 25 percent in 1988. Restaurant patrons with household incomes of $60,000 or more and those with professional or managerial occupations were the most likely groups to order pasta, whereas blue-collar customers were the least likely (6). Fast Food and Pizza. Several fast-food hamburger chains have added "value meals," also called "combo meals," to their menus. According to the National Restaurant Association, these value meals, which usually consist of a large sandwich, French fries, and a soft drink, are especially popular at dinner with a bargain-hungry public. Customers may have shifted some of their allegiance from pizza places to quick-service hamburger places in 1992. According to Edmondson (2), the market for pizza is now mature, having reached a low but stable growth rate. Customer counts at pizza places were up only 1 percent in 1992, compared with a 5-percent gain in 1989 and 3-percent gains in both 1990 and 1991. Customer counts at quick-service hamburger places were 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 up 3 percent in 1992. In an effort to compete with value meals, the major pizza chains added bigger pizzas to their menus (9). Quick-service pizza restaurants are heavily concentrated in the Northeast and the Midwest, whereas many areas of the South have none. After rapid growth over several decades, the number of stores (about 58,000) has not changed since 1992. The most frequent customers are young, affluent, collegeeducated adults (2). Coffee. In 1970, Americans drank 33.4 gallons of coffee per person, but by 1988, consumption had fallen to 25.7 gallons (12). However, the popularity of specialty coffees and the emergence of coffee bars helped per capita consumption reach 27.8 gallons in 1992. Coffee bars may serve as alternatives to traditional alcohol bars for socializing. Operators of table-service restaurants reported in the National Restaurant Association's 1994 Tableservice Operator Survey that customers were ordering more specialty and premium coffees in 1993, particularly in restaurants with higher average checks. Coffee consumption at fast-food places increased by 36 percent between 1980 and 1993. Fastfood places accounted for 42 percent of coffee consumed away from home in 1993. Coffee is increasing in popularity among young adults and even teenagers. There is a growing perception among younger consumers that coffee can be enjoyed throughout the day, not only at mealtime. Coffee ordered as a betweenmeal snack has risen steadily in recent years, whereas coffee ordered with lunch or dinner has declined. In 1993, 39 percent of coffee orders occurred with breakfast, 24 percent with lunch, 22 percent with dinner, and 15 percent as snacks (4). Premium Beer. During the 1990's, restaurant sales for all types of beer have been increasing, according to the National Restaurant Association's Tableservice Trends 1994. Although consumption per person dropped 7 percent between 1990 and 1993, this was offset by a price increase of 16 percent. In particular, consumption of premium beers--craft-brewed, made by a microbrewery or regional brewer in small batches-rose. The number of craft breweries operating in the United States grew from 30 in 1985 to 382 in 1993. The number of barrels of craft-brewed beer increased 40 percent between 1992 and 1993, whereas there was little change in the number of barrels of total beer sold domestically. Consumers seem to be more willing to pay premium prices for beer than for other products-over 40 percent of surveyed adults believed that some blends of beer are different and worth paying more for. According to the Consumer Reports on Eating Share Trends, between 1989 and 1993, the proportion of consumers with household incomes of $60,000 or more who ordered beer in restaurants increased from 15 to 25 percent. At the same time, the proportion of consumers with household incomes of less than $40,000 who ordered beer at restaurants declined from 58 to 45 percent. During the 1980's, 43 percent of beer orders in restaurants were from customers with professional or managerial occupations; 22 percent were from blue-collar workers; 20 percent were from agricultural workers, retirees, or unemployed people; and 15 percent were from those in clerical or sales jobs (7). 39 Summary For many years, prices of food away from home have risen more slowly than prices for most other major commodities, adding to the appeal of dining out. Demographic characteristics that influence household expenditure for food away from home include: Income (spending increases as income increases), race (higher among non-Black households), age of household head (highest among those ages 25 to 64), household composition (higher in married-couple families both with and without children), and region (higher in the West and in urban areas). Alcohol consumption among adults has declined over the past decade. Restaurant trends include: a deeper understanding of consumers' requests for wider menu selections and choices of p
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Title | Family Economics and Nutrition Review [Volume 8, Number 4] |
Date | 1995 |
Contributors (group) | Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion (U.S.) |
Subject headings |
Home economics--United States--Periodicals Nutrition policy--United State--Periodicals |
Type | Text |
Format | Pamphlets |
Physical description | v. : $b ill. ; $c 28 cm. |
Publisher | Washington, D.C. : U.S. Dept. of Agriculture |
Language | en |
Contributing institution | Martha Blakeney Hodges Special Collections and University Archives, UNCG University Libraries |
Source collection | Government Documents Collection (UNCG University Libraries) |
Rights statement | http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/NoC-US/1.0/ |
Additional rights information | NO COPYRIGHT - UNITED STATES. This item has been determined to be free of copyright restrictions in the United States. The user is responsible for determining actual copyright status for any reuse of the material. |
SUDOC number | A 77.245:8/4 |
Digital publisher | The University of North Carolina at Greensboro, University Libraries, PO Box 26170, Greensboro NC 27402-6170, 336.334.5482 |
Full-text | Feature Articles 2 Relationship of Knowledge of Food Group Servings Recommendations to Food Group Consumption Joanne F. Guthrie and Lois H. Fulton Health Status Transitions of the Elderly, By Residential Location: 1984 to 1990 Carolyn C. Rogers Trends in Food and Alcohol Consumption Away From Home Nancy E. Schwenk Research Summaries 41 Relationship Between Cigarette Smoking and Other High-Risk Behaviors Among Our Nation's Youth 44 How Does Living Alone Affect Dietary Quality? 47 Household Debt Regular Items 50 Charts From Federal Data Sources 52 Recent Legislation Affecting Families 53 Research and Evaluation Activities in USDA 56 Estimated Annual Expenditures on Children by Families, 1994 63 Data Sources 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 Journal Abstracts Cost of Food at Home Consumer Prices Guidelines for Authors Index of Authors in 1995 Issues Index of Articles in 1995 Issues Reviewers for 1995 U.S DEPOSITORY .P..ROPERTY OF TH LIBRAR A 22199 The University f or h Carolln t reensboro UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Volume 8, Number 4 1995 Dan Glickman, Secretary U.S. Depa1tment of Agriculture Ellen Haas, Under Secretary Food, utrition, and Consumer Services Eileen Kennedy, Executive Director Center for utrition Policy and Promotion Jay Hirschman, Director Nutrition Policy and Analysis Staff Editorial Board Mohamed Abdei-Ghany University of Alabama Rhona Applebaum Nati onal Food Processors Associati on Johanna Dwyer ew England Medical Center Jean Mayer USDA Human utri tion Research Center on Aging at Tufts Uni versity Helen Jensen Iowa State University Janet C. King Western Human Nutrition Research Center U.S. Department of Agriculture C. J. Lee Kentucky State University Rebecca Mullis Georgia State Uni versity Suzanne Murphy Uni versity of Californi a-Berkeley Donald Rose Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Ben Senauer University of Minnesota Laura Sims Uni versity of Maryland Retia Walker Uni versit y of Kentucky Editor Joan C. Courtless Editorial Assistant Jane W. Fleming Family Economics and Nutrition Review is written and published each quarter by the Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. The Secretary of Agriculture has determined that publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of the Department. This publication is not copyrighted. Contents may be reprinted without permission, but credit to Family Economics and Nutrition Review would be appreciated. Use of commercial or trade names does not imply approval or constiMe endorsement by USDA. Family Economics and Nutrition Review is indexed in the following databases: AGRICOLA, Ageline, Economic Literature Index, ERIC, Family Resources, PAIS, and Sociological Abstracts. Family Economics and Nutrition Review is for sale by the Superintendent of Documents. Subscription price is $8.00 per year ($1 0.00 for foreign addresses). Send subscription orders and change of address to Superintendent of Documents, P.O. Box 371954, Pittsburgh, PA 15250-7954. (See subscription form on p. 71.) Suggestions or comments concerning this publication should be addressed to: Joan C. Courtless, Editor, Family Economics and Nutrition Review, Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion, USDA, 1120 20th St., NW, Sutte 200 North Lobby, Washington, DC 20036. Phone(202)60€"4816. USDA prohibtts discrimination in tts programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-2791 . To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agricu~ure, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TOO). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion Feature Articles 2 18 30 Relationship of Knowledge of Food Group Servings Recommendations to Food Group Consumption Joanne F. Guthrie and Lois H. Fulton Health Status Transitions of the Elderly, By Residential Location: 1984 to 1990 Carolyn C. Rogers Trends in Food and Alcohol Consumption Away From Home Nancy E. Schwenk Research Summaries 41 Relationship Between Cigarette Smoking and Other High-Risk Behaviors Among Our Nation's Youth 44 How Does Living Alone Affect Dietary Quality? 47 Household Debt Regular Items 50 52 53 56 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 Charts From Federal Data Sources Recent Legislation Affecting Families Research and Evaluation Activities in USDA Estimated Annual Expenditures on Children by Families, 1994 Data Sources Journal Abstracts Cost of Food at Home Consumer Prices Guidelines for Authors Index of Authors in 1995 Issues Index of Articles in 1995 Issues Reviewers for 1995 Volume 8, Number 4 1995 2 Feature Articles Relationship of Knowledge of Food Group Servings Recommendations to Food Group Consumption By Joanne F. Guthrie Nutritionist Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion Lois H. Fulton Supervisory Home Economist Agricultural Research Service (retired) The USDA Food Guide provides recommended numbers of servings of five major food groups: (1) bread, cereal, rice, and pasta; (2) vegetables; (3) fruit; (4) milk, yogurt, and cheese; and (5) meat, poultry, fish, dry beans, eggs, and nuts. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship of knowledge of recommended servings of the five major food groups to reported food group consumption among female adult meal planners using data from the 1990 and 1991 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals and Diet and Health Knowledge Survey conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Because about 99 percent of Diet and Health Knowledge Survey respondents gave incorrect responses for grain products, the effects of correct information on consumption of this group could not be analyzed. For the remaining four food groups studied, knowledge of serving recommendations was significantly associated with food group consumption after controlling for the effects of a number of other factors that may influence food consumption behavior. Results provide support for the use of a food guide-based approach to dietary guidance. ITJ he science of nutrition attempts to answer the question, "What should we eat to be healthy?" That question can be addressed on two levels: the scientific level and the consumer level. At the scientific level, recommended amounts of essential nutrients and other ctietary components have been established by expert groups, such as the National Academy of Sciences (19,20). Consumers, however, choose foods rather than nutrients. To aid consumers in selecting a healthful diet, nutritionists have traditionally provided guidance in terms of food choices. A food guide translates recommendations on intakes of nutrients and other dietary components into recommendations for food consumption, with the goal of making nutrition advice understandable and usable to consumers. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first food guide for the general public in 1916. As Family Economics and Nutrition Review scientific knowledge increased, USDA developed new food guides to accommodate new information on nutrition needs (34). In 1985, USDA published its current food guide (30). To develop this guide, USDA used criteria based on the Recommended Dietary Allowances established by the National Academy of Sciences (21) and the Dietary Guidelines for Americans-the official statement of Federal dietary guidance policy published by the USDA and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (32). The overall goal of the USDA Food Guide is to offer consumers guidance on planning a total diet that would be both adequate in essential nutrients and moderate in food components for which excess intakes are associated with health risk (e.g., fat, saturated fatty acids, cholesterol, sodium, and sugars). The USDA Food Guide provides recommended numbers of servings to be consumed each day from each of the five major food groups. For the bread, cereal, rice, and pasta group (called the "grain group" in this article, for brevity), 6 to 11 servings per day are recommended. Three to 5 servings from the vegetable group and 2 to 4 servings from the fruit group are recommended. For the milk, yogurt, and cheese group ("milk group"), 2 to 3 servings are recommended. The recommendation for the meat, poultry, fish, dry beans, eggs, and nuts group ("meat and beans group") is 2 to 3 servings per day or the amounts of these foods that would be equivalent to a total of 5 to 7 ounces of cooked lean meat, poultry, or fish daily. In addition, the USDA Food Guide recommends moderation in consumption of fats, oils, sweets, and sodium. 1995 Vol. 8 No. 4 Figure 1. The Food Guide Pyramid: A guide to daily choices Fats, Oils, & Sweets USE SPARINGLY Milk, Yogurt, &Cheese Group 2·3 SERVINGS Vegetable Group 3-5 SERVINGS Meat, Poultry, Fish, Dry Beans, Eggs, & Nuts Group 2·3 SERVINGS Fruit Group 2-4 SERVINGS Bread, Cereal, Rice, & Pasta Group 6-11 SERVINGS Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The USDA Food Guide was used in several USDA educational publications during the 1980's and wa included in the 1990 edition of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. It gained further prominence in 1992 with the release of the Food Guide Pyramid (fig. 1 ), a new graphic representation of the Food Guide (31). After consumer testing, thi graphic was selected because it was found to be an effective visual image for communicating the information contained in the Food Guide (6,35). Since its publication, it has been widely disseminated not only as part of USDA publications but also as part of many educational and promotional materials developed by other public and private sector groups (35). Given that so much emphasis has been placed on the use of food guides for nutrition education, it would be useful to know to what extent a knowledge of food guide recommendations is associated with actual food choices. Results of some studies provide evidence that knowledge of food group recommendations is associated with eating a healthier diet. Butler and Raymond (7) found that low-income consumers who were able to name the four food groups defined by the "Basic 4" food guide developed by USDA in 1956 (34) had better diets than those who could not. Several evaluation studies have shown the Expanded Food and Nutrition Education Program (EFNEP), a nutrition education program for low-income consumers that u es a food-group-oriented approach to 3 4 Given that so much emphasis has been placed on the use of food guides for nutrition education, it would be useful to know to what extent a knowledge of food guide recommendations is associated with actual food choices. teaching nutrition, to be effective in improving the diets of participants (2,28 ). EFNEP, however, also teaches other knowledge and skills, such as food shopping and preparation, that may also contribute to its success. Most recently, in a longitudinal study of Australian consumers, Smith et al. (25) found knowledge of the Australian food guide to be a significant predictor of the consumers' likelihood of making positive dietary changes following a nutrition education program. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship of knowledge of recommended servings of major food groups to their reported consumption among female meal planners using data from the USDA's 1990-91 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) and Diet and Health Knowledge Survey (DHKS). These surveys are unique in that, together, they provide the only federally collected data set capable of relating knowledge and attitudes concerning diet and health to actual dietary intake. Methods Data and Sample The CSFII was designed to obtain a nationally representative sample of households in the 48 conterminous United States and consists of an allincome and a low-income sample. For the all-income sample, all households, including low-income households, were eligible to be interviewed. For the low-income sample, participation was limited to individuals in households with gross income for the previous month at or below 130 percent of the Federal poverty thresholds (29). For the 1990-91 CSFII, trained interviewers visited each household and obtained socioeconomic and demographic data on households and their members. Health-related information, such as heights and weights of household members, was also collected. Heights and weights were self-reported; self-reported weights may be slightly underestimated, especially among overweight individuals (22). In addition, the interviewers obtained 1 day of dietary intake data, using the 24-hour recall method, and household members were asked to complete a record of foods consumed on the 2 days following the 24-bour recall. Thus, up to 3 consecutive days of food consumption information was obtained from household members. For the DHKS, one member of each CSFII household was contacted about 6 weeks after dietary data were collected. Ideally, the individual contacted was the person who had identified himself or herself as the household's main meal planner/preparer. In some cases, interviewers were unable to contact the main meal planner/preparer, and about 6 percent of DHKS respondents were not the main meal planner/preparer. Most interviews were conducted by telephone; in-person interviews were conducted when this was not feasible. DHKS respondents were asked a series of questions on their knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to diet and health. One series of questions assessed knowledge of food group recommendations. DHKS respondents were asked to state how many servings of (1) fruit; (2) vegetables; (3) dairy products; (4) grain products; and (5) meat, poultry, or fish Family Economics and Nutrition Review a person should eat daily (fig. 2).1 Interviewers provided information on sample serving amounts. For this analysis, answers were coded as "correct," "above correct answer," or "below correct answer," based on USDA Food Guide recommendations. Any answer within the recommended range was acceptable. For example, for the fruit group, 2 to 4 servings are recommended; therefore responses of "2", "3", and "4" were all considered correct. In 1990 and 1991, DHKS and 3-day food intake data were obtained from 2,960 respondents. From these, female meal planners 18 years of age and over were selected as the sample for this analysis. The male DHKS respondents were excluded because of the considerable difference in male and female energy intakes. The small number of female DHKS respondents who were not meal planners were excluded because nonmeal planners might have less control over their food choices than meal planners. Pregnant and lactating women were excluded because their physiological state might be expected to create short-term changes in dietary requirements and food consumption. Women who consumed food products not typical of a mixed diet of a healthy adult, for example, medical nutritional products and baby foods, also were excluded. The final analysis data set consisted of 2,17 4 women. To adjust for oversampling of lowincome households and for differing response rates among population subgroups, DHKS sample weights were developed by USDA in cooperation with Iowa State University (29). Use 1 Although the question does not specify all foods that are included in the meat, poultry, fish, dry beans, eggs, and nuts group, the analysis examines consumption of all foods in this group. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Figure 2. Survey question assessing knowledge of food group recommendations Let's begin by talking about your opinion of the amount of food, such as fruits, vegetables and meats that people should eat each day for good health. How many servings of (READ ITEM) should a person eat each day if one serving equals (READ AMOUNT)? NUMBER OF ITEM AMOUNT SERVINGS a. Fruit One piece of whole fruit? b. Vegetables A half cup of cooked vegetables? c. Dairy products One cup of milk or a slice of cheese? d. Grain products One slice of bread or a half cup of cooked cereal, rice, or pasta? e. Meat, poultry A piece the size of a medium or fish hamburger? of these weights for descriptive statistics is recommended, so that the weighted sample will resemble more closely the actual U.S. population ( 15); weighted data were used in this study to calculate all descriptive statistics. Food Group Consumption Measures item or equivalent; and for milk products, 1 cup of milk or equivalent. For meat, poultry, fish, dry beans, eggs, and nuts, serving units were calculated in terms of 1 ounce of lean meat or equivalent.2 In the case of mixed foods (for example, a cheese and tomato sandwich), the food was disaggregated and the contribution of each food ingredient to a major food group was estimated. That is, the contribution of a serving of a cheese and tomato sandwich to the 20ne ounce or equivalent was elected as the unit of measurement for the meat and beans group because the USDA advises consumers The CSFII reports food intakes in grams. Intakes were converted to serving amounts as defined by the USDA Food Guide using a data base previously developed (14) . The servings designated for the USDA Food Guide were used to determine the number of servings or part of a serving represented in 100 grams of each food reported as eaten in the 1989-1991 CSFII. For grains, a serving size was one slice of bread or equivalent; for vegetables and fruit, 112 cup of a chopped, cooked, or canned to monitor daily intake of this group by estimating consumption of each food in the group in terms of equivalence to 1 ounce of cooked lean meat (for example, 1/2 cup of cooked dry beans is considered equivalent to I ounce of cooked lean meat). The number of ounces or equivalent consumed in a day should be totaled and compared to the recommendation of 5-7 ounces of cooked lean meat or equivalent per day (32). 5 grain, vegetable, and milk groups would be estimated. All contributions to the five major food groups were counted, including contributions from condiments and incidental ingredients (for example, the rai ins in raisin bread would be counted toward fruit intake, even though the food is primarily a grain). Thus, "number of servings consumed" as defined in this paper, refers to the total amount of a given food group consumed, expressed in terms of USDA Food Guide serving sizes. Analysis of Association of Knowledge of .Food Group Recommendations with Food Group Consumption Mean food group intakes and total energy intakes by meal planners who reported the correct number of food group servings were compared to food group and energy intakes of other meal planners. For this analysis, weighted data were used and statistical tests were conducted using the SUDAAN software package, which accounts for the effects of the complex design of the CSFIIDHKS surveys (23). T-tests were used for comparing means of two groups, and multiple contrasts were used for simultaneously comparing means of three groups. Besides knowledge of serving recommendations, many factors can affect food intake. Therefore, multivariate analysis techniques were used to examine the independent association of knowledge of serving recommendations with consumption of foods from the fruit, vegetables, meat and beans, and milk groups. (Because about 99 percent of respondents gave incorrect responses to the question on recommended servings of grain products, analysis of the effects of correct information was not undertaken for this group.) 6 For the other four groups, we examined to what extent food group serving consumption was explained by knowledge of serving recommendations while controlling for the effects of other factors that previous research indicated may influence food intake. The following factors were included in each model as control variables: Age, race, the height and body mass index3 of the individual, household income4 as a percent of the Federal poverty level, education, whether the individual was on a weight-loss diet, region of residence, urbanization, season in which dietary intake was reported, whether weekend intake was included in the 3-day dietary data, whether there were any days of reported intake in which the meal planner reported her food consumption to be unusually low, and whether there were any days of reported intake in which the meal planner reported her food consumption to be unusually high. Age, race, household income, and education were included because previous research indicated that they are associated with differences in consumption of particular food groups, such as fruits, vegetables, and milk and milk products (3,4,9,10). Region of residence was included because it may influence availability and price of some food items, as well as local food preferences. 3Body mass index was calculated as the ratio of self-reported weight in kilograms to the square of elf-reported height in meters. These values were calculated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service and are available on the data tape (29 ). 4Household income before taxes; includes household income from wages or salary, Social Security or Supplemental Security, pension or retirement, unemployment or workmen's compensation, alimony, child support, public assistance not including food tamps or WIC benefits, and any other sources of income (29). Urbanization may be associated with availability; for example, central city areas may have fewer and smaller supermarkets, with less food selection (33). Season in which dietary intake was reported may influence price and availability, particularly for fruits and vegetables. Inclusion of a variable assessing weekend food intake should control for day-to-day variation associated with weekend versus weekday eating patterns. Finally, differences in total energy intake can have an important influence on food group intake. Unfortunately, the use of energy intake as an independent variable in a multivariate equation is problematic because withinindividual variability in energy intake introduce error that will produce biased coefficients (use of an intake variable such as food group consumption as a dependent variable does not create bias because within-individual variability is subsumed into the error term) (5). Therefore, several variables that proxy differences in energy need were used as control variables. These include self-reported height and body mass index, as calculated from selfreported height and weight, since larger individuals are likely to consume more energy; being on a weight-loss diet; and whether individuals reported any days with either lower-than-usual or higherthan- usual dietary intakes. In addition, age influences energy needs and controls for energy differences to some extent. For the vegetable, milk, and meat and beans groups, ordinary least squares regression was used. For the vegetable and the meat and bean group , knowledge of correct serving recommendations was entered into the equation a Family Economics and Nutrition Review a dichotomous variable with correct answers compared with incorrect answers below the recommendation. Because so few meal planners gave responses that were above the correct USDA Food Guide recommendation for either of these two groups, these individuals were excluded from the analysis. For the milk group, correct answers and answers above the correct recommendation were compared with answers below the correct recommendation. In accordance with guidelines for the use of USDA food consumption survey data (15 ), unweighted data were used for these multivariate analyses, and ordinary least squares regression analyses were conducted using the SPSS-X statistical software package (26). For the fruit gtoup, ordinary ieast squares regression analysis was not appropriate because of the large number of individuals (n=354 or 16 percent of the sample) who did not consume any fruit at all over the 3-day period. In statistical terms, this means that the dependent variable (servings of fruit consumed) cannot be considered a continuous variable throughout its range, but is instead limited at the zero point, and techniques appropriate for limited dependent variable analysis must be used (16). One technique that has been proposed as particularly suitable for analysis of food group consumption is the two-step analysis developed by Cragg (8,13). The first step of this analysis (probit) identifies factors associated with the decision to consume fruit; the second step (truncated regression) identifies factors associated with quantity of fruit consumed, conditional on fruit being consumed. As with the vegetable group and the meat and beans group, the small number of meal planners who gave answers above the correct response were dropped from the analysis. Thus, the analysis compared those who gave "too low" responses and those who gave correct responses. The two-step analysis was conducted using the LIMDEP statistical package ( 11 ). Unweighted data were used in the analysis. Interpreting Regression Coefficients For the ordinary least squares regression analyses used to exanline consumption of the vegetable, meat and beans, and milk groups, estimated coefficients can be interpreted in terms of their independent effects on consumption. For example, if the estimated coefficient associated with knowledge of vegetable recommendations is 0.26, that can be interpreted as meaning that given knowledge of serving recommendations, an individual would consume 0.26 servings more of vegetables than an individual with equivalent personal characteristics who believed that a smaller-than-recommended number of vegetable servings should be consumed. The estimated coefficients produced by the two-step analysis used to examine fruit consumption cannot be interpreted in this manner. For this analysis, the reader should interpret a significant coefficient as indicating that a relationship exists between a given independent variable and fruit consumption, but the estimated coefficient cannot be directly used to detetmine the magnitude of that relationship. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Very few of the meal planners-only 1 percent-reported the correct number of servings from the grain group, while 99 percent gave responses that were below the recommended 6 to 11 servings. 7 Results Description of Study Population The average age of the meal planners was 49 (table 1). Average before-tax household income was $35,218. Because meal planners came from households of varying size, income was also assessed as a percentage of the Federal poverty level, which accounts for household size. Average household income as a percentage of the Federal poverty level was 361 percent. Eighty-four percent of meal planners were white. Most meal planners had at least a high school education. Twenty percent had not completed high school, whereas 37 percent were high school graduates, and 43 percent had at least some college education. Five percent were on a weightloss diet. All regions of the country were represented in the study population, with 22 percent of meal planners corning from the Northeast, 24 percent from the Midwest, 35 percent from the South, and 19 percent from the West. A range of urbanization levels was also represented, with 30 percent of the study population from the central city, 4 7 percent from a suburban area, and 23 percent from a nonmetropolitan area. To control for seasonal and day-of-week variation in intake, dietary data were collected from survey participants at all seasons of the year and on all days of the week. Approximately one-quarter of meal planners provided dietary data during each of the four seasons. For 57 percent of meal planners, the 3 days of dietary intake data included at least 1 weekend day; for the remainder, weekend dietary intake was not assessed. Dietary intake data can also be affected by fluctuations in day-to-day intake. 8 Table 1. Description of sample1 Variable Age (years) Before-tax annual household income Annual household income as percent of Federal poverty level Body mass index (BMI) Height (inches) Race White Non-White Education Less than high school High school At least some college On weight loss diet Yes No Region of residence Northeast Midwest South West Urbanization Central city Suburban Nonmetropolitan Season intake reported Spring Summer Fall Winter Weekend day included in 3-day dietary data Yes No At least 1 day of lower than usual intake Yes No At least 1 day of higher than usual intake Yes No 1 n=2, 174, weighted data. 2Valid percent for each variable. Mean Range 49 18-97 $35,218 $500 - $250,000 361 6- 3007 25 14-63 64 48 -73 Frequency (Percent) 84 16 20 37 43 5 95 22 24 35 19 30 47 23 25 25 24 26 57 43 28 72 13 87 Family Economics and Nutrition Review Twenty-eight percent of meal planners stated that on at least 1 of the 3 days of dietary intake reported, they consumed less than they usually ate. Thirteen percent indicated that on at least 1 of the 3 days of dietary intake reported, they consumed more than they usually ate. Finally, amounts consumed can be affected by an individual's size. The meal planners averaged 64 inches (1.6 m) in height and a body mass index of 25. Knowledge of Food Group Servings Recommendations The meal planners' knowledge of food group servings recommendations varied considerably by food group (table 2). Very few of the meal planners-only 1 percent-reported the correct number of servings from the grain group, while 99 percent gave responses that were below the recommended 6 to 11 servings. The majority-73 percent-provided correct responses for fruits, and 34 percent provided correct responses for vegetables. For the meat and beans group, 52 percent of meal planners provided correct responses. Almost all of the incorrect responses for the fruit, vegetable, and meat and beans groups were below the correct recommendation. For these three food groups, only 1 to 2 percent of meal planners named amounts that were above recommendations. For the milk group, however, 12 percent of meal planners reported serving recommendations that were above the 2 to 3 servings recommended by the USDA Food Guide. Sixty percent of meal planners reported the correct recommendation, and 28 percent reported amounts that fell below recommendations. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Table 2. Knowledge of food group servings recommendations of adult meal planners, CSFIIIDHKS 1990-91, 3-day data set1•2 Answer correct Answer below according to Answer above correct USDA correct Food group recommendation food guide recommendation Bread, cereal, rice, and pasta group 99 Fruit group 26 Vegetable group 64 Milk, cheese, and yogurt group 28 Meat, poultry, fish, dried beans, eggs, 46 and nuts group 1n=2,174, weighted data. 2Valid percent for each food group. Based on their 3-day diet records, meal planners generally consumed smaller amounts of the five major food groups than are recommended by the USDA Food Guide. Food consumption data based on self-reports may be underreported (17). Examination of total reported caloric intakes revealed mean intakes of 1,479 kilocalories for the meal planners, which is below the average energy allowance for adult women with light-to-moderate activity levels, as established by the National Academy of Sciences (20). It is possible, therefore, that these results may underestimate food group consumption. Percent 1 0 73 <1 34 2 60 12 52 2 Food Group Intakes and Energy Intakes of Meal Planners Table 3, p. 10, presents mean food group intakes and energy intakes of meal planners by knowledge of food group servings recommendations. Meal planners who reported the correct number of recommended servings of vegetables consumed significantly more servings of vegetables per day-2.9 servings, on average, compared with 2.5 servings consumed by those who gave answers below the correct recommendation. An average of 1.4 servings of fruit per day was consumed by those who reported the correct number of recommended servings of fruit, significantly more than the 1.0 servings averaged by those who gave answers below the correct recommendation. 9 Table 3. Mean food group intakes and total caloric intakes by female meal planners, CSFIIIDHKS 1990-91, 3-day data set1 Reported number of recommended food group servings Below correct recommendation (Total caloric intake) Correct (Total caloric intake) Above correct recommendation (Total caloric intake) 1n=2,174, weighted data. 2Does not include legumes. Grain group 4.9 (1479) -Indicates too few respondents for reliable estimates. Mean number of servings consumed per day Meat, poultry, fish, Vegetable Fruit Milk dried beans, eggs, and group2 group group nuts group 2.5L l.OL l.lL,H 4.4 oz. or equivalent (1456) (1446) (1414) (1462) 2.9 1.4 1.4H 4.5 oz. or equivalent (1506) (1491) (1467) (1490) 1.8 (1699)E L=Food group intake significantly lower than that of women with correct answers. H=Food group intake significantly lower than that of women who gave answers above correct recommendation. E=Energy significantly higher than that of women who gave correct answers and answers below correct recommendation. For the meat and beans group, those who provided a correct response to the question on number of servings consumed an average of 4.5 ounces of cooked lean meat, poultry, fish or the equivalent, compared with 4.4 ounces consumed by meal planners who gave answers below the correct recommendation; this difference was not significant. Meal planners who provided correct answers to the questions on recommended servings for the vegetable, fruit, and meat and beans groups averaged higher caloric intakes than those who provided answers below the correct recommendation, but the difference was not significant. 10 So few meal planners provided correct responses to the question on recommended servings of grains that average intakes for the "correct answer" group cannot be reliably estimated. The meal planners who provided answers below the correct recommendation, however, averaged 4.9 servings of foods from the grain group. For the milk group, meal planners who reported the correct number of recommended servings consumed 1.4 servings, whereas those who gave answers below the correct recommendation consumed 1.1 servings. The meal planners who gave answers that were higher than the USDA Food Guide recommendation consumed 1.8 servings per day. All three of the groups differed significantly from each other in terms of milk group servings consumed. Meal planners who gave answers below the correct recommendation had caloric intakes that were 53 calories lower, on average, than the intakes of those who gave the correct answer, but this difference was not significant. Meal planners who gave answers that were higher than the USDA Food Guide recommendation had average caloric intakes that were significantly higher than the caloric intakes of meal planners who gave answers that were either correct or below recommendations. Family Economics and Nutrition Review Association of Knowledge of Food Group Recommendations With Food Group Consumption For all four food groups studied, knowledge of food group serving recommendations was found to be positively associated with consumption of the corresponding food group after controlling for the other factors included in the multivariate analyses. Several of these other factors also influenced consumption of particular food groups, although none influenced food group consumption as consistently as did knowledge of serving recommendations. Regression models used to examine consumption of the vegetable, meat and beans, and milk groups explained 8 to 10 percent of variance, similar to results of other analyses using personal characteristics to explain differences in consumption as assessed by national food consumption survey data (18) . For the vegetable group (table 4), knowledge of the correct number of recommended servings was significantly associated with increased consumption of servings of vegetables. In addition, vegetable consumption was positively associated with age, household income, having at least some college education, and living in the Northeast or Western regions as compared with living in the South. It was negatively associated with living in a central city area, as compared with living in a suburban area, and having at least 1 day of lower than usual reported dietary intake. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Table 4. OLS regression coefficients for factors related to number of vegetable servings per day, CSFIIIDHKS 1990-91, 3-day data set1 Independent variable Knowledge of correct number of vegetable servings (base= Answer below correct recommendation) Age Height Body mass index White (base= Non-White) Household income as percent of Federal poverty level Education (base = No high school) High school At least some college On weight loss diet (base = Not on weight loss diet) Region of residence (base = South) Northeast Midwest West Urbanization (base= Suburban) City Nonmetropolitan Season intake reported (base = Winter) Spring Summer Fall Weekend day included in 3-day report (base= No weekend day) At least 1 day of lower than usual intake At least 1 day of higher than usual intake Constant R2 *p < .05. 12,023 observations included in analysis. Estimated coefficients 0.26* 0.008* 0.01 0.002 -0.007 0.0008* 0.06 0.25* -0.08 0.56* 0.13 0.22* -0.21 * 0.08 0.11 -0.04 -0.12 0.06 -0.52* 0.02 0.80 0.10 11 For the fruit group (table 5), two-step analysis revealed that knowledge of the serving recommendation was not associated with the decision to consume fruit but was associated with the amount of fruit consumed. Variables that had a positive significant association with the decision to consume fruit were being older, being taller, having a higher household income, having at least some college education, and living in the Northeast or West compared with the South. Besides knowledge of fruit servings recommendations, other variables that were positively associated with the amount of fruit consumed, conditional on the decision to consume fruit, were being older, having at least a high school education, and living in the Northeast compared with the South. Amount of fruit consumed was negatively associated with having a higher body mass index and having reported dietary intake during a period that included at least I weekend day. Consumption of servings of foods from the meat and beans group was positively associated with knowledge of the serving recommendations for this group (table 6). For this food group, being older, being white rather than non-white, being on a weight-loss diet, and eating less than usual on at least 1 of the 3 days of reported dietary intake were all associated with lower numbers of servings consumed. Having a higher household income, a higher body mass index, a reported dietary intake during a period that included at least 1 weekend day, and living in the Northeast region were factors that were positively associated with intake of this food group. 12 Table 5. Estimated coefficients for factors related to number of fruit group servings per day using two-step analysis, CSFIIIDHKS 1990-91, 3-day data set1 Independent variable Knowledge of correct number of fruit servings (base =Answer below correct recommendation) Age Height Body mass index White (base= Non-White) Household income as percent of Federal poverty level Education (base= No high school) High school At least some college On weight loss diet (base= Not on weight loss diet) Region of residence (base = South) Northeast Midwest West Urbanization (base = Suburban) City N onmetropolitan Season intake reported (base = Winter) Spring Summer Fall Weekend day included in 3-day report (base= No weekend day) At least 1 day of lower than usual intake At least 1 day of higher than usual intake Constant Log-likelihood Chi-square statistic *p < .05. 12,032 cases included in analysis. Estimated coefficients Truncated Pro bit regression 0.11 2.26* 0.02* 0.10* 0.03* -0.005 -0.007 -0.08* 0.02 0.76 0.0005* 0.001 0.14 1.15* 0.43* 2.39* -0.08 1.09 0.25* 1.42* 0.10 0.19 0.30* 0.71 -0.16 0.70 -0.08 0.32 -0.03 -0.09 0.07 0.65 -0.15 -0.74 0.13 -0.93* -0.13 -0.81 0.06 0.44 -2.53* -12.99* -858 -2211 192* Family Economics and Nutrition Review Table 6. OLS regression coefficients for factors related to consumption of meat, poultry, fish, dried beans, eggs, and nuts1 per day, CSFIIIDHKS 1990-91, 3-day data set2 Independent variable Reported number of recommended meat, poultry, fish servings (base = Answer below correct recommendation) Age Height Body mass index White (base = Non-White) Household income as percent of Federal poverty level Education (base= No high school) High school At least some college On weight loss diet (base= Not on weight loss diet) Region of residence (base = South) Northeast Midwest West Urbanization (base= Suburban) City Nonmetropolitan Season intake reported (base = Winter) Spring Summer Fall Weekend day included in 3-day report (base= No weekend day) At least 1 day of lower than usual intake At least 1 day of higher than usual intake Constant R2 *p <.OS. 1 Expressed as ounces of cooked lean meat or equivalent. 22,0 18 observations included in analysis. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Estimated coefficients 0.32* -0.01* 0.01 0.02* -0.70* 0.001 * -0.05 -0.16 -0.76* 0.29* 0.0003 -0.21 0.17 0.16 0.22 0.11 -0.14 0.19* -0.70* 0.26 3.80* 0.09 For the milk group (table 7, p. 14), the relationship of knowledge to intake is somewhat more complex. Both knowledge of correct serving recommendations and belief that even higher numbers of servings from the milk group should be consumed were associated with consumption of significantly more servings from the milk group, compared with belief that fewer than two servings are recommended. However, the values of the estimated coefficients differ. For the correct answer, the value of the estimated coefficient is 0.31, indicating that given knowledge of the correct recommendations, the female meal planner will consume 0.31 more servings from the milk group than if he believed the recommendation to be lower, all other factors being equal. For the answer above the correct recommendation, the estimated coefficient is 0.49, indicating that this belief is likely to lead to an increase in milk group consumption of 0.49 servings. Thus, belief that even more servings from the milk group should be consumed than are recommended by the USDA Food Guide leads to an even greater increase in milk group consumption than knowledge of the correct recommendations. Several other factors also influenced milk group consumption. Being white rather than non-white was positively associated with consumption of this food group, as was having at least orne college education, living in the Midwest region as compared with the South, and being taller. Having a higher body mass index, reporting food intake during the summer or fall months as compared with winter, and reporting at least 1 day of lower than usual intake were negatively associated with number of servings of milk and milk products consumed. 13 Table 7. OLS regression coefficients for factors related to number of milk servings per day, CSFII/DHKS 1990-91, 3-day data set1 Independent variable Reported number of recommended milk group servings (base = Answer below correct recommendation) Correct answer Answer above correct recommendation Age Height Body mass index White (base= Non-White) Household income as percent of Federal poverty level Education (base= No high school) High school At least some college On weight loss diet (base = Not on weight loss diet) Region of residence (base = South) Northeast Midwest West Urbanization (base= Suburban) City Nonmetropolitan Season intake reported (base = Winter) Spring Summer Fall Weekend day included in 3-day report (base= No weekend day) At least 1 day of lower than usual intake At least 1 day of higher than usual intake Constant R2 *p < .05. 12,051 observations included in analysis. 14 Estimated coefficients 0.31 * 0.49* -0.0004 0.03* -0.009* 0.34* -0.00003 0.08 0.17* -0.02 0.12 0.12* 0.01 0.03 -0.07 -0.08 -0.19* -0.14* -0.04 -0.15* 0.11 -0.59 0.08 Conclusions For all four major food groups analyzed, it was found that knowledge of USDA Food Guide servings recommendations was independently associated with food group consumption after controlling for a number of characteristics. For the fruit group, knowledge of serving recommendations was not associated with the decision to consume fruit but was associated with amount consumed. It may be that over a 3-day period individuals consume at least small amounts of fruit for a variety of reasons, for example as a small part of another food. Consumption of larger amounts, however, seems to be more likely when individuals know serving recommendations. For the vegetable, fruit, and meat and bean groups, knowledge of correct recommendations was compared only with incorrect answers that were lower than the correct recommendation, since fewer than 3 percent of meal planners gave answers that were above recommendations for these food groups. Only for the milk group was there an appreciable number of meal planners who believed that even more servings than are recommended in the USDA Food Guide should be consumed. Believing one should consume higherthan- recommended amounts of a given food group may encourage its intake, but it may also increase caloric intake or displace other food groups from the diet. The meal planners who believed they should consume higher-thanrecommended amounts from the milk group did consume more milk and milk products than either those with correct or "too low" answers. They also consumed significantly more calories and did not consume smaller-than-average Family Economics and Nutrition Review amounts of other food groups (data not shown). Their total caloric intake was 232 to 285 calories higher than that of women in other groups, much more than would typically be provided by 0.4 servings from the milk group. It appears that their increased consumption of milk and milk products was associated with a pattern of higher-than-average overall caloric intake rather than with displaced consumption of other foods. The only one of the five major food groups for which an association between knowledge of USDA Food Guide recommendations and food group consumption could not be established was the grain group. Too few meal planners knew the recommended number of grain servings for it to be possible to analyze the effects of correct information on consumption of these foods. These data were collected before the publication of the Food Guide Pyramid graphic, which has given more publicity to USDA Food Guide recommendations. It may be that consumers are now more aware of recommendations for consumption of grains. Data on knowledge of food group serving recommendations and food consumption are currently being collected as a part of USDA's 1994-96 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals/Diet and Health Knowledge Survey. Comparison of the results obtained after release of the Food Guide Pyramid with the results obtained by this study will provide some information on the effectiveness of the Food Guide Pyramid in transmitting knowledge of recommended grain intake. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 A major concern when examining the relationship of knowledge of recommendations to food group intake is the possible effect of confounding variables. One major variable of interest is energy intake. Individuals differ in energy intake, due to differences in size, activity level, etc. Individuals who consume more total energy (kilocalories) might be expected to consume larger amounts of food groups, regardless of knowledge. Therefore, several variables reflecting differences in energy intake were included in analyses as control variables. The significance of knowledge, after controlling for factors that would influence energy intake, lends more support to the conclusion that differences found are attributable to quality of food choices, not just quantity of food consumed. Underreporting of energy intake might also affect identified relationships. Unfortunately, dietary data based on 3 days of reported intake cannot be used to categorize specific individuals as underreporters, since some reported low intakes may simply reflect day-to-day variation in intake. Overweight has been identified as being associated with underreporting (24). Body mass index was included in the analysis and was found to be significantly associated with decreased consumption of foods from the fruit group and the milk group and increased consumption of foods from the meat and beans group. These relationships may be associated with underreporting or with distinctive patterns of food consumption related to having a higher body mass index. Since it would be surprising for higherweight individuals to underreport fruit and milk products but not foods from the meat and beans group, the latter explanation may be more probable. Although many other factors were found to have significant impacts on individual food groups, knowledge of food group recommendations had the most consistent, significant, positive association with food group consumption of any of the factors included in the multivariate analyses. This supports the general usefulness of a food-groupbased approach to nutrition education as a means of encouraging an overall healthful diet. At the same time, nutrition educators may want to consider the role other variables, such as household income, education, and place of residence, may play in consumption of particular food groups. For example, results of these analyses indicate that, when factors such as race and household income are controlled, living in a central city area is associated with decreased consumption of vegetables. Nutrition educators working with urban populations may wish to consider this finding and investigate any particular problems, such as access to stores stocking a variety of vegetables, that may need to be considered in developing a nutrition promotion program that would be effective in an urban population. Despite the positive effects of knowledge, meal planners who knew USDA Food Guide serving recommendations did not, on average, consume the minimum number of servings in the recommended range. Although this result could reflect underreporting, it may also indicate further educational and motivational needs of consumers. Lack of knowledge of recommended serving sizes for each food group has been cited as a source of consumer confusion ( 1 ). Educational efforts that provide this information may assist consumers. 15 Other types of education that build on the basic message of the Food Guide may also increase its effectiveness ( 1 ). These results provide some support for the importance of nutrition education efforts to teach food group servings recommendations to consumers. It may be that this simple information by itself can encourage consumption of major food groups. However, it is generally agreed that many other factors, such as attitudes toward food and health and lifestyle factors, also play important roles in influencing food-related behavior ( 12). It may be that knowledge of recommended servings, as used in this analysis, is a proxy for other variables, such as more positive attitudes toward following dietary guidance or more detailed nutrition knowledge. Further investigation of the relationship of nutrition knowledge to food group consumption is indicated. 16 References 1. 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American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 52:1125-1133. 23. Shah, B.V., Barnwell, B.G., Hunt, P.N., and LaVange, L.M. 1991. SUDAAN User 's Manual: Professional Software for Survey Data Analysis for Multi-Stage Sample Designs. Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, NC. 24. Schoeller, D.A. 1990. How accurate is self-reported dietary energy intake? Nutrition Reviews 48(10):373-379. 25. Smith, A.M., Baghurst, K., and Owen, N. 1995. Socioeconomic status and personal characteristics as predictors of dietary change. Journal of Nutrition Education 27(4): 173-181. 26. SPSS, Inc. 1988. SPSS-X User 's Guide (3rd ed.). SPSS, Inc., Chicago. 27. Tippett, K.S., Mickle, S.J., Goldman, J.D., Sykes, K.E., Cook, D.A., Sebastian, R.S., Wilson, J.W., and Smith, J. 1995. Food and Nutrient Intakes by Individuals in the United States, I Day, 1989-91. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service. NFS Report No. 91-2. 28. Torisky, D.M., Hertzler, A.A., Johnson, J.M., Keller, J.F., Hodges, P.A.M., and Mifflin, B.S. 1989. Virginia EFNEP homemakers' dietary improvement and relation to selected family factors. Journal of Nutrition Education 21(6):249-258. 29. U.S. Department of Agriculture. 1993. Data tapes and documentation for 1990 and 1991 CSFll/DHKS. National Technical Information Service Accession No. PB93-504843 (1990 tape) and PB94-500063 (1991 tape). Computer tapes. 30. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Human Nutrition Information Service. 1985. Developing the Food Guidance System for "Better Eating for Better Health," A Nutrition Course for Adults. Administrative Report No. 377. 31. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Human Nutrition Information Service. 1992. The Food Guide Pyramid. Home and Garden Bulletin No. 252. 32. U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. 1980. Nutrition and Your Health: Dietary Guidelines for Americans. Home and Garden Bulletin No. 232. 33. Weinberg, Z. 1995. No Place to Shop: The Lack of Supermarkets in Low-Income Neighborhoods. Public Voice for Food and Health Policy, Washington, DC. 34. Welsh, S., Davis, C., and Shaw, A. 1992. A brief history of food guides in the United States. Nutrition Today, November/December, pp. 6-11. 35. Welsh, S., Davis, C., and Shaw, A. 1992. Development of the Food Guide Pyramid. Nutrition Today, November/December, pp. 12-23. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 17 18 Health Status Transitions of the Elderly, by Residential Location: 1984 to 1990 By Carolyn C. Rogers Demographer Economic Research Service Transitions in the health status and living arrangements of communityresident elderly persons are examined to determine whether declining health and changes in social support networks are likely to result in changes in living arrangements. The Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA) is used to follow a sample of elderly people 70 years and older over a 6-year interval. Results show that the level of disability at the baseline date (1984) affects health outcomes over time, with fewer of the initially nondisabled entering nursing homes or dying by 1990. The nonmetro elderly experienced a somewhat greater decline in health status over the 6-year interval than did the metro elderly. A smaller proportion of elderly persons initially living with their spouse end up in nursing homes or die 6 years later, compared with those initially living either alone or with others. The longitudinal data show that the risk of institutionalization is roughly the same for metro and nonmetro elderly. Elderly people adjust their living arrangements in response to changes in their health and social support networks. [!] he growing number of older people in the United States, their greater risk of disability, and their higher use of health care services have increased the need for a more complete understanding of the nature of changes in health status later in life. This study uses the Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA) to follow a sample of elderly people 70 years and older living in the community in 1984 over a 6-year interval. Changes in health and disability are examined in relation to transitions in living arrangements and by metropolitan-nonmetropolitan (metro-nonmetro) residence. Understanding the relationship between changes in health status, living arrangements, and residential location is essential to the allocation of health care and community resources and the future planning of appropriate health care services in local communities. This study examines individual transitions both into and out of functionally impaired states. In order to have a better basis on which to plan interventions in functional loss in the elderly population, nationally representative estimates are needed of functional status transition rates specific by age, prior functional status, and residence. Longitudinal data make it possible to examine the 6-year incidence of functional limitations, the rates of improvement or loss of function FamiJy Economics and Nutrition Review for currently disabled persons, and the risks of institutionalization and mortality on the community-resident elderly population. Previous Research Several studies have examined changes over time in the functional status of the elderly and the risk of institutionalization and death using the LSOA and other surveys (2,4,6,10,13). Manton found that the majority of elderly persons who were not initially disabled (about 82 percent) remained nondisabled over a 2-year period, and there was a significant probability of long-term improvement in functional status even at very high levels of impairment. Examining individual transitions both into and out of functionally impaired states, the level of disability was found to strongly predict differentials in mortality and risk of institutionalization; the higher the level of disability, the greater the risk of becoming institutionalized or dying. Crimmins and Saito (4) found that the vast majority of older persons initially free of functioning difficulties remained that way over a 2-year period. Looking at both older people with difficulties in the initial period and tho e without difficulties, they found that less than 10 percent of those without functioning deficiencies at the first interview develop a deficiency. Older persons with a greater number of functioning difficulties at the baseline are less likely to improve in the interval. A much lower likelihood of improvement occurs in activities of daily living (ADL's) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL's) with an onset duration greater than 1 year. Crimmins and Saito (4) 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 conclude that a return to functioning is most likely to occur where overall functional status is higher, loss is recent, and impairment is not severe, and that decline in each individual function is more likely to occur when general health and functioning levels are lower. Health status was the best predictor of the living arrangements of older people 2 years later; elderly persons who had no difficulty performing personal care and home management tasks were more likely to be alive and living in the community 2 years later (6,7). Changes in marital status and household composition, such as death of a spouse, and declining health are typical life cycle events related to the aging process that may encourage elderly persons to change residence (3). Elderly nonmovers are more likely to live with their spouse in independent households, compared with movers who are more likely to be widowed and to move in with their children or other relatives (1). Speare, Avery, and Lawton (13) found that both the initial level of functional ability and amount of change in functioning (disability) from 1984 to 1986 predicted changes in living arrangements and residential mobility for many elderly people. Because most persons kept the same living arrangements between surveys, living arrangements in 1984 were a strong predictor of living arrangements in 1986. Disability (difficulties in ADL's and IADL's) predicted a change to more dependent living arrangements; level of disability had a significant and positive effect on living with others. Changes in functional limitations were even more strongly related to changes in living arrangements than the initial levels of these measures. Health status and level of disability in 1984 were major predictors of both , entering an institution in the 2-year interval and death by 1986. Reasons for moving indicated that health and disability were important considerations for many elderly movers. Elderly moving decisions are based on complex and interrelated health and social motives (5). A life course typology by Litwak and Longino (8) consists of three stages of elderly migration: (1) amenity-related mobility in early retirement, (2) mobility motivated by moderate forms of disability, making it difficult to perform activities of daily living (ADL's), and (3) institutional moves in late old age due to chronic disability. Younger, recently retired migrants may move because their health is good-poorer health would deter them from moving; alternatively, the poorer health of the older elderly may prompt them to move to long-term care institutions (1 1). The elderly who move because of dependency or assistance needs have higher use of chronic health care facilities, rely more on family and friend support networks, and have lower overall levels of well-being. These previous studies show that changes in health and functional status of the elderly over time include both improvement and deterioration. Elderly people adjust their living arrangements or relocate in response to changes in health and family support networks. Changes in health and disability measures should help predict risks of institutionalization and mortality. Differences by metrononmetro residence will impact on planning interventions in functional loss and appropriate health care services in local areas. 19 Purpose and Objectives The purpose of this research is to examine changes in functional status of the elderly over time, to assess the relationship between health and adjustments in living arrangements, and to determine the impact of residence on these changes. The expected path of transitions is from living independently to dependency and then to institutional care. The basic tenet of this research was that changes in health and/or social support would result in changes in living arrangements or residential mobility, especially toward places with better access to health and social services. One would expect elderly persons initially free of disability to have better health outcomes over time and lower risks of entering nursing homes or dying. One would also expect both those in declining health and the recently widowed to experience adverse changes in living arrangements and greater risks of institutional care or death. This article focuses on transitions over the 1984 to 1990 interval. The following questions were addressed: (1) What changes can be expected in the health of a cohort of people 70 years and older over an interval of 6 years and how are transitions in health affected by initial health status? Do these patterns differ by metro-nonmetro residential location? and (2) What transitions can be expected in the living arrangements of a cohort of people 70 years and older over an interval of 6 years and what effect do changes in health status and marital status (widowhood) have on these living arrangements? Do these patterns differ by metro-nonmetro residential location? 20 Data and Methods The LSOA is designed to measure changes in functional ability and in living arrangements (including movement into and out of nursing homes) of a cohort of older people. The LSOA describes the continuum from functionally independent living in the community through dependence, possible institutionalization, and finally to death. The 1990 data file provides baseline and 6 years of follow-up information 1 on 7,527 noninstitutionalized persons 70 years or older when they participated in the 1984 Supplement on Aging to the National Health Interview Survey. By 1990, 55 percent of the initial sample completed the interview, 15 percent were not interviewed for various reasons, and 30 percent had died. 1Those interviewed in 1984 were reinterviewed in 1986, 1988, and 1990. Defmitions Data include demographic and health characteristics, including disability measured by activities of daily living (ADL's) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL's); changes in those characteristics and reasons for change; and doctor, hospital, and nursing home use. The LSOA also contains information about elderly persons who (1) remained outside of institutions (with unchanged living arrangements, or living alone, or having moved to another residence, or living with someone else in their residence); (2) became institutionalized; and (3) died. Data on physical limitations provide information on persons who remained the same or changed in disability, difficulties with physical movement (such as walking, climbing stairs, and lifting), and the provision of help with ADL's or IADL's. Two measures are used to assess the degree of disability. Activities of daily living, or ADL's, are the basic tasks of everyday life, including bathing or showering, dressing, eating, transferring (getting in or out of a chair or bed), walking, getting outside, and using/getting to a toilet. When people are unable to perform these activities, they need help in order to cope, either from other persons or via mechanical aids or devices. With advancing age, a higher proportion of persons have difficulty performing personal care or home management activities. ADL's, especially measures of mobility, such as walking and getting outside, are key indicators of one's ability to live independently in the community and are also significant predictors of admission to nursing homes, use of paid home care, and use of both hospital and physician services. ADL's do not measure the full range of activities necessary for independent living in the community, and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL' s) were developed to partially fill this gap. IADL's include meal preparation, shopping for personal items, managing money, using the telephone, doing heavy housework, and doing light housework. IADL disabilities capture those activities that are more complex and less severe than ADL difficulties. Family Economics and Nutrition Review Use of medical care is obtained from nursing home stays since 1984, hospital stays in the year before the interview, and contacts with doctors in the year before the reinterview. This study defines disability in terms of a scale of impairment: (1) the healthiest, who are free of disability, (2) those with one or more IADL disabilities only, and (3) the most impaired-those unable to perform one or more ADL's, which makes independent living difficult. Transitions were examined over a 6-year interval, 1984 to 1990, so that the widest range of change could be observed. Intervals of 2 and 4 years may reveal real transitions as well as more temporary fluctuations. Because the estimates in this article are based on a sample rather than the entire population of those 70 years and older, the estimates are subject to sampling error. Unless otherwise noted, all statements of comparison in the text are statistically significant at the 95-percent level of confidence. Results Changes in Health Status Among all persons 70 years and older living in the community in 1984, 35 percent were not disabled by 1990, 13 percent had one or more IADL's only, 6 percent had one or more ADL's, 25 percent had both ADL and IADL difficulties, 6 percent were in nursing Table 1. Health status transitions of the elderly 70 years and older homes, and 15 percent had died by 1990 (table 1). Among those who were not disabled in 1984 ( 68 percent of all persons 70 years and older living in the community), 48 percent remained free of disability, 38 percent declined in health, 4 percent entered nursing homes, and the remainder had died by 1990. Lower proportions of initially nondisabled persons ended up in nursing homes or had died by 1990 than the elderly who had some level of disability in 1984. Not surprisingly, the health of those with ADL difficulties in 1984 (the most disabled at baseline) deteriorated more than their less disabled counterparts, and higher proportions ended up in nursing homes or died. Some improvement in health can also be seen Health status 1990 Health status Not Both ADL's Nursing Measure of health In 1984 disabled 1 +IADL's1 1 +ADL'~ +IADL's home Deceased Percentage Self-reported health Excellent-very good 40.4 48.2 12.6 5.7 18.8 3.7 11.0 Good 31.4 36.8 13.4 6.5 24.9 6.1 12.4 Fair or poor 28.2 15.7 12.1 6.0 34.9 8.5 22.6 Total 100.0 35.4 12.7 6.0 25.2 5.8 14.7 Functional status Not disabled 67.8 47.6 13.6 5.9 18.4 3.8 10.8 1 + IADL's 10.0 13.5 20.0 4.5 35.2 8.3 18.5 1 +ADL's 21.7 7.5 6.9 7.3 42.4 10.9 24.9 Total 100.0 35.4 12.7 6.0 25.3 5.9 14.7 11 + IADL's: those with one or more IADL difficulties only. Instrumental activities of daily living (IADL's) include meal preparation, shopping for personal items, managing money, u ing the telephone, doing heavy housework, and doing light housework. 21 + ADL's: tho e with one or more ADL difficulties, may also have IADL's. Activities of daily living (ADL's) include bathing or howering, dressing, eating, transferring (getting in or out of a bed or chair), walking, getting outside, and using/getting to a toilet. 1995 Vol. 8 No. 4 21 22 Lower proportions of initially nondisabled persons ended up in nursing homes or had died by 1990 than the elderly who had some level of disability in 1984. over the 6-year interval-about 15 percent of elderly persons with ADL or IADL limitations in 1984 improved in health by 1990. Elderly persons whose self-assessed health was very good to excellent at baseline were more likely to be free of disability by 1990 than were those initially in poorer health. A higher proportion of those initially in fair or poor health had both ADL and IADL limitations by 1990; they were also more likely to have entered nursing homes or died by 1990. The best health outcomes over the 6-year interval occurred to the elderly who rated their health as excellent or very good at the baseline, compared with those who rated their health as fair or poor. Metro-Nonmetro Residence (see box table) As measured by self-assessed health and functional limitations, the elderly in suburban areas are healthier than their counterparts in nonmetro areas and central cities (12). Nonmetro elders have more functional limitations and are also more likely to have certain chronic conditions, such as arthritis, that have a strong effect on their ability to perform various activities of daily living. Rogers (12) found that health status differences by residence persist even when other factors-age, race, social support networks, income, and education-are held constant. Moreover, residential location affects health status indirectly in that nonmetro elders are more likely to have those characteristics associated with poorer health. Nonmetro elders are likely to be less educated and financially worse off than their metro counterparts, and lower socioeconomic status is strongly associated with poor health. Age and gender distribution of the elderly, by metro-nonmetro residence Characteristic Metro Nonmetro Age 70-74 75 -79 80-84 85+ Gender Male Female Percentage 42.2 29.8 16.9 11.1 37.6 62.4 39.5 32.9 17.0 10.6 41.5 58.5 The overall pattern of health transitions was similar by residential location (fig. 1). No metro-nonmetro differences were found in rates of institutional care or death over the 6-year interval. The major difference in health at the baseline (1984) was that nonmetro elders were more likely to have functional disabilities than metro elders; 26 percent of nonmetro elders had ADL difficulties in 1984, compared with 20 percent of metro elders. Among the nondisabled elderly at baseline, a higher proportion of nonmetro elders experienced both ADL and IADL difficulties by 1990; health status declined for 40 percent of nonmetro elders, compared with 37 percent of metro elders. Among the elderly who had one or more ADL difficulties at baseline (the most disabled), a lower proportion of nonmetro elders improved in health, and a slightly higher proportion entered nursing homes or died, compared with metro elders. The poorer initial health and greater decline in Family Economics and Nutrition Review Figure 1. Health status transitions of initially nondisabled elderly, by residence, 1990 Not disabled 1 + IADL's health of the nonmetro elderly may reflect in part the "aging in place" of many nonmetro communities, where the older and more disabled elderly persons remain in the community. Transitions in Living Arrangements Changes in the living arrangements of the elderly, including entering a nursing home, reflect adjustments to changes in their social support networks. In 1984, 48 percent of the elderly age 70 and older were living with their spouse; by 1990, only 31 percent were still living with their spouse. By 1990, 6 percent of the elderly had entered nursing homes, and 15 percent had died. Among those initially living with their spouse, 63 percent remained so by 1990. A higher proportion of those living with others in 1984, compared with their counterparts who initially lived with their spouse, ended up in nursing homes or died by 1990. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 1 + ADL's Both ADL's + IADL's Metro-Nonmetro Residence. The main difference in living arrangements of the elderly by metro-nonmetro residence is that in both 1984 and 1990 nonmetro elders were more likely to be living with their spouse and less likely to be living with others (table 2, p. 24). Similar proportions of metro and nonmetro elderly lived alone. Among those living with their spouse in 1984, nonmetro elders were more likely to remain living with their spouse over the 6-year interval. For those initially living alone, metro elders were more likely than nonmetro elders to remain living alone, but nonmetro elders were more likely to have died by 1990 ( 18 percent) than their metro counterparts (13 percent). Social support is associated with better outcomes over time, with fewer of those initially with their spouse entering nursing homes or dying 6 years later. • Metro B Nonmetro Nursing home Deceased Effect of Health on Transitions in Living Arrangements Initial Health Status. The initial health status of elderly persons is expected to affect subsequent living arrangements. Elderly persons without disabilities in 1984, regardless of initial living arrangement, were more likely to be living with their spouse or alone in 1990 and less likely to have entered nursing homes or to have died than those who had either ADL or IADL limitations at baseline (table 3, p. 25). The elderly who lived with their spouse and were not disabled in 1984 were more likely than other elderly to remain with their spouse (67 percent) and less likely to have entered a nursing home (4 percent) or to have died (13 percent) by 1990. Seven or 8 percent of those not initially living with their spouse had 23 Table 2. Transitions in living arrangements of the elderly 70 years and older, by metro-nonmetro residence Living arrangement Metro-nonmetro residence In 1984 Metro With spouse 46.9 Live alone 36.4 With others 16.7 Total 100.0 Nonmetro With spouse 52.0 Live alone 36.3 With others 11.7 Total 100.0 entered nursing homes by 1990. Fourteen percent of those initially living alone and 19 percent of those living with others had died by 1990. The combination of being disabled and living with others at baseline increases the risk of institutional care and/or death 6 years later. Changes in Health. Since initial health affects transitions in living arrangements, one would expect changes in health to operate in a similar way. Comparisons were made between the elderly whose health deteriorated and those whose health either improved or remained the same over the 6-year interval. By 1990, 46 percent of elders with unchanged health and 35 percent of those in better health were living with their spouse, whereas only 22 percent of those in 24 1990 Living arrangement With spouse Alone Percentage 61.5 15.1 1.1 67.7 1.8 16.1 29.6 34.4 64.5 13.7 1.8 61.8 3.6 20.4 34.6 32.0 declining health lived with their spouse (table 4, p. 26). Higher proportions of elderly persons in unchanged or better health lived alone in 1990, compared with those in poorer health. The elderly whose health deteriorated over the interval were less likely to live with their spouse and more likely to shift to nursing homes or to die. Among the elderly initially living with their spouse, 80 percent of those with unchanged health remained with their spouse over the 6-year interval, as did 70 percent of those in better health; only 49 percent of those in worse health remained with their spouse by 1990. Those whose health improved in the interval were more likely to be living alone in 1990 than either those with unchanged health or worse health. With Nursing others home Deceased 6.1 3.6 13.6 11.3 6.9 13.0 55.0 8.9 18.2 16.2 5.7 14.2 4.5 4.2 13.0 10.3 8.5 17.6 49.3 6.7 20.1 11.8 6.0 15.5 Among the elderly with declining health, those who initially lived with their spouse had better outcomes by 1990 than their counterparts who either lived alone or with others at baseline. Of elderly persons in declining health, a lower proportion who initially lived with their spouse had entered nursing homes by 1990, compared with those who either lived alone or with others at baseline. The social support from living with one's spouse appears to have a beneficial effect on subsequent transitions in living arrangements. Furthermore, the most pronounced change in living arrangements of the elderly is the increased institutionalization and death for elderly persons in declining health. Family Economics and Nutrition Review Table 3. Transitions in living arrangements of the elderly, by initial health status and living arrangements 1984 Living arrangement 1990 Living arrangement Health status With With Nursing Health status in 1984 spouse Alone others home Deceased Percentage Lived with spouse in 1984 Not disabled 74.7 66.6 15.0 5.4 2.4 10.5 1 + IADL's1 7.5 56.5 12.1 4.9 7.0 19.5 1 + ADL's2 17.9 48.3 14.8 6.8 7.4 22.8 Total 100.0 62.6 14.8 5.6 3.7 13.3 Lived alone in 1984 Not disabled 65.7 1.6 71.7 10.5 5.7 10.4 1 + IADL's 11.1 1.5 61.9 12.0 7.0 17.6 1 + ADL's 23.2 0.5 52.0 12.1 12.4 23.1 Total 100.0 1.3 66.0 11.1 7.4 14.2 Lived with others in 1984 Not disabled 52.5 3.1 20.2 60.2 4.0 12.5 1 + IADL's 15.6 0.8 17.0 52.3 12.0 17.9 1 + ADL's 31.9 1.4 11.6 43.8 13.9 29.3 Total 100.0 2.2 17.0 53.7 8.4 18.7 11 + IADL's: those with one or more IADL difficulties only. Instrumental activities of daily living (IADL's) include meal preparation, shopping for personal items, managing money, using the telephone, doing heavy housework, and doing light housework. 21 + ADL's: those with one or more ADL difficulties, may also have IADL's. Activities of daily living (ADL's) include bathing or showering, dressing, eating, transferring (getting in or out of a bed or chair), walking, getting outside, and using/getting to a toilet. Metro-Nonmetro Residence. The effect of changes in the health of elderly persons on transitions in living arrangements is similar by metro-nonmetro residence. For elders whose health either improved or remained unchanged over the interval, the main residential difference is that by 1990, nonmetro elders were more likely to live with their spouse and less likely to live alone or with others than metro elders (fig. 2, p. 27). 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Even nonmetro elders in deteriorating health were more likely to live with their spouse (25 percent) than metro elders (20 percent). Otherwise, the effect of declining health is the same by residential location, with 10 percent entering nursing homes and 25 percent dying. Marital Change Changes in marital status, especially widowhood, are good indicators of the shifting social support networks of elderly people. As previously seen, strong social support tends to have a beneficial effect on health. Also, married elderly persons living with their spouses are more likely to rate their health as very good to excellent 25 Table 4. Transitions in living arrangements of the elderly, by change in health status Health status 1984 Living change arrangement Better health With spouse 49.5 Live alone 36.6 With others 13.9 Total 100.0 No change in health With spouse 56.1 Live alone 32.3 With others 11.6 Total 100.0 Worse health With spouse 44.1 Live alone 38.2 With others 17.7 Total 100.0 -Indicates no elderly were in this living arrangement. and less likely to have difficulty performing the various activities of daily living than widowed, divorced, or separated persons. A higher proportion of elders with no change in marital status remained free of disability by 1990 (42 percent), compared with those who became widowed (38 percent) in the interval. Among the nondisabled elderly at baseline, fewer widows remained free of disability by 1990 26 1990 Living arrangement With spouse Alone Percentage 69.6 26.8 85.7 4.3 22.7 35.1 47.8 79.5 15.8 3.0 87.7 5.7 26.2 46.2 40.2 48.6 12.7 0.7 52.7 0.8 12.4 21.8 27.9 (48 percent) than those without a change in marital status (54 percent). At advanced ages, nearly all changes in marital status result from the death of one's spouse, which clearly affects the living arrangements of elderly persons. Widowhood involves a shift from living with one's spouse to living alone or with others (fig. 3). It also signals a shift to living in nursing homes. With Nursing others home Deceased 3.6 14.3 73 .0 17.1 4.7 9.3 68.2 13.6 6.7 6.9 25.1 11.5 12.1 23.1 46.8 12.5 27.6 15.6 9.9 24.8 Metro-Nonmetro Residence. Among the elderly without a change in marital status, nonmetro elders initially living with their spouse are slightly more likely than metro elders to remain living with their spouse (82 vs. 78 percent) and less likely to live with others (4 vs. 6 percent) (fig. 4, p. 28). Nonmetro widows are somewhat more likely to enter nursing homes than their metro counterparts (10 vs. 6 percent). In general, transitions in living arrangements by changes in marital status are similar by metro-nonmetro residence. Family Economics and Nutrition Review Figure 2. Transitions in living arrangements of the elderly, by residence and change in health status, 1990 In better health Metro Non metro No change in health Metro Non metro In worse health Metro 205°o 285% ~~ 24.6% Non metro • With spouse • Alone • With others Nursing home Deceased Figure 3. Transitions in living arrangements of the elderly initially living with their spouse, by change in marital status, 1990 Widowed by 1990 No change in marital status • With spouse • Alone • With others Nursing home 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Change in Residence Residential mobility among the elderly is lower than among the general population. Whereas 44 percent of all persons age 5 and older moved between 1984 and 1990, only 9 percent of elderly persons age 70 and older moved during this period. This percentage was only slightly higher in metro areas than in nonmetro areas. The most frequently given reasons for moving are associated with poor health, social support networks (remarriage, moving to be closer to family), fmancial considerations, and other/multiple reasons. Among the nonmetro elderly, 28 percent moved because of poor health, 18 percent moved to be closer to social support networks, 15 percent moved for financial reasons, and 18 percent for other or multiple reasons. A similar pattern is found among metro elderly persons . Since poor health is frequently given as a reason for moving, changes in health are expected to influence residential mobility. Among the metro elderly who were initially nondisabled, a lower proportion of movers had moved between counties (20 percent) than had moved locally. In contrast, among nonmetro elders who were initially free of disability, 31 percent of movers had moved between counties. Perhaps the metro elderly in better health moved to nonmetro areas after retirement for amenity-related reasons, whereas the mobility of more disabled nonmetro elders was motivated by the location of health care services in metro areas. Although type of residence at destination was not determined, some nonmetro elders, particularly those at greater distances from metro areas, may have moved to be closer to relatives and/or health care and social services in metro areas . 27 28 The elderly whose health deteriorated over the interval were less likely to live with their spouse and more likely to shift to nursing homes or to die. Figure 4. Transitions in living arrangements of the elderly initially living with their spouse, by residence and change in marital status, 1990 ~----t 3.4% 4.0% Metro Nonmetro Metro Nonmetro Widowed by 1990 No change in marital status • With spouse • Alone • With others D Nursing home Summary and Conclusion This study, based on 6-year rates of functional change, supports the findings of previous research showing that some elderly exhibit long-term functional improvement but more commonly, there is a decline in their functional ability. Both the initial level of functional ability and amount of change in functioning influenced changes in living arrangements and residential mobility. Furthermore, this research documents the link between functional decline and increased risk of institutionalization, death, and other changes in living arrangements and residence. The majority of elderly people living in the community are in good health, and about half of the elderly who were not disabled in 1984 remained so 6 years later. The level of initial disability affected health outcomes over time, with fewer of the initially nondisabled entering nursing homes or dying by 1990. In general, the nonmetro elderly had poorer initial health than their metro counterparts and experienced a somewhat greater decline in health status than their metro counterparts over a 6-year interval. Rates of institutional care and dying were similar by metrononmetro residence. Family Economics and Nutrition Review Elderly people make adjustments in their living arrangements in response to changes in their health and social support networks. Elderly persons initially living with their spouse were less likely to enter nursing homes or die within 6 years, compared with those who initially lived either alone or with others. Nonmetro elderly persons were more likely to be living with their spouse than the metro elderly, and such social support may ameliorate their poorer health to some extent. Having someone in the household, primarily one's spouse, who could offer assistance is beneficial to the health of the elderly and acts as a buffer to institutionalization. Regardless of metro-nonrnetro residence, deteriorating health results in an increased likelihood of entering a nursing home or dying in the interval. The elderly who were initially disabled and also living with others had the greatest risk of institutionalization and death. Advanced age and widowhood were also strong predictors of a person's entering a nursing home or dying. About 9 percent of the elderly moved between 1984 and 1990. Decisions to move are based on complex interrelated health and social motives. The most common reasons for moving are associated with poorer health, moving closer to family, financial considerations, and other/multiple reasons. Some nonmetro elders may move to be closer to relatives and to obtain health care services in metro areas. This may be especially true of the more disabled nonmetro elderly who relocate for both healthcare resource and social support considerations. A substantial and growing number of the elderly have, or are at risk of developing, chronic conditions that impair their ability to function independently. 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 The ability or inability of the elderly to obtain help with difficult personal care activities is an important factor in determining which individuals are able toremain in the community and which must enter nursing homes or other institutions for needed care and assistance. The incidence and duration of disability has References important consequences for long-term care and federal spending as well as for effective local planning for health care and other services. Furthermore, residential moves that are strongly associated with health factors can have potentially large impacts on local public resources, particularly health and social services. 1. Biggar, J.C. 1980. Who moved among the elderly, 1965 to 1970: A comparison of types of older movers. Research on Aging 2(1):73-91. 2. Branch, L.G. and Ku, L. 1989. Transition probabilities to dependency, institutionalization, and death among the elderly over a decade. Journal of Aging and Health 1(3):370-408. 3. Bryant, E.S. and El-Attar, M. 1984. Migration and redistribution of the elderly: A challenge to community services. The Gerontologist 24:634-640. 4. Crimmins, E.M. and Saito, Y. 1990. Getting Better and Getting Worse: Transitions in Functional Status Among Older Americans. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Toronto, Canada. 5. Heaton, T.B ., Clifford, W.B., and Fuguitt, G.V. 1980. Changing patterns of retirement migration: Movement between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. Research on Aging 2(1):93-104. 6. Kovar, M.G. 1987. The Longitudinal Study of Aging: Some Estimates of Change Among Older Americans. Proceedings of the 1987 Public Health Conference on Records and Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics. DHHS Publication No. 88-1214. 7. Kovar, M.G. 1988. Aging in the eighties, people Hving alone-two years later. Advance Data from Vital and Health Statistics No. 149. National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD. 8. Litwak, E. and Longino, Jr., C. 1987. Migration patterns among the elderly: A developmental perspective. Gerontologist 27:266-272. 9. Longino, Jr., C., Wiseman, R. , Biggar, J., and Flynn, C. 1984. Aged metropoHtannonmetropolitan migration streams over three census decades. Journal of Gerontology 39:721-729. 10. Manton, K.G. 1988. A longitudinal study of functional change and mortality in the United States. Journal Of Gerontology: Social Sciences 43(5):153-161. 11. Patrick, C. H. 1980. Health and migration of the elderly. Research on Aging 2(2):233-241. 12. Rogers, C. C. 1993. Health Status and Use of Health Care Services by the Older Population. Rural Development Research Report No. 86. 13. Speare, Jr., A., Avery, R., and Lawton, L. 1991. Disability, residential mobiHty, and changes in living arrangements. Journal of Gerontology 46(3): 133-142. 29 30 Trends in Food and Alcohol Consumption Away From Home By Nancy E. Schwenk Consumer Economist Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion In the early 1970's, American households spent about one-fifth of their food dollar on food away from home. From the mid-1980's to the present, households have been spending about twice that proportion on food away from home. According to the 1992 Consumer Expenditure Survey, U.S. households allocated 38 percent of their food dollar to food away from home and 46 percent of their alcohol dollar to alcohol consumed outside the home. Consumers who spent the greatest share of their food dollar on food away from home were in the highest income quintile, under age 25, or living alone. Sales at eating and drinking places were up 134 percent between 1980 and 1993, with a corresponding 48-percent increase in the number of employees at these establishments. Factors that influence the decision to dine out include the increasing numbers of women in the labor force, the trend toward more one-person households, price competition among restaurants, and the interest in restaurants that offer some type of entertainment. Consumption trends when dining out, demographic influences, and other issues of concern to nutritionists, food policymakers, and restaurateurs are presented. e make food choices many times each day-what to eat, how much to eat, when to eat, and where to eat. Food and drinks can be purchased at food retail stores and consumed either at home (in someone's home) or purchased away from home in restaurants and other establishments. A number of factors influence our choice of where to eat, including time, convenience, cost, and nutrition. Many people, after a full day at work, Jack the energy or interest needed to cook. Very often, people dine in restaurants because they make a last-minute decision and just feel like going out or they want to socialize with friends and family. This article examines various trends related to food and drinks purchased away from home, including food prices; aggregate, household, and government expenditures; and restaurant trends-food retailing and findings from surveys of restaurant customers. Prices In 1994, prices for food, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.4 percent over 1993 (table 1). This annual increase was slightly less than the 2.6-percent increase for all items during the same period. The price of food at eating places-food away from home-was up 1.7 percent, Family Economics and Nutrition Review Table 1. Annual percent change in prices of food and alcohol, 1993-94 and average annual change, 1984-93. Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers [1982-84=100] Annual percent Average annual change percent change Group 1993-94 1984-93 All items 2.6 3.8 Food 2.4 3.5 At home 2.9 3.5 Away 1.7 3.7 Lunch 1.7 3.7 Dinner 1.8 3.5 Other/snacks 1.6 3.8 Alcohol 1.3 4.1 At home .2 3.6 Away 2.5 5.3 Source: U.S. Depamnent of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI Detailed Report, January issues. whereas the price of food purchased at supermarkets and other grocery storesfood at home-was up 2.9 percent. Between 1984 and 1993, the average annual percent change in prices for all goods and services was 3.8 percent, compared with 3.5 percent for food at home and 3.7 percent for food away from home. Compared with the other major components of the CPI, prices for food increased less in 1994 than housing (2.5 percent), transportation (3 .0 percent), medical care (4.8 percent), entertainment (2.9 percent), or personal and educational expenses (5.9 percent) (14). Since 1989, the increa e in the overall CPI has been greater than the increase for food away from home (fig. 1, p. 32). In 1994, prices for alcohol, as measured by the CPI, rose 1.3 percent, less than the average annual increase of 4.1 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 percent between 1984 and 1993 (table 1). The price of alcohol away from home increased 2.5 percent in 1994, compared with an increase of only 0.2 percent for alcohol at home (15). Expenditures Aggregate Expenditures Americans spent $197.8 billion on eating away from home in 1993, an increase of 9 percent over 1992 (table 2, p. 32). The expenditure for food at home in 1993 was $329.5 billion, only 2 percent more than was spent in 1992. As a portion of disposable personal income, food away from home increased from 3.7 percent in 1970 to 4.2 percent in 1993; food at home, however, decreased from 10.3 percent of disposable personal income in 1970 to 7.0 percent in 1993. Although dollars spent on food increased greatly over the years, the gain in disposable income was greater. Americans spent $197.8 billion on eating away from home in 1993, an increase of 9 percent over 1992. 31 After adjustment for inflation, food expenditures per capita increased 21 percent between 1970 and 1993, while per capita income increased 45 percent. As a result, the proportion allocated to total food (home and away) dropped 19 percent between 1970 and 1993. As income rises, the proportion allocated to food goes down, as there is more money to spend on other discretionary items (12). Americans spent $85.5 billion on alcohol in 1993, of which $37.4 billion was on alcoholic drinks consumed away from home at eating and drinking places; the remainder was spent on packaged alcohol purchased at liquor stores, food stores, and convenience stores. Although there was an increase from 1992 of $732 million, or 2 percent, in spending on alcohol away from home, this was offset by a 2-percent decrease of about $1.1 billion spent on alcohol at home (12). Household Expenditures The 1992 Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE), conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was used to obtain data on households' food and beverage purchases away from home. 1 Expenditures on meals and snacks eaten away from home in 1992 averaged $1,631 per household (table 3). Whites and others2 spent $1,717, whereas Blacks spent 1The Consumer Expenditure Survey defines food away from home as all meals or snacks purchased in restaurants, cafeterias, cafes, drive-ins, carryouts, and vending machines, including trips, plus meals as pay, school lunches, special catered affairs, and meals away from home on trips. Food at home is the total expenditures for food and grocery stores or other food stores (excluding nonfood items) and food prepared by the consumer. 2Category includes people who are White, American Indian, Aleut, Eskimo, Asian, and Pacific Islander. 32 Figure 1. Changes in consumer prices of all items and food away, 1984-94 Annual percent change in CPI-U 6 5 4 3 2 I \; I All items Food away 0 1~9784~----~876------~88~----~90~----~92~-----9~4 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPJ Detailed Report, January issues. Table 2. Food expenditures by families and individuals as a share of disposable personal income, selected years, 1970-93 Disposable Expenditures for food Year personal income At home Away from home Total Billion$ Billion$ Percent Billion$ Percent Billion$ 1970 722.0 74.2 10.3 26.4 3.7 100.6 1975 1,150.9 115.2 10.0 45.9 4.0 161.1 1980 1,952.9 179.1 9.2 85.2 4.4 264.4 1985 2,943.0 230.7 7.8 129.4 4.4 360.1 1990 4,050.5 306.7 7.6 172.4 4.3 479.1 1991 4,236.6 320.6 7.6 174.9 4.1 495.5 1992 4,505.8 322.1 7.1 181.7 4.0 503.7 1993 4,688.7 329.5 7.0 197.8 4.2 527.4 Source: Putnam, J.J. and Allshouse, J.E., 1994, Food Consumption, Prices, and Expenditures, 1970-1993, Statistical Bulletin No. 915, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Family Economics and Nutrition Review Table 3. Average annual expenditures of CE households on food away from home, by demographic characteristics, 1992 Demographic characteristic All Income quintiles Lowest 2nd 3rd 4th Highest Age (years) Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and over Composition of household Husband and wife only Husband and wife with children Single parent (at least one child under age 18) One person Race White and other Black Region Northeast Midwest South West Urbanicity Urban Rural Mean dollars $1,631 612 1,030 1,464 2,092 3,168 1,181 1,732 2,017 2,131 1,521 987 1,921 2,170 1,131 1,004 1,717 953 1,686 1,610 1,550 1,730 1,675 1,349 Source: U.S. Department of lAbor, Bureau of lAbor Statistics, 1992, Consumer Expenditure Survey, unpublished data. 1995 Vol. 8 No. 4 $953. Households in the West spent the most ($1,730), whereas households in the South spent the least ($1,550). Spending on food away from home increased as income increased. Those who had higher than average expenditures included married-couple households (both with and without children), homeowners, and those in urban areas, whereas those who had lower than average expenditures included households headed by someone either under age 25 or age 65 or older, single-parent households, single persons, and those in rural areas (14). Overall, households spent 38 percent of their food dollar on food eaten away from home in 1992 (fig. 2, p. 34). A similar proportion was spent in 1991, down from the 42-percent share spent in both 1990 and 1989. By comparison, about 20 percent of the food dollar in the early 1970's was spent on food away from home. Households that allocated a greater than average portion of their food dollar to food away from home included those in the highest two income quintiles, those headed by a person age 54 and younger, husband-wife only households, and Whites and others. One-person households also allocate a very large portion of their food dollar ( 44 percent) to eating out (14). The number of oneperson households increased from 21.4 million in 1970 to 41.8 million in 1992 (13). Households that allocated a smaller than average portion to food away from home included those in the lowest three income quintiles, those headed by a person age 55 and older, those families with children at home (both husband-wife and single-parent), and Blacks (14). 33 Figure 2. Portion of the food dollar allocated to food away from home, 1992 Demographic characteristic All Income quintiles Lowest 2nd 3rd 4th Highest Age Under25 25.34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and over Race White and other Black Percent 38 ................... 27 31 r-----------------~-. 36 41 45 45 41 39 41 35 r---------------------,----' 31 39 .................. . 30 • ~ All household average • < All household average Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1992, Consumer Expenditure Survey, unpublished data. In 1992, 46 percent of alcohol expenditures were for alcohol consumed away from home (fig. 3). This proportion was highest in the highest income quintile, in the two youngest age categories (under 25 years old and 25 to 34 years), and among those employed in technical/ sales or managerial/professional occupations or self-employed (14). 34 According to the 1992 Consumer Expenditure Survey, dinner accounted for nearly half of dining-out expenditures, lunch for about one-third, with the remainder consisting of snack, breakfast, and brunch expenditures (fig. 4, p. 36). Blacks spent equally on lunch and dinner out, whereas Whites and others spent 35 percent more on dinner out than on lunch out. By occupational groups, managers and professionals spent the most on breakfasts and lunches out, whereas construction workers spent the most on snacks. Retired people spent the least on dining out (14). The cost of food eaten on out-of-town trips in 1992 averaged $167 for all households. Households residing in the Family Economics and Nutrition Review Figure 3. Portion of the alcohol dollar allocated to alcohol away from home, 1992 Demographic characteristic All Income quintile Lowest 2nd 3rd 4th Highest Age Under25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and over Occupation Self-employed Managerial/professional Technical/sales Service worker Construction worker Operator Retired Percent 46 44 39 45 45 47 53 57 43 46 34 31 49 50 52 44 39 39 33 • ;;:.. All household average • < All household average Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1992, Consumer Expenditure SuNey, unpublished data. West spent the most ($201), whereas households in the South spent the least ($139). Another type of expenditure for food away from home is school lunches, which averaged $46 for all households. Husband/wife families with an oldest child between 6 and 17 years had the highest average school-lunch expenditure ($184) (14). 1995 Vol. 8 No. 4 Governmental Expenditures In addition to household expenditures for school lunches, households make further expenditures on food away from home indirectly through their tax dollars. The Federal Government, in cooperation with State and local governments, operates five food assistance programs to provide meals and snacks to preschool and school-age children.3 Expenditures for these programs-the National School Lunch, School Breakfast, Special Milk, Child and Adult Care, and Summer Food Service Programs, totaled $7.1 billion in fiscal 1993, a 6.6-percent increase over fiscal 1992 (3). 3Food assistance programs, such as the Food Stamp Program and WIC-the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, lower food-at-home expenditures if their value is not included. 35 The largest of these programs, the National School Lunch Program, served an average of 24.9 million children per day in fiscal 1993 at a cost of $4.1 billion, up from $3.9 billion spent and 24.7 million children per day served in fiscal 1992. The School Breakfast Program served an average of 4.9 million children per day in fiscal 1992 and 5.3 million children per day in fiscal 1993. Expenditures rose from $787 million in fiscal 1992 to $868 million in fiscal 1993. Many of these meals are available free or at reduced prices to economically qualified households (3). The Child and Adult Care Food Program serves meals to children in nonresidential child-care centers and family daycare homes and to chronically impaired adults and persons over age 60 enrolled in adult day-care centers. The program served 1.3 billion meals in fiscall993 with an average daily participation of 2.06 million people. This was up from 1.2 billion meals served and an average daily participation of 1.93 million in fiscal 1992 (3). Restaurant Trends Food RetailingSales and Employment Between 1980 and 1990, retail sales at eating places rose 120 percent and continued to climb through 1993. Retail sales at drinking places increased 22 percent between 1980 and 1990, peaked in 1992, then fell 2 percent in 1993 (1 3). Declining alcohol consumption, with price stability, was responsible for declining alcohol sales. Consumption of alcohol by the adult population age 21 years and over, which peaked in 1981 at 43.1 gallons per person, declined 8 percent between 1990 and 1993-from 36 Figure 4. Allocation of dining-out expenditures, 1992 47% Dinner Snacks, drinks Breakfast, brunch Source: Calculated from U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1992, Consumer Expenditure Survey, unpublished data. 40.0 to 36.8 gallons. The consumption of distilled spirits declined 14 percent, and wine and beer consumption declined 7 percent during this time (12). Millions of Americans are dependent on the food retailing industry for their livelihood-about 3 in 10 employees in service occupations work in food preparation and service (13). In 1993, 6.9 million workers were employed at the over 400,000 eating and drinking places in the United States, up from 6.5 million workers in 1990 and 4.6 million in 1980 (table 4). The average hourly earnings of production workers in this industry in 1993 was $5.35, up from $3.69 in 1980. The number of employees at eating and drinking places grew at an annual rate of 4.5 percent during the 1980's but is projected to slow to a growth rate of 1.9 percent between 1990 and 2005, based on assumptions of moderate growth. Specific job categories that are projected to grow faster than this rate are: Restaurant cooks (2.8 percent annual increase), food counter and fountain workers (2.3 percent), dining room and cafeteria attendants and bar helpers (2.3 percent), short-order and fast-food cooks (2.2 percent), food service managers (2.2 percent), and food preparation workers (2.1 percent). The growth rate for waiters is projected to slow to I. 7 percent (1 3). Family Economics and Nutrition Review T~ble. 4. Number of employees and average earnings at eating and drmkmg places, selected years, 1980-93 Production workers 1 Total employees average earnings Year (in thousands) (dollars per hour) 1980 4,626 $3.69 1990 6,509 4.97 1991 6,571 5.18 1992 6,485 5.29 1993 6,863 5.35 I Over 90 percent of employees at eating and drinking places are classified as production workers. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1994, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1994, [I 14th ed.] Findings from Surveys of Restaurant Customers Impulse Meals. A recent Roper Starch Worldwide survey found that 71 percent of Americans would eat most dinners at home, even if money were no object. However, 56 percent had eaten dinner at a restaurant or fast-food place during the week preceding the survey. Only 16 percent of survey respondents had not eaten out during the previous month. Most restaurant meals appear to be bought on impulse, serving as a timeand/ or labor-saving device for many. According to Waldrop (16), the most recent decision to eat out for 51 percent of Americans was made at the last minute. The most likely age group to decide to eat out on impulse was young adults under age 30 (64 percent). Seventy-five percent of trips to fastfood restaurants and 42 percent of dinners at full-service restaurants were last-minute decisions. The most frequent reason given by Roper respondents for eating dinner at a restaurant was that the respondent "just felt like going out." The next most frequent reason was "socializing with friends" (16). 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 Generation X. American consumers born between 1965 and 1976, often referred to as "Generation X," allocate nearly 25 percent of their discretionary income to eating out, and they go out to dinner more than any other age group, according to the National Restaurant Association's Consumer Reports on Eating Share Trends. At all types of restaurants, this age group prefers Mexican food, hamburgers, and sandwiches, with fast food accounting for 80 percent of their restaurant visits. These young adults tend to be less concerned about health and nutrition and are less likely than middle-age adults to consciously restrict their sugar and cholesterol intake. Generation X is interested in restaurants that offer all-you-can-eat specials, as well as restaurants with a lively, entertaining atmosphere, such as display cooking or live music (5). Men. Men, particularly those age 55 or older, are likely to be frequent patrons of lower check (average check under $10 per person) table-service restaurants. According to Nutrition and Restaurants: A Consumer Perspective, one-third of this sex/age group ate at this type of restaurant more than once a week. In contrast, only 13 percent of women reported doing so (11). Fast-food restaurants were also more popular among men, particularly those under age 35. Twenty-five percent of men, and nearly 33 percent of men ages 18 to 24, frequented fast-food places more than once a week, compared with 13 percent of women. Those age 55 and older were the least likely group to patronize fast-food restaurants. Men ages 35 to 54 were the group most likely to frequent self-service cafeterias or buffets, with 14 percent patronizing these establishments more than once a week (11). Carryout food from all types of restaurants was popular among men, with 20 percent reporting having purchased a carryout meal more than once a week. This figure rose to 30 percent for men ages 18 to 34. Also popular among these young men was purchasing a freshly prepared meal from a supermarket, convenience store, or deli-17 percent reported purchasing this type of meal more than once a week, compared with 12 percent of all men and 6 percent of all women. Delivery of meals from fast-food or table-service restaurants was used by only 2 percent of consumers more than once a week but by 39 percent at least once a month. Home delivery was reported most often by families with children and men ages 18 to 34 (11). 37 38 When dining out for a special occasion, 55 percent of adults were not concerned with nutrition . .. Menu Choices. According to the National Restaurant Association's 1993 survey, Nutrition and Restaurants: A Consumer Perspective, most Americans would like to see restaurants offer a wider array of healthy menu selections, including food offerings for people on restrictive diets. However, restaurant patrons' behavior does not always mirror their concerns. Only 55 percent of adults reported that they pay attention to the nutritional content of the food they eat. In addition, half of adults said they eat whatever they want whenever they feel like it. When dining out for a special occasion, 55 percent of adults were not concerned with nutrition, a proportion that had not changed substantially since 1986 when the study was first undertaken (10). Over three-fourths of respondents indicated that restaurants should offer different sized portions for different sized appetites, lessening the tendency to overeat. The National Restaurant Association's 1993 Menu Analysis compared 66 representative restaurant menus from 1988 with 1993 menus from the same restaurants: menus offering entrees with more than one portion size, such as "queen-size" and "king-size" steak, increased 12 percent during this period (10). Whereas, the 1986 survey reported consumers' concerns about sodium in menu items, the 1992 survey revealed consumers' concerns about dietary fat ( 10 ). However, customers are often unwilling to sacrifice the satisfying taste of fat when dining out, regardless of what they say to market researchers. For example, recent attempts by the fastfood industry to offer lowfat hamburgers, skinless chicken, and light Mexican fare were not received well by consumers. The targeted audience of healthconscious consumers who do not ordinarily frequent fast-food restaurants did not materialize. These marketing failures point out that consumers are very inconsistent when it comes to fat in foods-they tell researchers they are more interested in lowfat foods than they really are (1). Another way in which restaurants are addressing customers' concerns about fat is by offering a wider selection of meatless entrees, particularly pasta. The number of meatless main dishes on menus was up 23 percent between 1988 and 1993. In addition, 71 percent of surveyed customers reported that restaurants are usually responsive to special requests, such as serving salad dressing on the side. Consumers may have had their fill of nutrition advice from the news media-nearly half of respondents said they were tired of hearing about which foods are good or bad for them (10). Ethnic Entrees. The availability of ethnic-inspired entrees on restaurant menus rose from 37 percent of menu offerings in 1988 to 47 percent in 1993, according to the 1993 Menu Analysis. Most popular among ethnic offerings were Mexican and Italian, although Chinese, Thai, and Japanese were each up about 10 percentage points during this period. Ethnic food may address two possible consumer concerns: nutrition and cost. Unlike meat-centered American dishes, many ethnic dishes use meat only as a minor ingredient, if at all. Meatless dishes tend to be among the lowest priced menu entrees (8). Family Economics and Nutrition Review Pasta. Pasta orders in restaurants increased 38 percent between 1989 and 1993. During this time, the number of pasta entrees on menus rose nearly 60 percent. In addition, 90 percent of consumers surveyed in the 1993 Menu Analysis believed that pasta is a good value for the money and a healthy choice. Pasta experienced its greatest growth in casual-dining restaurants, where orders increased 69 percent from 1989 to 1993. Pasta also gained in popularity in fine dining, or higher check (average check over $1 0) restaurants, as well as in fast-food restaurants. Establishments offering pasta dishes are responding to customer demand for vegetarian alternatives-over 40 percent offered meatless pasta dishes in 1993, up from about 25 percent in 1988. Restaurant patrons with household incomes of $60,000 or more and those with professional or managerial occupations were the most likely groups to order pasta, whereas blue-collar customers were the least likely (6). Fast Food and Pizza. Several fast-food hamburger chains have added "value meals," also called "combo meals," to their menus. According to the National Restaurant Association, these value meals, which usually consist of a large sandwich, French fries, and a soft drink, are especially popular at dinner with a bargain-hungry public. Customers may have shifted some of their allegiance from pizza places to quick-service hamburger places in 1992. According to Edmondson (2), the market for pizza is now mature, having reached a low but stable growth rate. Customer counts at pizza places were up only 1 percent in 1992, compared with a 5-percent gain in 1989 and 3-percent gains in both 1990 and 1991. Customer counts at quick-service hamburger places were 1995 Vol. 8 No.4 up 3 percent in 1992. In an effort to compete with value meals, the major pizza chains added bigger pizzas to their menus (9). Quick-service pizza restaurants are heavily concentrated in the Northeast and the Midwest, whereas many areas of the South have none. After rapid growth over several decades, the number of stores (about 58,000) has not changed since 1992. The most frequent customers are young, affluent, collegeeducated adults (2). Coffee. In 1970, Americans drank 33.4 gallons of coffee per person, but by 1988, consumption had fallen to 25.7 gallons (12). However, the popularity of specialty coffees and the emergence of coffee bars helped per capita consumption reach 27.8 gallons in 1992. Coffee bars may serve as alternatives to traditional alcohol bars for socializing. Operators of table-service restaurants reported in the National Restaurant Association's 1994 Tableservice Operator Survey that customers were ordering more specialty and premium coffees in 1993, particularly in restaurants with higher average checks. Coffee consumption at fast-food places increased by 36 percent between 1980 and 1993. Fastfood places accounted for 42 percent of coffee consumed away from home in 1993. Coffee is increasing in popularity among young adults and even teenagers. There is a growing perception among younger consumers that coffee can be enjoyed throughout the day, not only at mealtime. Coffee ordered as a betweenmeal snack has risen steadily in recent years, whereas coffee ordered with lunch or dinner has declined. In 1993, 39 percent of coffee orders occurred with breakfast, 24 percent with lunch, 22 percent with dinner, and 15 percent as snacks (4). Premium Beer. During the 1990's, restaurant sales for all types of beer have been increasing, according to the National Restaurant Association's Tableservice Trends 1994. Although consumption per person dropped 7 percent between 1990 and 1993, this was offset by a price increase of 16 percent. In particular, consumption of premium beers--craft-brewed, made by a microbrewery or regional brewer in small batches-rose. The number of craft breweries operating in the United States grew from 30 in 1985 to 382 in 1993. The number of barrels of craft-brewed beer increased 40 percent between 1992 and 1993, whereas there was little change in the number of barrels of total beer sold domestically. Consumers seem to be more willing to pay premium prices for beer than for other products-over 40 percent of surveyed adults believed that some blends of beer are different and worth paying more for. According to the Consumer Reports on Eating Share Trends, between 1989 and 1993, the proportion of consumers with household incomes of $60,000 or more who ordered beer in restaurants increased from 15 to 25 percent. At the same time, the proportion of consumers with household incomes of less than $40,000 who ordered beer at restaurants declined from 58 to 45 percent. During the 1980's, 43 percent of beer orders in restaurants were from customers with professional or managerial occupations; 22 percent were from blue-collar workers; 20 percent were from agricultural workers, retirees, or unemployed people; and 15 percent were from those in clerical or sales jobs (7). 39 Summary For many years, prices of food away from home have risen more slowly than prices for most other major commodities, adding to the appeal of dining out. Demographic characteristics that influence household expenditure for food away from home include: Income (spending increases as income increases), race (higher among non-Black households), age of household head (highest among those ages 25 to 64), household composition (higher in married-couple families both with and without children), and region (higher in the West and in urban areas). Alcohol consumption among adults has declined over the past decade. Restaurant trends include: a deeper understanding of consumers' requests for wider menu selections and choices of p |
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