|
|
small (250x250 max)
medium (500x500 max)
Large
Extra Large
Full Size
Full Resolution
|
|
Institute of Home Economics, Agricultural Research Serviee_, UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT 0 AGRICULTURE Prepared for home demonstration agents and home economics specialists of the Agricultural Extension Service, this publication re:ports current developments in family and food economics, and economic aspects of home management. ANNUAL OUTlOOK ISSUE CONTENTS THE NATIONAL :mONOMIC SriUATIDN AND OUTWOK FOR 1961 • • • • • • • • • • 3 OUTlOOK FOR FAMILY LIVING • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 7 OtJTI.OOK FOR FOOD . . . . . . . • • . . • • • . . . . • . • . • • . . . • • . • . . . • . . . • . • • • . . . 9 OUTLOOK FOR APPAREL AND TEXTJLE HOUSEFURNISHIOO-S • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 11 OUTlOOK FOR HOUSING AND HOUSEHOLD .:m,UIPMENT • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 17 OUTLOOK FOR COSTS OF ATTENDING COLLEGE •••••••••••••••••••••••• 2l ESTIMATED COST OF 1 WEEK'S FOOD ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 26 CONSt:J1.1:E!R. PRICES . • . . . • . • • • . . • • • • • • . • • • • . • • • . • • • . . • • . • . • • . • . • • • . 28 ARS 62-5 December 1960 Washington, D. C • The articles making up this issue of Family Economics Review are condensations of talks given at the 38th Annual National Agricultural Outlook Conference, held in Washington, D. C • , November 14-17, 1960. THE NATIONAL :mONOMIC SITUATION AND OUTlOOK FOR 1961 Nathan M. Koffsky Agricultural Marketing Service After a period of advance from the brief recession of 1957-58, the economy has once agaln leveled off, with some easing noted in recent months. There is at present a rough balance of the forces making for economic expansion and those for decline, which may persist for some months into 1961. However, the weight of the evidence is that the uptrend in economic activity will be reestablished as the year progresses. The flow of income to consumers continues to increase and is currently at a record high--some 5 or 6 percent above a year ago. For the period immediately ahead, consumer income should oold at least steady, at a level above a year earlier. As economic growth is resumed in 1961, further increases in consumer income will be generated. With prospects that consumer prices will continue fairly stable, per capita purchasing power--currently at a rec~rd high--may show a fUrther gain . . The past year So far this year, the Nation's output of goods and services--Gross National Product in constant prices--has averaged 3 percent above the same period in 1959. A slight decline occurred in the third quarter--but output was still significantly above the third quarter of 1959. Dnployment so far this year has averaged about a million higher than in the same months of 1959, and in September was a record high for the month. But with a large increase in the labor force, particularly of -women, unemployment in September 1960 was up about 150,000 from September 1959. Further, the length of the work week in manufacturing has shortened. On the whole, the general price .Level has continued to be fairly stable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics index of consumer prices in September was up a little over 1 percent from September 1959. Retail prices of commodities other than foods were about the same as last year. Food prices showed a small increase. Service rates, particularly those associated with medical care, continued to advance . The Agricultural Marketing Service index of prices paid by fanners for family living items in October was very slightly above October 1959. There was fairly broad strength in consumer markets in the first half of the year. Expenditures for durable goods rose slightly but were generally at a high level. (See table.) Automobile sales were at a rate well above 1959, and the highest since 1955. Expenditures for nondurable goods--including food--and for services rose about in line with the increase in consumer income available for spending. -4- Personal consumption expenditures (Seasonally adjusted annual rate) I 1st 2nd 3rd Change Item I quarter quarter quarter 1st l9b0 2nd 1960 1960 1960 1960 to to l 2nd 1960 3rd 1960 I Billions of dollars Personal consumption expenditures . I 323.3 329.0 328.5 +5.7 -0.5 Durable goods ................... 44.2 44.5 42.5 + ·3 -2.0 Nondurable goods ................ 150.5 153·5 153.0 +3.0 - ·5 Services ........................ 128.6 130.9 133.0 +2.3 +2.1 Consumer disposable income 347.0 354.1 357·5 +7.1 I ........ +3.4 Savings ........................... 23.7 25.2 29.0 +1.5 +3.8 Personal savings rate ............. 6.8rf, 7.lrf, 8.lrf, + .3rf, +l.orf, I Source: U. S. Department of Commerce. In the third quarter consumer spending was slightly reduced overall, with a substantial decline for durable goods. Automobile sales fell below a year earlier and an increasing proportion was the lower priced compact cars. There was weakness in furniture and appliance markets, reflecting the decline in residential construction. Expenditures for nondurable goods eased slightly, but continued well above a year earlier. The uptrend in expenditures for services continued. M::>re and more of the consumer dollar is being channeled into services, particularly those involving better medical care and recreational activities. Expenditures for services accounted for 33 percent of total consumer spending 10 years ago, 40 percent this year. Reductions in manufacturing payrolls in the recent quarter were more than offset by increases in unemployment compensation, social security payments for the aged, and pay to Federal employees . With incomes up in the third quarter and expenditures down a little, the rate of personal ,savings out of current income rose to over 8 percent, the highest in 2 years. Consumer credit outstanding has risen much less so far this year than in the same period in 1959. Although installment credit extended has increased, the gap between extensions of credit and repayments on debt has narrowed appreciably. Even so, total credit outstanding now represents over 15 percent of disposable income, the highest on record. Repayments have risen to the equivalent of more than 13 percent of income. Some analysts have noted that when repayments on consumer debt exceed 13 percent of disposable income, consumers tend to tighten up on spending. Outlays for residential construction have trended downward since early 1959, largely due to tight mortgage credit. Reductions so far this year have - -5- been relatively small, but expenditures for residential construction in the third quarter were down 7 percent from a year earlier. Expenditures for additions and alterations increased, but new nonfarm housing starts in recent months were 20 percent fewer than in the same months of 1959. A substantial part of the decline bas occurred on the West Coast. The rise in business investment in new plant and equipment slowed appreciably in the third quarter of 1960. The level of capital outlay is now 10 percent higher than a year ago, but its rise during the recent expansion phase has been less than in the expansion which followed the 1953-54 recession. Construction on the fann has smwn sane increase, but sales of farm machinery have been reduced . The business inventory situation changed sharply. In the first quarter of 1960 inventories were being built up at the rate of almost $11.5 billion a year, partly a rebuilding of stocks of steel and steel products depleted during the strike . In the second quarter the rate of inventory accumulation fell to a little over $5 billion . By the third quarter the buildup had ceased, and in the last few months the level of inventories has shown some reduction. Even so, inventories are 4 or 5 percent higher than a year ago while sales are up only 1 percent . Our net export balance has shown continued improvement during 1960. Commercial exports of merchandise are running some 20 percent higher than a year ago; imports have shown a small decrease . Our net export balance has not improved enough to offset our continued large foreign economic and military aid programs and an increased capital outflow, partly reflecting lower interest rates here than abroad and rising investment abroad by U. S. firms. Tlrus, the outflow of gold continued heavy. Government expenditures for goods and services have been rising this year, mostly due to rising State and local government outlays to provide public services and facilities for a growing population. The Federal highway program has been increasing . Federal Government purchases of goods and services rose in the third quarter, reflecting the Federal pay raise, enlarged CCC operations for 1960 record crops 1 and larger spending for defense. However 1 Federal outlays were still $1 billion under the third quarter of 1959, because of substantially smaller outlays for defense . The year ahead It seems clear that the contribution of Federal, State, and local governments to economic activity will be substantially greater in 1961 than in the year just past . Federal expenditures are expected to total over $3 billion more in the current fiscal year than in the year which ended last .June 30. A significant stepup is in prospect for outlays for the national defense. Expenditures by State and local governments will continue to rise. It seems likely that residential construction will increase somewhat. Purchase tenns have been made easier and mortgage funds have become more -6- readily available. However, with vacancy rates in. multiple housing units higher than a year ago, the increase in residential construction is likely to be moderate. During 1961 we may expect some decline in business investment in new plant and equipment. Yet it is not likely that the decline will be as large as in 1957-58, when it was 15 percent in a 6-month period. The technological race and increasing competition from abroad will encourage a fairly high rate of investment. MUch of the uncertainty as to the immediate future stems from the inventory sector. There may be some further reduction in the level of inventories in the coming months, but it should not be prolonged. It seems likely that most of the impact from a changing inventory situation is already behind us. Our net export balance will probably not change much during the year. Economic growth appears to be slowing in some western European countries and there has been some slackening in Canada. Nevertheless, much of the gain in exports realized this year will likely be retained. Imports may show some increase as our economic growth is resumed. Consumer buying will likely be a strengthening force in the period ahead. Consumer incomes have risen despite reductions in employment and hours worked in recent months. In the 1957-58 recession, total economic activity declined 4 percent without significantly reducing the flow of income to consumers or their expenditures. We expect more stability in economic activity in the months ahead than in 1957-58, and consequently a better employment situation. The current savings rate is unusually high and the pause in consumer buying in the third quarter will likely give way to enlarged spending. Perhaps we should not expect a vigorous upturn in spending for durables, al trough a rise in residential construction will likely increase purchases of appliances. Automobile sales may not be. quite as high next year as this year, and with compact cars approaching 40 percent of the total market the average outlay will likely be smaller. Further, consumers still have a record amount of consumer credit outstanding to digest. On the other hand, consumer expenditures for food, other nondurables, and services should be steadily augmented. Population is growing at the rate of almost 3 million a year, encouraging more spending, particularly for food. A year ago business sentiment was high and rising. We were leaving the fabulous fifties and entering the soaring sixties. Now that these expectations have not been realized in this first year of the decade, the talk has turned to the sober sixties. We are fortunate that the economy itself does not move in such wide swings as man 1s confidence in it. -1- OUTLOOK FOR FAMILY LIVING Laura Mae Webb Agricultural Research Service There are likely to be divergent price trends during the coming year among the various categories of goods and services which families (including farm families) buy . The largest share of the average family's expenditures is for foodJ indications are that retail food prices will be no higher in 1961 than in 1960. Apparel prices showed a slight advance during the past year, and are expected to remain at about the current level during the coming year. (See chart below .) CONSUMER PRICE INDEX City Wage Earners and Clerical Workers % OF 1947-49 Medical care 140 120 Food ' Apparel ........... ~..... ------... L-.-_,.-J --------.,---...-- 1954 1956 1958 1960 IJLS OI.T.A. SELECTED ITEMS; MI.RCH 1953-SEPTEMIJER 1960. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICUL,TURE NEG. 60 ( 10)·5623 AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH SERVICE -8- Prices for new cars, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, customarily decline in the months following the introduction of the new models; the decline for the 1960 models has been greater than usual. The increased popularity of compact cars has resulted in a substantial increase in production of domestic cars in the lower price ranges • Consumers have also benefited this year from substantial declines in used car prices and, in recent months, from lower prices for household appliances. Although it now appears unlikely that 1961 prices for automobiles and household appliances will differ much from current levels, purchasers of automobiles will benefit from the availability of lower priced models and price declines which have been recorded for other models. Prices for services--which now represent an appreciable share of the average family's budget--have been increasing much more rapidly in recent years than have prices for commodities. From September 1959 to September 1960 prices for services increased, on the average, nearly 3 percent as compared with about 1 percent for commodities. Household operation services, gas, and electricity are 3 percent higher than a year agoj medical care services are 4 percent higher. There is no indication that this rate of price increase for services will level off in the coming year. Recent legislation provides that the Federal Government will match State funds for assisting low-income persons over 65 meet their medical bills. To what extent individual States will initiate programs to obtain such funds remains to be seen. Many families planning to repair or modernize their homes, or build new homes, will likely find it easier to finance such work in the coming year. The Federal Housing Administration has cut the minimum downpayment required of a homebuyer who obtains an FHA-insured mortgage. The Farmers Home Administration has relaxed its regulations so that farmers who obtain a substantial portion of their income from nonfarm sources may now be able to qualify for loans to build a new home or repair or modernize an existing home. To qualify for such a loan in previous years the applicant had to obtain a substantial portion of his income from farm sources: Recent changes in Old Age Survivors and Disability Insurance under our social security laws will lead to the improvement of the economic position of many low-income families. Retired persons who supplement their social security benefits through wages may increase their incomes in 1961. Under the old law, many beneficiaries received more in total income (earnings plus benefits) if they limited their earnings to $1,200 a year. Under the new law, which becomes effective in January 1961 this is no longer true. A beneficiary who earns over $1,200 a year will always receive more in combined earnings and benefits than if he earned $1,200 or less. Severely disabled workers under 50 years of age also benefit by new legislation, beginning immediately. Previously workers had to wait until reaching 50 to .draw such benefits. Benefits will be raised beginning January 1961 for some children of deceased workers. -9- OUTLOOK FOR FOOD Robert J. Lavell Agricultural Marketing Service Food supplies through 1961 will be a little larger than they were this year, with the increase just about matching the increase in population. Consumer demand for food is expected to remain strong since general economic activity and employment will likely be maintained, with the flow of income to consumers continuing at a high level. Overall consumption of food per capita will likely be at about the same rate as in 1960. With food supplies and demand conditions little different from this year, retail food prices next year are expected to average close to those of 1960. Food marketing margins as well as prices received by farmers for food should be little different. Meat.--Civilian meat consumption in 1961 is expected to increase about 4 pounds per person. Most of the increase will be in beef, which should reach a record 89-90 pounds per person. Veal consumption is expected to increase a little, while lamb and mutton will be somewhat lower. Cattle slaughter in 1961 is expected to be heavier throughout the year than in 1960, with the increase mostly in lower grade beef. Pork supplies will continue appreciably lower through mid-1961 than in the same period last year. If the 1961 spring pig crop is expanded as now expected, the second-half pork output should be somewhat larger than this year. For the year as a whole, pork production will average the same on a per person basis. Retail meat prices next year may be about the same as this year's . The price of beef should average a little lower, offsetting a slightly higher average for pork. Poultry.--Poultry meat probably will be somewhat more plentiful in 1961 than in 1960. Average consumption per person is expected to be a little higher and average retail prices lower. Generally favorable 1960 prices to producers and the increase in large-scale production facilities will encourage the maintenance of high-level production even with uncertain price prospects. Eggs.--With the laying stock expected to be smaller than this year's, egg production in the first part of ·1961 will be down from 1960 . Supplies of eggs will pick up later in the year. Average consumption rate for . l96l is likely to be below the low rate for 1960. Dairy products. --Milk production in 1961 is likely to continue to increase Supplies of milk and milk products available for consumption are expected to be larger than in 1960. They should be more than ample to meet consumer demand at current retail price levels. -10- Consumption of fluid milk products per person may be somewhat less than in 1960, despite a probable gain for fluid low-fat and nonfat milk products. The long-term downward trend in consumption of butter, evaporated mil.k, and fluid cream probably will continue through 1961. Fats and oils. --Supplies of food fats and oils in the next marketing year will be large, though somewhat down from last year's record. A drop in lard production and reduced carryover of so:y'beans will more than offset the small increase in prospect for cottonseed oil and butter. Civilian use, per capita, of food fats is expected to continue close to the 46 pound (fat content) rate. The pattern of use will probably be similar to this year's, when increased use of margarine was offset by smaller consumption of butter and lard. Fruit.--Total supplies of fresh and processed fruits probably will be a little smaller through mid-1961 than they were this year. The drop will be mostly in fresh deciduous fruits and a few processed items. Supplies of fresh citrus fruits will be about the same . Supplies of fresh deciduous fruits will be somewhat smaller, mostly because of smaller apple and pear crops. Imports of bananas are expected to continue high. Canned fruit will be plentiful through mid-1961, but down somewhat from the same period last year. Deciduous fruit juices will likely be about as plentiful as they were last year. About as large a supply of frozen deciduous fruits and berries will be available in 1960-61, though supplies of frozen concentrated citrus juice probably will be smaller than a year earlier. Supplies of dried fruits will be about the same. Very large supplies of tree nuts are in prospect. Vegetables.--Not much information is available on production of vegetables in the first half of next year. Past experience, however, suggests that supplies of fresh market vegetables in the first half of 1961 are likely to be no larger than in the first half of 1960. Supplies of frozen vegetables will be at least as large as last year, but there will be slightly less canned vegetables. Civilian per capita consumption probably will average a little above that of last year for frozen vegetables and about the same for canned vegetables . Potatoes .--More white potatoes will be available through this winter than last, but materially fewer sweetpotatoes. Because of the supply situation, retail prices of round white potatoes may be a little lower, but russets may be about the same as last season. Higher prices than a year earlier are in prospect for sweetpotatoes. Civilian per capita consumption of white potatoes and potato products combined should be about the same as :Last year, or slightly higher. Consumption of sweetpotatoes is expected to be down quite a bit. -ll- Cereal food products. --Grain supplies will continue very large. Record supplies of wheat and com will be available. Oat supplies will be about the same, but rice and barley supplies will be down about 5 percent. Per capita civilian consumption of cereal food products is expected to be close to last year's rate. Sugar.--Production of beet sugar for 1960 promises to be record large. Record production is also expected from mainland sugar cane. World supplies are more than enough to meet U. S. import req_uirements, but some of it is located in distant areas • OUTI.DOK FOR APPAREL AND TEXTILE HOUSEruRNISHINGS Ethel D. Hoover U. S. Department of Labor Trends of apparel and bousefumishings prices Since the end of the war, retail prices for apparel as a group (including footwear) have shown less increase than on any other of the eight major groups y in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI). It was not until September 1960 that the apparel index reached a level as high as 10 percent above 1947-1949, compared with almost 27 percent for all commodities and services. As chart l (page 12) shows, the fluctuations in apparel prices, both up and down, have been moderate, particularly since the Korean period. Retail apparel prices edged downward through the first part of 1955 to 3 percent above 1947-49. Since that time they have moved upward at a relatively slow pace (the average for the year 1956 was 5.5 percent above 1947-49; 1957, 6.9 percent above; 1958,. 7.0 percent; and 1959, 7.9 percent) and have continued to rise during the first 9 months of 1960. Retail prices for textile housefUrnishings show almost the same pattern of change. From September 1959 to September 1960, prices of textile bousefurnishings increased 1.3 percent, compared with a 3.4 percent decline in the preceding 6 years. The averages, of course, are made up of items which may show different price movements. Chart 2 (page 12) shows the trends in prices for men 1s and boys 1 , women's and girls 1 , and other apparel. Prices for men 1 s and boys 1 y The eight major groups referred to are Food, Housing (including rent, home maintenance, gas, electricity and fuels, household operation, and textile and other house fUrnishings), Apparel (including footwear), Transportation, Medical Care, Personal Care, Reading and Recreation, and Other Goods and Services. Cbart ~ -12- CONSUMER PRICE INDEX All Items and Apparel 1947-49:100 INDEX 140 130 L-~---L--~~~-L--J---L-~--~--~~---L--J---L-~ 80 1947 '48 '49 'SO '51 '52 '53 '54 'SS '56 '57 '58 '59 '60 1961 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR • BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Cbart 2 QUARTERLY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Apparel and Apparel Subgroups MONTHLY 1947-49•100 INDEX 150 140 130 L----L~~L----L--~ L----L----L----L----~~~~~ ·0 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR · BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS -13- clothing have increased more than for the other two, 12 percent since 1947-49, as compared with 1 percent for women's and girls' and a decline of 7 percent for "other"; and in the past year 2. 7 percent for men 1 s and boys 1 and 1 percent or less for the pther two subgroups. When apparel items are classified according to major fiber content, the reasons for these differences are apparent. Men 1 s and boys 1 clothes are still primarily wool and cotton. In women's clDthing the manmade fibers are more important. Since 1953, prices of wool apparel have increased 4 percent and cotton apparel 6.5 percent, while manmade fiber apparel has gone down 6.0 percent. The somewhat higher apparel prices this year are linked with the healthier condition of the textile industry. Retail sales for the first 8 months of 1960 were higher than for a like period last year. Estimates by the Department of Commerce indicate a sales gain of about 3-1/3 percent for men's and boys' wear and 1-1/3 percent for women's and girls' wear. Consumer buying has shown little inclination to curtailment, in apparel as in many other lines. Although the dollar volume of retail sales of apparel and housefu.rnishings has not shown a great spurt, it has increased somewhat more than would be accounted for by population growth. With signs of sustained but not greatly increased buying and with no apparent general pressures on prices either upward or downward, I would expect that prices of apparel and housefurnishings will show relatively small changes during the next year (other than the normal seasonal changes) with perhaps a slight upward drift. Trends. in the use of textile fibers In 1959, cotton and wool represented almost 70 percent of the civilian per capita consumption of the major fibers used in the United States for all purposes. This is, of course, a reduction from earlier years. In 1940, cotton was about 80 percent of the per capita use of all major fibers. By 1950 cotton had been reduced to 66 percent, with rayon and acetate growing in importance. The reduction in use of cotton since 1950 has been continuing, but at a slower rate than in the preceding 10 years. Between 1920 and 1950, wool varied somewhere between 9 and 13 percent of total per capita consumption. Since 1950, wool's share has fluctuated around 8 to 8-1/2 percent of the total. After the dramatic increase in rayon and acetate from practically nothing in 1920 to just over 20 percent of the total in 1950, the proportions of the cellulosic fibers remained at about the same level in the past decade. In recent years the newer manmade fibers are duplicating the prewar rayon picture. By 194o, rayon had displaced the older fibers to the extent that it was 11 percent of the total. In 1959 rayon and acetate are in a fairly stable position, with other manmade fibers representing 11 percent. During the next year some changes may Qccur in these proportions of fiber used, but I would expect such changes to be relatively minor. -14- Product develo~ent in the textile field Blends.--The appearance, feel, variety, and durability of products made from the natural fibers still constitute the standards by which the consumer judges products of manmade fibers. Some of the consumer dissatisfactions with manmade fibers products stem from deficiencies in the perfonnance of some of these fibers, not only because they have not lived up to miracle claims, but also because we make comparisons with the natural fiber products. It is expected the natural fiber products will continue to maintain dominance in use in the immediate future, not only because of their use apart from manmade fibers, but also because many of the newer fibers are more satisfactory in performance and appearance when combined with the natural ~nes · One textile authority has indicated that the most successful use of man.: made fibers is in blends with natural fibers. In his opinion, blending is "far more than a technical and commercial device--it is the birth of a new art," and manmade fibers do not replace natural fibers but "improve them by compensating for nature 1 s deficiencies in performance." ?J The new rules and regulations issued by the Federal Trade Commission under the Textile Fiber Products Identification Act (effective March 3, 1960) provide for identification of all fibers used in any article if the fiber is present in the amount of more than 5 percent. Such identification must be according to the generic names, ]/ although fiber trademarks may also be used. What is still missing on the labels are expectations of performance. Even in this field, however, we have come a long way from the time when we only knew whether a garment was washable or had to be drycleaned. In addition to label information that provides better guides on garment. care, there are more and more reports becoming available to the general public on performance . This coming year will undoubtedly bring forth an even greater variety of blends, with a greater number of blends of manmade and natural fibers. Trends to lighter weights.--Some years ago, the BLS list of items priced for the CPI included a man's suit of 14 to 15 ounce per yard worsted fabric. This was the standard suit throughout a large part of the United States for year-round wear. The typical summer dress suit was an all-wool tropical worsted made of 10 to 11 ounce per yard fabric. This was prewar. By 1952, the most popular year-round suit was made of 13 to 13-1/2 ounce per yard, the tropical wors~ed w~ generally 9 to 10 ounce per yard. This year the heaviest year-round su1t pr1ced is a 12 to 12-1/2 ounce per yard with a substantial number of q_uotations as low as 10 ounces per yard • The summ er dre ss su1· t s are :2::/1 Charles de Cizancourt. 11Whithe r Man-Made Fibers" .American Fabrics No. 50, pp. 45-52. Summer 1960. J/ .The rules and regulations provide the definitions ·for the following gener1c names for manufactured fibers· Acr 1' acetate saran azlon nyt .1 1 · Y lc, modacrylic, polyester, rayon, metallic' and g' lass ' A lisr1t , f nty ond ' rubbe.r ' spandex' vin al , o 1 e fin , vin yon, Fabrics ' No. 47 Fa.l l 1 o ra e and flber names al . Am . 959 d . . so appear 1n er1can ' ' an m varwus issues of Textile Organon. -15- also lighter--8 ounces per yard or less--and come in a variety of fibers and blends. Men's suits provided the first clear indication to us of the gradual change to lighter weight fabrics in the men's wear industry. This trend has been continuing at a faster pace recently in most of the categories of apparel. One development in the fabric field this fall and winter is the use of foam and new synthetic fibers to achieve warmth wi tbout weight. A layer of foam about 1/32 of an inch in thickness, whose ingredients are many of the same chemicals used in the synthetic fibers, is laminated to fabric through heat fusion or by an adhesive. The foam acts as an interlining. Some of the fibers that have been used only for sweaters or shirting fabrics up to this time are now being used for outdoor garments. The weight of a garment made of these laminates is much less than the older fabrics. One description of short outdoor coats for men stated "The old sheeplined coats and the famous Mackinaw were weighty defenses against the elements, but you had to be in pretty good shape to wear them. The fabrics used in those old outdoor coats weighed anywhere from 32 to 40 ounces per yard of fabric; the new foam interlinings weigh 2 to 4 ounces per yard." 'if I would expect to see greater use of these laminated fabrics during the next year in rainwear, jackets, and sweaters. Advertisements of these fabrics state that they are washable. Another development is the expected extension in the uses of elastic threads and fabrics . The strong but fine elastic threads developed in recent years will probably show up in great volume in stretch fabrics, particularly in women's undergarments. One new fabric of two-ply worsted and wrapped elastic yarn is being suggested for stretch pants. Another fabric I would expect to see more generally used in girdles, brassieres, and perhaps swimwear is a lightweight, machine-washable, rubberless, stretch spandex satin. Lightweight lena weaves with elastic threads are also being used in increasing volume for strapless underwear. The lightweight nonwoven textiles 2/ are expected to be used to an increasing extent, particularly for interlining for wash-and-wear clothing. A new one is made of Dacron, and tests of its use as interlining indicate a high performance, particularly on dimensional . stability and capacity to recover from creasing. Easy-care .--"Easy-care" garments were embraced very widely, particularly by women with small children. But complaints were soon forthcoming, primarily because consumers were inclined to take exaggerated selling claims at their face value and could not, without additional information, know bow the garment sbould be handled or what to expect in performance. Bit by bit information is being made available through the industry, ~men's magazines, the Department of Agriculture, testing laboratories, and similar organizations. In 1958 the National Association of Shirt, Pajama and Sportswear Manufactures set standards for terms used in selling and advertising. These standards are expressed 'if New York Times Magazine, September ll, 1960 - Report on Men's Wear, p. 91. 2/ Sometimes called "web textiles." -16- in everyday language with a minimum of technical woTds . Other efforts in this direction, as well as technical developments in fibers and finishes, have been proceeding to eliminate reasons for complaint and to provide a true wash-andwear · fabric • A new polyester fiber is being promoted as "unbelievably advanced in wash-and-wear performance." A cotton finish introduced about a year and a ba.lf' ago is proving satisfactory. Gradually the idea that for some "wash-andwear" items no ironing is needed is being dispelled. Fibers .--There are many new fibers in the experimental or early production stages that we can expect to find in some form or other in the .American market during the coming year. In the last year or so, we have seen the introduction of a new acrylic fiber (of which the best known is Orlon), which is reported to have the softness and easy-care properties of earlier acrylics, and to overcome two of their deficiencies--pilling and a limited color range, limited to pale pastels and whites. It is said to have greater resistance to pilling and readily accepts strong dyes but resists water thus retaining the ~uick drying properties. A new polyester have "muscle power." for a long period of is also said to have fiber is said to have the "ability to remember" and to A garment made of this fiber should stay fresh looking time and through inclement or lrumid weather. This fiber high resistance to pilling. A French man:nade fiber, a polyvinyl chloride, is being introduced in the .American market. One property attributed to it is the ability to shrink up to 55 percent, so that by the application of heat to a woven fabric greater density is obtained and also interesting effects can be obtained in blends with nonshrinking fibers.~ One of the newest developments in the knitted fabric field is a washable blend of one form of this fiber with .American synthetics and the knitted fabric is reported to be difficult to distinguish from a fine wool jersey. This fiber is likely to be found in blankets, work clothing, cold weather clothing, and other articles in the near future. Another import--this one from Italy--is a polypropylene fiber. It is reported to have properties making for easy-care, high tensile strength, and good insulation. This fiber is claimed to be the lightest fiber in existence and makes exceptionally · lightweight fabrics . It is also said to have the advantage of low cost since it is obtained from propylene gas, a by-product of the oil refining process. I want to call to your attention the directory of Man-Made Fiber Brand Names that accompanies the most recent issue (No. 51, Fall-Winter 1960) of the .American Fabrics magazine. This includes all U. S. brands by types as well as the major brands made by foreign producers. ~ The Marketing Presentation section of .American Fabrics contains an account of the French fiber in the Spring 1960 issue and of the Italian fiber in the Fall-Winter 1960 issue. -17- OUTIDOK FOR HOUSING AND HOUSEHOLD muiPMENT George G. Johnson U. S. Department of Labor The rate of housing construction during 1960 shows abrupt changes from month to month. Arter several brief but encouraging gains September Commerce Department reports showed a slump of 17 percent from August--after allowance was made for seasonal change. It now appears that residential construction starts will total about the same as for 1958 but considerably below 1959. This prediction and later comments are my own view and are not necessarily those of the Department of Labor. Through the year, houses have not been selling readily and the market has become very competitive. The competition has been of benefit to consumers in that builders have been more progressive in marketing and construction ideas to make homes saleable . Demand for housing The rate of marriages has begun to increase slightly and is now up about 2 percent above 1959. Both 1958 and 1959 rates were the lowest since the depression in the thirties.!/ The large proportion of children and teenagers below marriage age in the population depresses the rate, of course. Since average income is higher than ever for newly married couples, it is to be expected that most will set up separate households. Only 2.4 percent of the married couples did not maintain their own households in 1960 as compared with 5.6 percent in 1950. gj The number of births is declining slightly; during the first 6 months of 1960 it was about 2 percent under the same period last year. The downturn is assumed to be only temporary since there appears to be no evidence of a trend toward smaller families . J/ The large post World War II baby crop will be reaching marriageable age in the second half of the 1960's. They will contribute to a possible total increase of l million households a year. }Y Additional shelter demand will come from the elderly. Liberalized retirement and employment opportunities have made it possible for an additional 300,000 persons per year, 65 or over, to maintain museholds rather than to "double up." y U. S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 8, No. 13. April 25, 1960. gj U. S. Bureau of the Census . Current Population Reports, Population Characteristics, Series P-20, No. 103. July 6, 1960. ]./ Ibid. !!:/ Ibid., No . 90. December 29. 1958. -18- We predict that the demand for housing will rise to new heights in the second half' of the decade. This assumes an adequate level of emplo;yment and other characteristics of a heal thy economy. Rates of new bous ing production Economists and housing people dif'f'er in estimates of just what quantity of housing should be added to the supply each year. The opinions might average out at about 1.5 million units including about 100,000 farm homes. According to preliminary census housing counts, we have added 1.25 million units yearly, on the average, since 1950. 2./ Additions to the housing supply other than by new construction are largely from conversion (creating new units by dividing existing units) and probably run about 200,000 a year. This means that the desirable total of 1.5 million units must include 1.3 million newly constructed units. The effects of an improving supply of mortgage money should be felt by 1961. Therefore, next year 1s total of units started may approach our goal of l. 3 million. The total for last year was almost 1.6 million. Fewer than l out of 5 homebuyers is able to pay cash for his home. Of the remainder who do not "take over" existing mortgages, about 3 of 4 finance their homes with conventional mortgages. The remainder use Federal Housing Administration or Veterans Administration mortgages. Since about 1956 VA mortgages have dropped in importance, and in 1959 represented only about 6 percent of the total number of new mortgages written. §./ New homes are often for sale only under FHA or conventional mortgages, both of which entail higher downpayments and, frequently, higher monthly pa;yments than VA financing. Lenders consider VA mortgages a less attractive investment because of their relatively low interest rates. Large apartment houses are being constructed at the most rapid rate since 1954-55· Indications are that construction of large multiunit structures is running about a third above the rate for 1959, according to Engineering News Record. I/ Mobile houses are becoming elaborate and production is soaring. Last year over 114, 000 homes on wheels were sold, an increase of 11 percent over 1958. Vacation homes production is boo~ing also. 5/ U. S. Bureau of the Census, Housing Unit Counts, HC(Pl)-1. September 19b0. §./ Housing and Home Finance Agency. Housing Statistics, Annual Data. March 1960. 7/ The Housing Institute, New York. The Housing Letter. September 3, 19b0. -19- Trends in costs o"f housing It is beginning to be easier to borrow money to buy or build a house than it was earlier this year. The cost o"f constructing a house, and therefore often the price, is higher than a year ago. The Boeckh Index o"f Residential Construction Cost was over 2 percent higher last May than 12 months earlier. Building materials are cheaper, on the average, but average hourly earnings in co!ltract building construction are up over 5 percent. ~/ Land has increased in price more than other elements o"f housing. The average site cost in FHA valuations increased "from $761 in 1946 to $2,362 in 1959. 2./ These prices, however, are not necessarily "for comparable qualities o"f land. Since land costs previously comprised roughly 10 or 12 percent o"f the cost o"f a house and now may represent 16 or 18 percent, we can estimate that about a third o"f the average price rise in houses since the late 1940's is caused by a rise in land prices. The outlook "for 1961 so "far as mortgage money is concerned justifies some optimism. The supply o"f money for mortgage credit has already increased slightly. Unlike earlier periods when shortages of mortgage credit developed, mortgage terms (other than interest rate)--such as downpayment and amortization-have remained quite stable. For example, VA loans still have downpaym.ents averaging 3 percent of the price and usually extend for 30 years • They are, however, scarce and hard to obtain. FHA mortgages for new homes are al.so typically for 30 years and require downpaym.ents of only 7 percent of the purchase price. The trend of cost for rental and owner-occupied shelter is upward; the rate of increase has been 1-1/2 to 2 percent a year. Urban homeowners tend to spend more than renters. Costs of rental and owner-occupied quarters of equivalent size and quality are about equal. 10/ Rent paid for a "fixed quality of shelter has advanced steadily over the decade, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. From December 1957 to December 1959 the rent index increased about 3 percent. The LDcrease for 1960 will be probably about 1 percent. Costs of homeownership as measured by the Consumer Price Index increased aJmost 3 percent from December 1957 to December 1959. About the same as for rent, these costs include purchase price, maintenance and repair, mortgage interest rate, hazard insurance, and property taxes . Of these, property taxes 8/ U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment and Earnings, Vo·l. 7, No-:- 4. October 1960. ~./ Julian Zimmerman, FHA Commissioner, as reported by House and Home. August 1960. 10/ Monthly Labor Review, "Monthly Cost of Owning and Renting New Housing," August and September 1954. -20- have shown the greatest increase. Local public services and install ations for water, sewer, schools, etc., have risen in price over several years and a r e expected to continue to rise. The Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finances for 1959 f ound more families planned to purchase homes in 1960 than in 1959. Thi s vol ume of purchases was not realized in 1960, according to the National Association of Real Estate Boards. Trends in housing construction and design The median size of new medium-priced and low-priced homes has increased for years. It is now about 1,100 square feet, if FHA mortgaged houses may be · taken as typical. The 900-square-foot house of 1950 had space for 2 or 3 . small bedrooms and 1 bath. A separate dining .room was out of the question unless the living room was unreasonably small. Today, space is often provided for an entrance hall, family room, second bathroom, and breakfast area . Besides a larger number of more spacious rooms, the planning is more imaginative. The prevalence of large families bas caused builders to attempt a greater separation by zones, for example, sleeping, living, and recreation areas. The split level accomplishes this most effectively. The rambler with finished English basement and the "L" shaped house also may be efficiently zoned. Builders have tried to increase the blending of the interior and exterior through greater use of picture windows, sliding glass doors, and patios or courts. The land site is being finished with more care by utilizing land configuration and existing trees. Household Equipment After a record year in 1959 for sales of household goods, we confidently expected continued strength in 1960. The boom failed to continue, largely because o:f the drop in new house construction. The average family buying a new home spends $1,569 the first year on furnishings and equipment, according to a study conducted by the University of Houston. This includes $635 for furniture, $710 for appliances, and $224 for yard and work tools. Department stores report a downward trend in sales of furniture and bedding, domestic :floor coverings 1 major household appliances, radios, and television sets. A few growth items such as dishwashers, garbage disposers, eye level ovens, and counter-top ranges moved up against the trend. From September 1958 to September 1960 prices of appliances have continued to move down slowly--about 1 percent oVer the 2 years. Prices for all bousefurnishings increased about 0. 5 percent, due to higher prices for textile housef'urnishings, furniture, and wool floor coverings. The outlook for prices -21- next year in these items is for stability or some strengthening to accompany the rise in the production and sale of houses. Quality improvement Among many of the older itelllS there has been an upgrading in quality which iB hard to evaluate in terms of price. For some items, objective comparisons can be made. For example, the standard table television set, priced for the Consumer Price Index in 1950, was a heavy, unwieldly model. It was complicated to tune, had a 16-inch picture tube, and retailed for about $275· The 1961 table model currently priced for the Index is light, attractively slim, and space conserving. It has circuit improvements that are readily apparent in tuning and a 23-inch picture tube. This model retails for approximately $220, or $55 less than its 1950 counterpart. The same trend holds true to a somewhat lesser degree for floor coverings and furniture. The American genius for technology and gadgetry has been apparent in the development and improvements of household appliances. The stimulus for product improvement has arisen partly from the strength of the replacement market in recent years. A consumer buying his second or third air conditioner or vacuum cleaner may be harder to satisfy than when he purchased initially. OUT:WOK FOR COSTS OF ATrENDING COLLEGE J. Harold Goldthorpe U. S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare The problem of financing the college education of children is one which a large number of families will face in the decade of the sixties. The demands of the national welfare, indeed our survival, call for the effective extension of educational opportunities to all young adults who desire them and are qualified to profit thereby. Although it is well known among the leaders of higher education that they face serious problems during the coming decade in raising vast sums to increase faculty salaries, educational services and plant facilities, a somewhat different financial problem concerns us: What does college cost students and their families, and how do they raise the necessary funds? Trends in tuition fees since l94o Data relative to institutional tuition charges for public and private higher institutions, the Consumer Price Index, and median family incomes over the last 20 years are presented in table 1. The family income data are for -22- families with heads between 35 and 54 years of age, the period·during which most parents are confronted with their children's college costs. The figures on the mean charges for tuition and fees are for 196 representative institutions. Each college and university of this group enrolled more than 1,000 fulltime undergraduate students. Together they accounted for 55 percent of the total undergraduate enrollment and a larger proportion of graduate students. Table 1.~-Median income of families with heads aged 35-54 years, the Consumer Price Index, and mean institutional tuition charge, 1939-1959 Median family income Mean institutional tuition Heads--35-54 years and required fees 2/ of age Consumer Public institutions Private institutions Year Percent Price Percent Percent Amount~/ relative Index Amount relative Amount relative 1939=100 to 1939 to 1939 to 1939 1959 .. -- -- 210 $194 249 $890 287 1958 .. $5,722 391 208 179 229 820 265 1957 .. 5,560 380 202 168 215 741 239 1956 .. 5,383 368 196 155 199 690 223 1955 .. 4,987 341 193 147 189 638 206 1954 .. 4,719 323 193 135 173 590 190 1949 .. 3,393 232 171 112 144 465 150 1945 .. 3,059 209 130 -- -- -- -- 1939 .. 1,462 100 100 78 100 310 100 -. !/ From reports of the U. S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Department of Labor. 2/ Mean tuition charges from 1939 through 1954 from: "Trends in Tuition Ch1irges and Fees," Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 301: pp. 148-164. September 1955. Data for 1955 through 1959 calculated for the same institutions. Between 1939 and 1958 median incomes of families with heads 35-54 years of age increased 291 percent. During the same period the cost of living (Consumer Price) index rose lo8 percent. In the publicly controlled institutions, many of which are the land-grant colleges and universities, the mean tuition charge increased approximately 129 percent, and in the private colleges and universities 165 percent. Judging from the figures for 1960-61 and recent announcements, the process of "upmanship" continues. An objective view of these data for the past 20 years suggests the following conclusions: (l) The rate of increase in mean institutional tuition charges has not kept pace with the increase in family incomes; (2) the increase in tuition fees lagged well behind the increase in the Consumer Price Index until about 1954 and then rose sharply ahead of itJ (3) mean tuition charges as a percentage of median family income declined materially. -23- In spite of this increase in median family income, the heavy impact of taxes in recent years has materially affected the net discretionary income of families. The burden of taxes for all governmental services--Federal, State, and local--is likely to increase during the coming decade. lobreover, the larger postwar families and the increased demands for higher education will add to the family burden of financing the education of more young people per family and the longer programs of educatio:J. many will pursue . A comparison of tuition fees during the past decade is shown in table 2. During this period the "overall" tuition increase was $2l5, or 86 percent. In the public colleges and universities the mean tuition fee increased 73 percen~ from $ll2 to $l94. For the privately controlled colleges and universities, the mean tuition fee increased 9l percent, from $465 to $890. In contrast to the rather modest increases of $49 to $l02 among public 4-year institutions, increases among privately controlled institutions ranged from $37l to $522. Table 2.--Mean annual tuition and required fees of l96 representative colleges and universities, l949-50 and l959-60 Mean tuition Number of and r equired fees Increase Type of institutions institutions l949-50 l959-60 y 5I Amount Percent All institutions ........ l96 $249 $464 $2l5 86 Publicly controlled ..• l20 ll2 l94 82 73 Privately controlled .. 76 465 890 425 9l Publicly controlled: Universities .......... 69 l38 240 l02 74 Liberal arts colleges . l9 80 l29 49 6l Teachers colleges ..... l7 89 l7l 82 92 Technological institutes 5 l42 22l 79 56 Junior colleges •.••.•. lO l8 30 l2 67 Privately controlled: Universities .......... 57 457 885 428 94 Liberal arts colleges . l4 439 8lO 37l 85 Technological institutes 5 626 l,l48 522 83 l/ Conrad, Herbert S. and Hollis, E. V. "Trends in Tuition Charges and Fees," Annals of the Academy of Political and Social Sciences; Vol. 30l: PP. l48-l64. September l955. g/ Preliminary Report (Department of Health, Education, and Welfare), Division of Higher Education, Office of Education. May l 960. -24- Student costsJ 1952-53 and 1960-61 To meet the need for accurate information on the cost of college attendance the Office of Education undertook a study several years ago. Questionnaire returns were obtained from 15,300 single undergraduate students enrolled during the academic year 1952-53 at 110 representative colleges and universities in 41 States and the District of Columbia. A summary of student expenditures for 1952-53, together with the estimates for the current academic year 1960-61 are presented in table 3. The mean expenditure of students enrolled in privately controlled colleges and universities was approximately $550 higher than that of students in the public institutions . Men students spent on the average $1,462, women students $1,273. Table 3.--Students' expenditures, 1952-53 (actual) and 1960-61 (estimated) Publicly controlled Privately controlled Major item institutions institutions 1952-53 1960-61 ~/ 1952-53 1960-61 y Mean total current expenditure .... $1,120 $1,300 $1,674 $2,100 Tuition and required fees ......... 151 225 546 863 Room rent ......................... 102 116 146 165 Board (regular meals) ............. 270 318 301 354 Clothing (including footwear) ..... 130 135 149 155 All other current expenditures .... 467 506 532 563 I y Estimates based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Indexes and the increase in mean institutional fees since 1953. The institutional tuition charge ($151 in public and $546 in privately controlled institutions) was a relatively small portion of the student expenditure for 1952-53. The major expenditures which make it difficult for lowincome families to send a son or daughter away to college are the board and room costs away from home rather than the costs of tuition and fees, books and supplies. Several factors appear to determine the cost of attending college: (1) Spending habits formed at home; (2) choice of college; (3) pressures of campus customs and mores; (4) size of family income and (5) whether or not a student lives at home. Regional variations enter the situation, as these mean expenditures show: Northeastern ........•....•..................... North Central .................................. Western .......•...•..••.•..................•... Southern ....................................... $1,676 1,262 1,209 1,164 -25- On the average, students who lived at home and commuted to college spent approxi.."'lately $1, 000 per year. Students who lived in private homes or college dormitories spent approximately $350 more; and students who lived in fraternities or sororities approximately another $300. Sources of student income One study for the year 1959-60 obtained data through personal interviews from a representative sample of 2, 700 families living in private homes. y This study indicated that the mean annual expenditure of single college students was $1,5501 and that for 3 out of 4 families expenditures varied between $950 and $2,450. Of the mean expenditure of $1,550, parental contributions accounted for $950, $350 was from the student, $130 was in the form of scholarship assistance, and $110 came from other sources. Half of the families who had had children in college during the past 5 years had set money aside in advance to help pay college costs. These families, on the average, began 10 years earlier to save .such funds . In about one-fifth of the families the mother took a job to help pay college expenses. Approximately half of the families indicated that it was necessary to reduce other expenditures or to live on a tight budget to meet their children's college expenditures. Fourteen percent of the families reported borrowing at one time or another and parents reported borrowing twice as often as the students. The authors commented on the reluctance of the parents to rely on loans . They stated "borrowing to pay for a college education is regarded by most people as something to be done only when the need is acute and no other funds are readily available • " Prospects for the coming decade A pressing problem confronting higher education in the decade of the sixties will be that of obtaining adequate financial support. Will an increasing portion of it have to come in the form of higher student tuition fees? This is by no means a novel question, but it is becoming more urgent. The principal argument for higher fees is that higher education is essentially a matter of personal advantage and hence should be financed to a larger degree by individuals. The average income of college graduates is usually higher than that of nongraduates, and the college trained have greater "ability to pay." A different philosophy holds that higher education is a social investment. This point of view holds that opportunities for higher education should be made available to all youth of ability, irrespective of family economic status. y Lansing, John B., Lorimer, Thomas and MJriguchi, C. How People Pay For College. Institute of SOcial Research, University of Michigan, Office of Education Cooperative Research Program. -26- The "social investment" character of higher education has not prevented public institutions in recent years from increasing their tuition charges. However, it is still ~uite unlikely that States will abandon tax-supported higher education in any substantial degree. It appears likely that student tuition charges will continue to increase, but probably in different ratios for the public and private higher institutions. ESTIMATED COST OF 1 WEEK'S FOOD The table on opposite page presents the estimated cost of l week's food to be prepared and served at home. The estimate is based on ~uantities of food in the low cost, moderate cost, and liberal plans. The plans are available as a leaflet--Low Cost, MOderate Cost, and Liberal Family Food Budgets, HHE(Adm.)-146. The cost of food for a specific family can be estimated from the table, since costs are given for individuals of different ages. These costs are based on averages of food prices collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 46 cities, and may not apply to any specific city or region. -27- Estimated Cost of 1 Week's Food, ~October 1960--U.S.A. Average Sex-age groups FAMILIES Family of two, 20-34 years 2/ ...•..••.... Family of two, 55-74 years~ ....••..••.• Family of four, preschool children ]/ ..•. Family of four, school children~/ ••.•.•. INDIVIIXJALS Children: Under 1 year ............•..........••.. 1-3 years •.•...•.•........•....•....•.. 4-6 years ............................. . 7-9 years ............................. . 10-12 years ••....••....••.•....•.....•• Girls, 13-15 years •••.•..........•..••..• 16-19 years ••••....•......•.•..•......• Boys, 13-15 years •.....•...•............• 16-19 years •..•.....•...•..•....••.•... Women: 20-34 years ........................... . 35-54 years •••.•.•..•.......•...•...•.. 55-74 years ........................... . 75 years and over •...•.....•••..•.••... Pregnant .•.•..•.•....•...••..••...•.... Nursing ............................... . Men: 20-34 years ........................... . 35..: 54 years .••••...•..•.......•...•••.. 55-74 y-ears ........................... . 75 years and over •....••..•.........•.• Low-cost plan Dollars 13.80 12.40 20.60 23.80 3.10 3-70 4.40 5.20 6.10 6.40 6.50 6.90 8.20 5.40 5-30 5.00 4.80 6.80 8.50 7-10 6.60 6.30 6.10 Moderate- Liberal cost plan plan Dollars Dollars 19.00 21.30 17.00 19.00 27-70 31.40 32-30 36.60 3-90 4.20 4.70 5.30 5-70 6.70 6.80 7.80 8.20 9.4o 8.70 9-90 8.70 9-90 9.60 10.90 11.20 12.60 7.60 8.50 7-30 8.30 6.90 7.80 6.50 7-30 8.90 9.80 10.90 12.10 9-70 10.90 9.10 10.10 8.60 9-50 8.20 9.10 1/ These estimates were computed from ~uantities in low-cost, moderatecost, and liberal food plans published in tables 2, 3, and 4 of the October 1957 issue of Family Economics Review. Quantities for children were revised January 1959 to comply with the 1958 NRC Recommended Dietary Allowances. The cost of the food plans was first estimated by using the average prices per pound of each food group paid by nonfarm survey families at 3 selected income levels. These prices were adjusted to current levels by use of Average Retail Prices of Food in 46 Large Cities Combined released periodically by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ?:/ Ten percent added for family size adjustment. For derivation of factor see pages 3 and 4 of the September 1960 issue of Family Economics Review. 3/ Man and woman 20-34 years; children, 1-3 and 4-6 years. 1JJ Man and woman 20-34 years; children, 7-9 and 10-12 years. -28- CONSUMER PRICES Table 1.--Index of Prices Paid by Farmers for Commodities Used in Family Living (1947-49 = 100) November 1959; March 1960-November 1960 Item Nov. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 1959 1960 All commodities ............ 119 118 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 Food and tobacco ......... -- 115 -- -- 117 -- -- 117 -- -- Clothing ................. -- 118 -- -- 117 -- -- 119 -- -- Household operation ...... -- 117 -- -- ll7 -- -- 118 -- -- Household furnishings .... -- 104 -- -- lo4 -- -- 103 -- -- Building materials, house. -- 122 -- -- 122 -- -- 121 -- -- Auto and auto supplies ... -- 142 -- -- 140 -- -- 139 -- -- I Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. Table 2.--Consumer Price Index for City Wage-Earner and Clerical-Worker Families (1947-49 = 100) October 1959; February 1960-0ctober 1960 Item Oct. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 1959 1960 All items .................. 126 126 126 126 126 126 127 127 127 127 Food ..................... 118 117 118 120 120 120 121 120 120 121 Apparel .................. 109 108 109 109 109 109 109 109 111 111 Housing .................. 130 131 131 131 131 131 131 132 132 132 Rent ................... 14o 141 141 141 141 142 142 142 142 142 Gas and electricity •••• 122 124 124 124 125 125 125 125 126 126 Solid fuels and fuel oil 136 139 137 136 133 132 133 133 135 136 House furnishings ....... 104 104 105 105 104 lo4 104 104 104 104 Household operation •.•• 135 136 137 137 137 137 137 138 138 138 Transportation .•••••••.•• 148 148 146 146 146 146 146 146 145 146 Medical care ••••••••.•..• 152 155 155 156 156 156 156 157 157 157 Personal care ............ 132 133 133 133 133 133 133 134 134 134 Reading and recreation .•• 120 121 121 121 121 121 122 122 122 122 Other goods and services . 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 133 133 I I Source: U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Click tabs to swap between content that is broken into logical sections.
Title | Family Economics Review [Dec. 1960] |
Date | 1960 |
Contributors (group) | Institute of Home Economics (U.S.);United States. Agricultural Research Service;Consumer and Food Economics Research Division;Consumer and Food Economics Institute (U.S.);United States Science and Education Administration;United States. Agricultural Research Service;United States Agricultural Research Service Family Economics Research Group |
Subject headings | Home economics--Accounting--Periodicals |
Type | Text |
Format | Pamphlets |
Physical description | 8 v. ; $c 27 cm. |
Publisher | Washington, D.C. : U.S. Institute of Home Economics, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture |
Language | en |
Contributing institution | Martha Blakeney Hodges Special Collections and University Archives, UNCG University Libraries |
Source collection | Government Documents Collection (UNCG University Libraries) |
Rights statement | http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/NoC-US/1.0/ |
Additional rights information | NO COPYRIGHT - UNITED STATES. This item has been determined to be free of copyright restrictions in the United States. The user is responsible for determining actual copyright status for any reuse of the material. |
SUDOC number | A 77.708:Dec. 60 |
Digital publisher | The University of North Carolina at Greensboro, University Libraries, PO Box 26170, Greensboro NC 27402-6170, 336.334.5482 |
Full-text | Institute of Home Economics, Agricultural Research Serviee_, UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT 0 AGRICULTURE Prepared for home demonstration agents and home economics specialists of the Agricultural Extension Service, this publication re:ports current developments in family and food economics, and economic aspects of home management. ANNUAL OUTlOOK ISSUE CONTENTS THE NATIONAL :mONOMIC SriUATIDN AND OUTWOK FOR 1961 • • • • • • • • • • 3 OUTlOOK FOR FAMILY LIVING • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 7 OtJTI.OOK FOR FOOD . . . . . . . • • . . • • • . . . . • . • . • • . . . • • . • . . . • . . . • . • • • . . . 9 OUTLOOK FOR APPAREL AND TEXTJLE HOUSEFURNISHIOO-S • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 11 OUTlOOK FOR HOUSING AND HOUSEHOLD .:m,UIPMENT • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 17 OUTLOOK FOR COSTS OF ATTENDING COLLEGE •••••••••••••••••••••••• 2l ESTIMATED COST OF 1 WEEK'S FOOD ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 26 CONSt:J1.1:E!R. PRICES . • . . . • . • • • . . • • • • • • . • • • • . • • • . • • • . . • • . • . • • . • . • • • . 28 ARS 62-5 December 1960 Washington, D. C • The articles making up this issue of Family Economics Review are condensations of talks given at the 38th Annual National Agricultural Outlook Conference, held in Washington, D. C • , November 14-17, 1960. THE NATIONAL :mONOMIC SITUATION AND OUTlOOK FOR 1961 Nathan M. Koffsky Agricultural Marketing Service After a period of advance from the brief recession of 1957-58, the economy has once agaln leveled off, with some easing noted in recent months. There is at present a rough balance of the forces making for economic expansion and those for decline, which may persist for some months into 1961. However, the weight of the evidence is that the uptrend in economic activity will be reestablished as the year progresses. The flow of income to consumers continues to increase and is currently at a record high--some 5 or 6 percent above a year ago. For the period immediately ahead, consumer income should oold at least steady, at a level above a year earlier. As economic growth is resumed in 1961, further increases in consumer income will be generated. With prospects that consumer prices will continue fairly stable, per capita purchasing power--currently at a rec~rd high--may show a fUrther gain . . The past year So far this year, the Nation's output of goods and services--Gross National Product in constant prices--has averaged 3 percent above the same period in 1959. A slight decline occurred in the third quarter--but output was still significantly above the third quarter of 1959. Dnployment so far this year has averaged about a million higher than in the same months of 1959, and in September was a record high for the month. But with a large increase in the labor force, particularly of -women, unemployment in September 1960 was up about 150,000 from September 1959. Further, the length of the work week in manufacturing has shortened. On the whole, the general price .Level has continued to be fairly stable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics index of consumer prices in September was up a little over 1 percent from September 1959. Retail prices of commodities other than foods were about the same as last year. Food prices showed a small increase. Service rates, particularly those associated with medical care, continued to advance . The Agricultural Marketing Service index of prices paid by fanners for family living items in October was very slightly above October 1959. There was fairly broad strength in consumer markets in the first half of the year. Expenditures for durable goods rose slightly but were generally at a high level. (See table.) Automobile sales were at a rate well above 1959, and the highest since 1955. Expenditures for nondurable goods--including food--and for services rose about in line with the increase in consumer income available for spending. -4- Personal consumption expenditures (Seasonally adjusted annual rate) I 1st 2nd 3rd Change Item I quarter quarter quarter 1st l9b0 2nd 1960 1960 1960 1960 to to l 2nd 1960 3rd 1960 I Billions of dollars Personal consumption expenditures . I 323.3 329.0 328.5 +5.7 -0.5 Durable goods ................... 44.2 44.5 42.5 + ·3 -2.0 Nondurable goods ................ 150.5 153·5 153.0 +3.0 - ·5 Services ........................ 128.6 130.9 133.0 +2.3 +2.1 Consumer disposable income 347.0 354.1 357·5 +7.1 I ........ +3.4 Savings ........................... 23.7 25.2 29.0 +1.5 +3.8 Personal savings rate ............. 6.8rf, 7.lrf, 8.lrf, + .3rf, +l.orf, I Source: U. S. Department of Commerce. In the third quarter consumer spending was slightly reduced overall, with a substantial decline for durable goods. Automobile sales fell below a year earlier and an increasing proportion was the lower priced compact cars. There was weakness in furniture and appliance markets, reflecting the decline in residential construction. Expenditures for nondurable goods eased slightly, but continued well above a year earlier. The uptrend in expenditures for services continued. M::>re and more of the consumer dollar is being channeled into services, particularly those involving better medical care and recreational activities. Expenditures for services accounted for 33 percent of total consumer spending 10 years ago, 40 percent this year. Reductions in manufacturing payrolls in the recent quarter were more than offset by increases in unemployment compensation, social security payments for the aged, and pay to Federal employees . With incomes up in the third quarter and expenditures down a little, the rate of personal ,savings out of current income rose to over 8 percent, the highest in 2 years. Consumer credit outstanding has risen much less so far this year than in the same period in 1959. Although installment credit extended has increased, the gap between extensions of credit and repayments on debt has narrowed appreciably. Even so, total credit outstanding now represents over 15 percent of disposable income, the highest on record. Repayments have risen to the equivalent of more than 13 percent of income. Some analysts have noted that when repayments on consumer debt exceed 13 percent of disposable income, consumers tend to tighten up on spending. Outlays for residential construction have trended downward since early 1959, largely due to tight mortgage credit. Reductions so far this year have - -5- been relatively small, but expenditures for residential construction in the third quarter were down 7 percent from a year earlier. Expenditures for additions and alterations increased, but new nonfarm housing starts in recent months were 20 percent fewer than in the same months of 1959. A substantial part of the decline bas occurred on the West Coast. The rise in business investment in new plant and equipment slowed appreciably in the third quarter of 1960. The level of capital outlay is now 10 percent higher than a year ago, but its rise during the recent expansion phase has been less than in the expansion which followed the 1953-54 recession. Construction on the fann has smwn sane increase, but sales of farm machinery have been reduced . The business inventory situation changed sharply. In the first quarter of 1960 inventories were being built up at the rate of almost $11.5 billion a year, partly a rebuilding of stocks of steel and steel products depleted during the strike . In the second quarter the rate of inventory accumulation fell to a little over $5 billion . By the third quarter the buildup had ceased, and in the last few months the level of inventories has shown some reduction. Even so, inventories are 4 or 5 percent higher than a year ago while sales are up only 1 percent . Our net export balance has shown continued improvement during 1960. Commercial exports of merchandise are running some 20 percent higher than a year ago; imports have shown a small decrease . Our net export balance has not improved enough to offset our continued large foreign economic and military aid programs and an increased capital outflow, partly reflecting lower interest rates here than abroad and rising investment abroad by U. S. firms. Tlrus, the outflow of gold continued heavy. Government expenditures for goods and services have been rising this year, mostly due to rising State and local government outlays to provide public services and facilities for a growing population. The Federal highway program has been increasing . Federal Government purchases of goods and services rose in the third quarter, reflecting the Federal pay raise, enlarged CCC operations for 1960 record crops 1 and larger spending for defense. However 1 Federal outlays were still $1 billion under the third quarter of 1959, because of substantially smaller outlays for defense . The year ahead It seems clear that the contribution of Federal, State, and local governments to economic activity will be substantially greater in 1961 than in the year just past . Federal expenditures are expected to total over $3 billion more in the current fiscal year than in the year which ended last .June 30. A significant stepup is in prospect for outlays for the national defense. Expenditures by State and local governments will continue to rise. It seems likely that residential construction will increase somewhat. Purchase tenns have been made easier and mortgage funds have become more -6- readily available. However, with vacancy rates in. multiple housing units higher than a year ago, the increase in residential construction is likely to be moderate. During 1961 we may expect some decline in business investment in new plant and equipment. Yet it is not likely that the decline will be as large as in 1957-58, when it was 15 percent in a 6-month period. The technological race and increasing competition from abroad will encourage a fairly high rate of investment. MUch of the uncertainty as to the immediate future stems from the inventory sector. There may be some further reduction in the level of inventories in the coming months, but it should not be prolonged. It seems likely that most of the impact from a changing inventory situation is already behind us. Our net export balance will probably not change much during the year. Economic growth appears to be slowing in some western European countries and there has been some slackening in Canada. Nevertheless, much of the gain in exports realized this year will likely be retained. Imports may show some increase as our economic growth is resumed. Consumer buying will likely be a strengthening force in the period ahead. Consumer incomes have risen despite reductions in employment and hours worked in recent months. In the 1957-58 recession, total economic activity declined 4 percent without significantly reducing the flow of income to consumers or their expenditures. We expect more stability in economic activity in the months ahead than in 1957-58, and consequently a better employment situation. The current savings rate is unusually high and the pause in consumer buying in the third quarter will likely give way to enlarged spending. Perhaps we should not expect a vigorous upturn in spending for durables, al trough a rise in residential construction will likely increase purchases of appliances. Automobile sales may not be. quite as high next year as this year, and with compact cars approaching 40 percent of the total market the average outlay will likely be smaller. Further, consumers still have a record amount of consumer credit outstanding to digest. On the other hand, consumer expenditures for food, other nondurables, and services should be steadily augmented. Population is growing at the rate of almost 3 million a year, encouraging more spending, particularly for food. A year ago business sentiment was high and rising. We were leaving the fabulous fifties and entering the soaring sixties. Now that these expectations have not been realized in this first year of the decade, the talk has turned to the sober sixties. We are fortunate that the economy itself does not move in such wide swings as man 1s confidence in it. -1- OUTLOOK FOR FAMILY LIVING Laura Mae Webb Agricultural Research Service There are likely to be divergent price trends during the coming year among the various categories of goods and services which families (including farm families) buy . The largest share of the average family's expenditures is for foodJ indications are that retail food prices will be no higher in 1961 than in 1960. Apparel prices showed a slight advance during the past year, and are expected to remain at about the current level during the coming year. (See chart below .) CONSUMER PRICE INDEX City Wage Earners and Clerical Workers % OF 1947-49 Medical care 140 120 Food ' Apparel ........... ~..... ------... L-.-_,.-J --------.,---...-- 1954 1956 1958 1960 IJLS OI.T.A. SELECTED ITEMS; MI.RCH 1953-SEPTEMIJER 1960. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICUL,TURE NEG. 60 ( 10)·5623 AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH SERVICE -8- Prices for new cars, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, customarily decline in the months following the introduction of the new models; the decline for the 1960 models has been greater than usual. The increased popularity of compact cars has resulted in a substantial increase in production of domestic cars in the lower price ranges • Consumers have also benefited this year from substantial declines in used car prices and, in recent months, from lower prices for household appliances. Although it now appears unlikely that 1961 prices for automobiles and household appliances will differ much from current levels, purchasers of automobiles will benefit from the availability of lower priced models and price declines which have been recorded for other models. Prices for services--which now represent an appreciable share of the average family's budget--have been increasing much more rapidly in recent years than have prices for commodities. From September 1959 to September 1960 prices for services increased, on the average, nearly 3 percent as compared with about 1 percent for commodities. Household operation services, gas, and electricity are 3 percent higher than a year agoj medical care services are 4 percent higher. There is no indication that this rate of price increase for services will level off in the coming year. Recent legislation provides that the Federal Government will match State funds for assisting low-income persons over 65 meet their medical bills. To what extent individual States will initiate programs to obtain such funds remains to be seen. Many families planning to repair or modernize their homes, or build new homes, will likely find it easier to finance such work in the coming year. The Federal Housing Administration has cut the minimum downpayment required of a homebuyer who obtains an FHA-insured mortgage. The Farmers Home Administration has relaxed its regulations so that farmers who obtain a substantial portion of their income from nonfarm sources may now be able to qualify for loans to build a new home or repair or modernize an existing home. To qualify for such a loan in previous years the applicant had to obtain a substantial portion of his income from farm sources: Recent changes in Old Age Survivors and Disability Insurance under our social security laws will lead to the improvement of the economic position of many low-income families. Retired persons who supplement their social security benefits through wages may increase their incomes in 1961. Under the old law, many beneficiaries received more in total income (earnings plus benefits) if they limited their earnings to $1,200 a year. Under the new law, which becomes effective in January 1961 this is no longer true. A beneficiary who earns over $1,200 a year will always receive more in combined earnings and benefits than if he earned $1,200 or less. Severely disabled workers under 50 years of age also benefit by new legislation, beginning immediately. Previously workers had to wait until reaching 50 to .draw such benefits. Benefits will be raised beginning January 1961 for some children of deceased workers. -9- OUTLOOK FOR FOOD Robert J. Lavell Agricultural Marketing Service Food supplies through 1961 will be a little larger than they were this year, with the increase just about matching the increase in population. Consumer demand for food is expected to remain strong since general economic activity and employment will likely be maintained, with the flow of income to consumers continuing at a high level. Overall consumption of food per capita will likely be at about the same rate as in 1960. With food supplies and demand conditions little different from this year, retail food prices next year are expected to average close to those of 1960. Food marketing margins as well as prices received by farmers for food should be little different. Meat.--Civilian meat consumption in 1961 is expected to increase about 4 pounds per person. Most of the increase will be in beef, which should reach a record 89-90 pounds per person. Veal consumption is expected to increase a little, while lamb and mutton will be somewhat lower. Cattle slaughter in 1961 is expected to be heavier throughout the year than in 1960, with the increase mostly in lower grade beef. Pork supplies will continue appreciably lower through mid-1961 than in the same period last year. If the 1961 spring pig crop is expanded as now expected, the second-half pork output should be somewhat larger than this year. For the year as a whole, pork production will average the same on a per person basis. Retail meat prices next year may be about the same as this year's . The price of beef should average a little lower, offsetting a slightly higher average for pork. Poultry.--Poultry meat probably will be somewhat more plentiful in 1961 than in 1960. Average consumption per person is expected to be a little higher and average retail prices lower. Generally favorable 1960 prices to producers and the increase in large-scale production facilities will encourage the maintenance of high-level production even with uncertain price prospects. Eggs.--With the laying stock expected to be smaller than this year's, egg production in the first part of ·1961 will be down from 1960 . Supplies of eggs will pick up later in the year. Average consumption rate for . l96l is likely to be below the low rate for 1960. Dairy products. --Milk production in 1961 is likely to continue to increase Supplies of milk and milk products available for consumption are expected to be larger than in 1960. They should be more than ample to meet consumer demand at current retail price levels. -10- Consumption of fluid milk products per person may be somewhat less than in 1960, despite a probable gain for fluid low-fat and nonfat milk products. The long-term downward trend in consumption of butter, evaporated mil.k, and fluid cream probably will continue through 1961. Fats and oils. --Supplies of food fats and oils in the next marketing year will be large, though somewhat down from last year's record. A drop in lard production and reduced carryover of so:y'beans will more than offset the small increase in prospect for cottonseed oil and butter. Civilian use, per capita, of food fats is expected to continue close to the 46 pound (fat content) rate. The pattern of use will probably be similar to this year's, when increased use of margarine was offset by smaller consumption of butter and lard. Fruit.--Total supplies of fresh and processed fruits probably will be a little smaller through mid-1961 than they were this year. The drop will be mostly in fresh deciduous fruits and a few processed items. Supplies of fresh citrus fruits will be about the same . Supplies of fresh deciduous fruits will be somewhat smaller, mostly because of smaller apple and pear crops. Imports of bananas are expected to continue high. Canned fruit will be plentiful through mid-1961, but down somewhat from the same period last year. Deciduous fruit juices will likely be about as plentiful as they were last year. About as large a supply of frozen deciduous fruits and berries will be available in 1960-61, though supplies of frozen concentrated citrus juice probably will be smaller than a year earlier. Supplies of dried fruits will be about the same. Very large supplies of tree nuts are in prospect. Vegetables.--Not much information is available on production of vegetables in the first half of next year. Past experience, however, suggests that supplies of fresh market vegetables in the first half of 1961 are likely to be no larger than in the first half of 1960. Supplies of frozen vegetables will be at least as large as last year, but there will be slightly less canned vegetables. Civilian per capita consumption probably will average a little above that of last year for frozen vegetables and about the same for canned vegetables . Potatoes .--More white potatoes will be available through this winter than last, but materially fewer sweetpotatoes. Because of the supply situation, retail prices of round white potatoes may be a little lower, but russets may be about the same as last season. Higher prices than a year earlier are in prospect for sweetpotatoes. Civilian per capita consumption of white potatoes and potato products combined should be about the same as :Last year, or slightly higher. Consumption of sweetpotatoes is expected to be down quite a bit. -ll- Cereal food products. --Grain supplies will continue very large. Record supplies of wheat and com will be available. Oat supplies will be about the same, but rice and barley supplies will be down about 5 percent. Per capita civilian consumption of cereal food products is expected to be close to last year's rate. Sugar.--Production of beet sugar for 1960 promises to be record large. Record production is also expected from mainland sugar cane. World supplies are more than enough to meet U. S. import req_uirements, but some of it is located in distant areas • OUTI.DOK FOR APPAREL AND TEXTILE HOUSEruRNISHINGS Ethel D. Hoover U. S. Department of Labor Trends of apparel and bousefumishings prices Since the end of the war, retail prices for apparel as a group (including footwear) have shown less increase than on any other of the eight major groups y in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI). It was not until September 1960 that the apparel index reached a level as high as 10 percent above 1947-1949, compared with almost 27 percent for all commodities and services. As chart l (page 12) shows, the fluctuations in apparel prices, both up and down, have been moderate, particularly since the Korean period. Retail apparel prices edged downward through the first part of 1955 to 3 percent above 1947-49. Since that time they have moved upward at a relatively slow pace (the average for the year 1956 was 5.5 percent above 1947-49; 1957, 6.9 percent above; 1958,. 7.0 percent; and 1959, 7.9 percent) and have continued to rise during the first 9 months of 1960. Retail prices for textile housefUrnishings show almost the same pattern of change. From September 1959 to September 1960, prices of textile bousefurnishings increased 1.3 percent, compared with a 3.4 percent decline in the preceding 6 years. The averages, of course, are made up of items which may show different price movements. Chart 2 (page 12) shows the trends in prices for men 1s and boys 1 , women's and girls 1 , and other apparel. Prices for men 1 s and boys 1 y The eight major groups referred to are Food, Housing (including rent, home maintenance, gas, electricity and fuels, household operation, and textile and other house fUrnishings), Apparel (including footwear), Transportation, Medical Care, Personal Care, Reading and Recreation, and Other Goods and Services. Cbart ~ -12- CONSUMER PRICE INDEX All Items and Apparel 1947-49:100 INDEX 140 130 L-~---L--~~~-L--J---L-~--~--~~---L--J---L-~ 80 1947 '48 '49 'SO '51 '52 '53 '54 'SS '56 '57 '58 '59 '60 1961 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR • BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Cbart 2 QUARTERLY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Apparel and Apparel Subgroups MONTHLY 1947-49•100 INDEX 150 140 130 L----L~~L----L--~ L----L----L----L----~~~~~ ·0 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR · BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS -13- clothing have increased more than for the other two, 12 percent since 1947-49, as compared with 1 percent for women's and girls' and a decline of 7 percent for "other"; and in the past year 2. 7 percent for men 1 s and boys 1 and 1 percent or less for the pther two subgroups. When apparel items are classified according to major fiber content, the reasons for these differences are apparent. Men 1 s and boys 1 clothes are still primarily wool and cotton. In women's clDthing the manmade fibers are more important. Since 1953, prices of wool apparel have increased 4 percent and cotton apparel 6.5 percent, while manmade fiber apparel has gone down 6.0 percent. The somewhat higher apparel prices this year are linked with the healthier condition of the textile industry. Retail sales for the first 8 months of 1960 were higher than for a like period last year. Estimates by the Department of Commerce indicate a sales gain of about 3-1/3 percent for men's and boys' wear and 1-1/3 percent for women's and girls' wear. Consumer buying has shown little inclination to curtailment, in apparel as in many other lines. Although the dollar volume of retail sales of apparel and housefu.rnishings has not shown a great spurt, it has increased somewhat more than would be accounted for by population growth. With signs of sustained but not greatly increased buying and with no apparent general pressures on prices either upward or downward, I would expect that prices of apparel and housefurnishings will show relatively small changes during the next year (other than the normal seasonal changes) with perhaps a slight upward drift. Trends. in the use of textile fibers In 1959, cotton and wool represented almost 70 percent of the civilian per capita consumption of the major fibers used in the United States for all purposes. This is, of course, a reduction from earlier years. In 1940, cotton was about 80 percent of the per capita use of all major fibers. By 1950 cotton had been reduced to 66 percent, with rayon and acetate growing in importance. The reduction in use of cotton since 1950 has been continuing, but at a slower rate than in the preceding 10 years. Between 1920 and 1950, wool varied somewhere between 9 and 13 percent of total per capita consumption. Since 1950, wool's share has fluctuated around 8 to 8-1/2 percent of the total. After the dramatic increase in rayon and acetate from practically nothing in 1920 to just over 20 percent of the total in 1950, the proportions of the cellulosic fibers remained at about the same level in the past decade. In recent years the newer manmade fibers are duplicating the prewar rayon picture. By 194o, rayon had displaced the older fibers to the extent that it was 11 percent of the total. In 1959 rayon and acetate are in a fairly stable position, with other manmade fibers representing 11 percent. During the next year some changes may Qccur in these proportions of fiber used, but I would expect such changes to be relatively minor. -14- Product develo~ent in the textile field Blends.--The appearance, feel, variety, and durability of products made from the natural fibers still constitute the standards by which the consumer judges products of manmade fibers. Some of the consumer dissatisfactions with manmade fibers products stem from deficiencies in the perfonnance of some of these fibers, not only because they have not lived up to miracle claims, but also because we make comparisons with the natural fiber products. It is expected the natural fiber products will continue to maintain dominance in use in the immediate future, not only because of their use apart from manmade fibers, but also because many of the newer fibers are more satisfactory in performance and appearance when combined with the natural ~nes · One textile authority has indicated that the most successful use of man.: made fibers is in blends with natural fibers. In his opinion, blending is "far more than a technical and commercial device--it is the birth of a new art" and manmade fibers do not replace natural fibers but "improve them by compensating for nature 1 s deficiencies in performance." ?J The new rules and regulations issued by the Federal Trade Commission under the Textile Fiber Products Identification Act (effective March 3, 1960) provide for identification of all fibers used in any article if the fiber is present in the amount of more than 5 percent. Such identification must be according to the generic names, ]/ although fiber trademarks may also be used. What is still missing on the labels are expectations of performance. Even in this field, however, we have come a long way from the time when we only knew whether a garment was washable or had to be drycleaned. In addition to label information that provides better guides on garment. care, there are more and more reports becoming available to the general public on performance . This coming year will undoubtedly bring forth an even greater variety of blends, with a greater number of blends of manmade and natural fibers. Trends to lighter weights.--Some years ago, the BLS list of items priced for the CPI included a man's suit of 14 to 15 ounce per yard worsted fabric. This was the standard suit throughout a large part of the United States for year-round wear. The typical summer dress suit was an all-wool tropical worsted made of 10 to 11 ounce per yard fabric. This was prewar. By 1952, the most popular year-round suit was made of 13 to 13-1/2 ounce per yard, the tropical wors~ed w~ generally 9 to 10 ounce per yard. This year the heaviest year-round su1t pr1ced is a 12 to 12-1/2 ounce per yard with a substantial number of q_uotations as low as 10 ounces per yard • The summ er dre ss su1· t s are :2::/1 Charles de Cizancourt. 11Whithe r Man-Made Fibers" .American Fabrics No. 50, pp. 45-52. Summer 1960. J/ .The rules and regulations provide the definitions ·for the following gener1c names for manufactured fibers· Acr 1' acetate saran azlon nyt .1 1 · Y lc, modacrylic, polyester, rayon, metallic' and g' lass ' A lisr1t , f nty ond ' rubbe.r ' spandex' vin al , o 1 e fin , vin yon, Fabrics ' No. 47 Fa.l l 1 o ra e and flber names al . Am . 959 d . . so appear 1n er1can ' ' an m varwus issues of Textile Organon. -15- also lighter--8 ounces per yard or less--and come in a variety of fibers and blends. Men's suits provided the first clear indication to us of the gradual change to lighter weight fabrics in the men's wear industry. This trend has been continuing at a faster pace recently in most of the categories of apparel. One development in the fabric field this fall and winter is the use of foam and new synthetic fibers to achieve warmth wi tbout weight. A layer of foam about 1/32 of an inch in thickness, whose ingredients are many of the same chemicals used in the synthetic fibers, is laminated to fabric through heat fusion or by an adhesive. The foam acts as an interlining. Some of the fibers that have been used only for sweaters or shirting fabrics up to this time are now being used for outdoor garments. The weight of a garment made of these laminates is much less than the older fabrics. One description of short outdoor coats for men stated "The old sheeplined coats and the famous Mackinaw were weighty defenses against the elements, but you had to be in pretty good shape to wear them. The fabrics used in those old outdoor coats weighed anywhere from 32 to 40 ounces per yard of fabric; the new foam interlinings weigh 2 to 4 ounces per yard." 'if I would expect to see greater use of these laminated fabrics during the next year in rainwear, jackets, and sweaters. Advertisements of these fabrics state that they are washable. Another development is the expected extension in the uses of elastic threads and fabrics . The strong but fine elastic threads developed in recent years will probably show up in great volume in stretch fabrics, particularly in women's undergarments. One new fabric of two-ply worsted and wrapped elastic yarn is being suggested for stretch pants. Another fabric I would expect to see more generally used in girdles, brassieres, and perhaps swimwear is a lightweight, machine-washable, rubberless, stretch spandex satin. Lightweight lena weaves with elastic threads are also being used in increasing volume for strapless underwear. The lightweight nonwoven textiles 2/ are expected to be used to an increasing extent, particularly for interlining for wash-and-wear clothing. A new one is made of Dacron, and tests of its use as interlining indicate a high performance, particularly on dimensional . stability and capacity to recover from creasing. Easy-care .--"Easy-care" garments were embraced very widely, particularly by women with small children. But complaints were soon forthcoming, primarily because consumers were inclined to take exaggerated selling claims at their face value and could not, without additional information, know bow the garment sbould be handled or what to expect in performance. Bit by bit information is being made available through the industry, ~men's magazines, the Department of Agriculture, testing laboratories, and similar organizations. In 1958 the National Association of Shirt, Pajama and Sportswear Manufactures set standards for terms used in selling and advertising. These standards are expressed 'if New York Times Magazine, September ll, 1960 - Report on Men's Wear, p. 91. 2/ Sometimes called "web textiles." -16- in everyday language with a minimum of technical woTds . Other efforts in this direction, as well as technical developments in fibers and finishes, have been proceeding to eliminate reasons for complaint and to provide a true wash-andwear · fabric • A new polyester fiber is being promoted as "unbelievably advanced in wash-and-wear performance." A cotton finish introduced about a year and a ba.lf' ago is proving satisfactory. Gradually the idea that for some "wash-andwear" items no ironing is needed is being dispelled. Fibers .--There are many new fibers in the experimental or early production stages that we can expect to find in some form or other in the .American market during the coming year. In the last year or so, we have seen the introduction of a new acrylic fiber (of which the best known is Orlon), which is reported to have the softness and easy-care properties of earlier acrylics, and to overcome two of their deficiencies--pilling and a limited color range, limited to pale pastels and whites. It is said to have greater resistance to pilling and readily accepts strong dyes but resists water thus retaining the ~uick drying properties. A new polyester have "muscle power." for a long period of is also said to have fiber is said to have the "ability to remember" and to A garment made of this fiber should stay fresh looking time and through inclement or lrumid weather. This fiber high resistance to pilling. A French man:nade fiber, a polyvinyl chloride, is being introduced in the .American market. One property attributed to it is the ability to shrink up to 55 percent, so that by the application of heat to a woven fabric greater density is obtained and also interesting effects can be obtained in blends with nonshrinking fibers.~ One of the newest developments in the knitted fabric field is a washable blend of one form of this fiber with .American synthetics and the knitted fabric is reported to be difficult to distinguish from a fine wool jersey. This fiber is likely to be found in blankets, work clothing, cold weather clothing, and other articles in the near future. Another import--this one from Italy--is a polypropylene fiber. It is reported to have properties making for easy-care, high tensile strength, and good insulation. This fiber is claimed to be the lightest fiber in existence and makes exceptionally · lightweight fabrics . It is also said to have the advantage of low cost since it is obtained from propylene gas, a by-product of the oil refining process. I want to call to your attention the directory of Man-Made Fiber Brand Names that accompanies the most recent issue (No. 51, Fall-Winter 1960) of the .American Fabrics magazine. This includes all U. S. brands by types as well as the major brands made by foreign producers. ~ The Marketing Presentation section of .American Fabrics contains an account of the French fiber in the Spring 1960 issue and of the Italian fiber in the Fall-Winter 1960 issue. -17- OUTIDOK FOR HOUSING AND HOUSEHOLD muiPMENT George G. Johnson U. S. Department of Labor The rate of housing construction during 1960 shows abrupt changes from month to month. Arter several brief but encouraging gains September Commerce Department reports showed a slump of 17 percent from August--after allowance was made for seasonal change. It now appears that residential construction starts will total about the same as for 1958 but considerably below 1959. This prediction and later comments are my own view and are not necessarily those of the Department of Labor. Through the year, houses have not been selling readily and the market has become very competitive. The competition has been of benefit to consumers in that builders have been more progressive in marketing and construction ideas to make homes saleable . Demand for housing The rate of marriages has begun to increase slightly and is now up about 2 percent above 1959. Both 1958 and 1959 rates were the lowest since the depression in the thirties.!/ The large proportion of children and teenagers below marriage age in the population depresses the rate, of course. Since average income is higher than ever for newly married couples, it is to be expected that most will set up separate households. Only 2.4 percent of the married couples did not maintain their own households in 1960 as compared with 5.6 percent in 1950. gj The number of births is declining slightly; during the first 6 months of 1960 it was about 2 percent under the same period last year. The downturn is assumed to be only temporary since there appears to be no evidence of a trend toward smaller families . J/ The large post World War II baby crop will be reaching marriageable age in the second half of the 1960's. They will contribute to a possible total increase of l million households a year. }Y Additional shelter demand will come from the elderly. Liberalized retirement and employment opportunities have made it possible for an additional 300,000 persons per year, 65 or over, to maintain museholds rather than to "double up." y U. S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 8, No. 13. April 25, 1960. gj U. S. Bureau of the Census . Current Population Reports, Population Characteristics, Series P-20, No. 103. July 6, 1960. ]./ Ibid. !!:/ Ibid., No . 90. December 29. 1958. -18- We predict that the demand for housing will rise to new heights in the second half' of the decade. This assumes an adequate level of emplo;yment and other characteristics of a heal thy economy. Rates of new bous ing production Economists and housing people dif'f'er in estimates of just what quantity of housing should be added to the supply each year. The opinions might average out at about 1.5 million units including about 100,000 farm homes. According to preliminary census housing counts, we have added 1.25 million units yearly, on the average, since 1950. 2./ Additions to the housing supply other than by new construction are largely from conversion (creating new units by dividing existing units) and probably run about 200,000 a year. This means that the desirable total of 1.5 million units must include 1.3 million newly constructed units. The effects of an improving supply of mortgage money should be felt by 1961. Therefore, next year 1s total of units started may approach our goal of l. 3 million. The total for last year was almost 1.6 million. Fewer than l out of 5 homebuyers is able to pay cash for his home. Of the remainder who do not "take over" existing mortgages, about 3 of 4 finance their homes with conventional mortgages. The remainder use Federal Housing Administration or Veterans Administration mortgages. Since about 1956 VA mortgages have dropped in importance, and in 1959 represented only about 6 percent of the total number of new mortgages written. §./ New homes are often for sale only under FHA or conventional mortgages, both of which entail higher downpayments and, frequently, higher monthly pa;yments than VA financing. Lenders consider VA mortgages a less attractive investment because of their relatively low interest rates. Large apartment houses are being constructed at the most rapid rate since 1954-55· Indications are that construction of large multiunit structures is running about a third above the rate for 1959, according to Engineering News Record. I/ Mobile houses are becoming elaborate and production is soaring. Last year over 114, 000 homes on wheels were sold, an increase of 11 percent over 1958. Vacation homes production is boo~ing also. 5/ U. S. Bureau of the Census, Housing Unit Counts, HC(Pl)-1. September 19b0. §./ Housing and Home Finance Agency. Housing Statistics, Annual Data. March 1960. 7/ The Housing Institute, New York. The Housing Letter. September 3, 19b0. -19- Trends in costs o"f housing It is beginning to be easier to borrow money to buy or build a house than it was earlier this year. The cost o"f constructing a house, and therefore often the price, is higher than a year ago. The Boeckh Index o"f Residential Construction Cost was over 2 percent higher last May than 12 months earlier. Building materials are cheaper, on the average, but average hourly earnings in co!ltract building construction are up over 5 percent. ~/ Land has increased in price more than other elements o"f housing. The average site cost in FHA valuations increased "from $761 in 1946 to $2,362 in 1959. 2./ These prices, however, are not necessarily "for comparable qualities o"f land. Since land costs previously comprised roughly 10 or 12 percent o"f the cost o"f a house and now may represent 16 or 18 percent, we can estimate that about a third o"f the average price rise in houses since the late 1940's is caused by a rise in land prices. The outlook "for 1961 so "far as mortgage money is concerned justifies some optimism. The supply o"f money for mortgage credit has already increased slightly. Unlike earlier periods when shortages of mortgage credit developed, mortgage terms (other than interest rate)--such as downpayment and amortization-have remained quite stable. For example, VA loans still have downpaym.ents averaging 3 percent of the price and usually extend for 30 years • They are, however, scarce and hard to obtain. FHA mortgages for new homes are al.so typically for 30 years and require downpaym.ents of only 7 percent of the purchase price. The trend of cost for rental and owner-occupied shelter is upward; the rate of increase has been 1-1/2 to 2 percent a year. Urban homeowners tend to spend more than renters. Costs of rental and owner-occupied quarters of equivalent size and quality are about equal. 10/ Rent paid for a "fixed quality of shelter has advanced steadily over the decade, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. From December 1957 to December 1959 the rent index increased about 3 percent. The LDcrease for 1960 will be probably about 1 percent. Costs of homeownership as measured by the Consumer Price Index increased aJmost 3 percent from December 1957 to December 1959. About the same as for rent, these costs include purchase price, maintenance and repair, mortgage interest rate, hazard insurance, and property taxes . Of these, property taxes 8/ U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment and Earnings, Vo·l. 7, No-:- 4. October 1960. ~./ Julian Zimmerman, FHA Commissioner, as reported by House and Home. August 1960. 10/ Monthly Labor Review, "Monthly Cost of Owning and Renting New Housing" August and September 1954. -20- have shown the greatest increase. Local public services and install ations for water, sewer, schools, etc., have risen in price over several years and a r e expected to continue to rise. The Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finances for 1959 f ound more families planned to purchase homes in 1960 than in 1959. Thi s vol ume of purchases was not realized in 1960, according to the National Association of Real Estate Boards. Trends in housing construction and design The median size of new medium-priced and low-priced homes has increased for years. It is now about 1,100 square feet, if FHA mortgaged houses may be · taken as typical. The 900-square-foot house of 1950 had space for 2 or 3 . small bedrooms and 1 bath. A separate dining .room was out of the question unless the living room was unreasonably small. Today, space is often provided for an entrance hall, family room, second bathroom, and breakfast area . Besides a larger number of more spacious rooms, the planning is more imaginative. The prevalence of large families bas caused builders to attempt a greater separation by zones, for example, sleeping, living, and recreation areas. The split level accomplishes this most effectively. The rambler with finished English basement and the "L" shaped house also may be efficiently zoned. Builders have tried to increase the blending of the interior and exterior through greater use of picture windows, sliding glass doors, and patios or courts. The land site is being finished with more care by utilizing land configuration and existing trees. Household Equipment After a record year in 1959 for sales of household goods, we confidently expected continued strength in 1960. The boom failed to continue, largely because o:f the drop in new house construction. The average family buying a new home spends $1,569 the first year on furnishings and equipment, according to a study conducted by the University of Houston. This includes $635 for furniture, $710 for appliances, and $224 for yard and work tools. Department stores report a downward trend in sales of furniture and bedding, domestic :floor coverings 1 major household appliances, radios, and television sets. A few growth items such as dishwashers, garbage disposers, eye level ovens, and counter-top ranges moved up against the trend. From September 1958 to September 1960 prices of appliances have continued to move down slowly--about 1 percent oVer the 2 years. Prices for all bousefurnishings increased about 0. 5 percent, due to higher prices for textile housef'urnishings, furniture, and wool floor coverings. The outlook for prices -21- next year in these items is for stability or some strengthening to accompany the rise in the production and sale of houses. Quality improvement Among many of the older itelllS there has been an upgrading in quality which iB hard to evaluate in terms of price. For some items, objective comparisons can be made. For example, the standard table television set, priced for the Consumer Price Index in 1950, was a heavy, unwieldly model. It was complicated to tune, had a 16-inch picture tube, and retailed for about $275· The 1961 table model currently priced for the Index is light, attractively slim, and space conserving. It has circuit improvements that are readily apparent in tuning and a 23-inch picture tube. This model retails for approximately $220, or $55 less than its 1950 counterpart. The same trend holds true to a somewhat lesser degree for floor coverings and furniture. The American genius for technology and gadgetry has been apparent in the development and improvements of household appliances. The stimulus for product improvement has arisen partly from the strength of the replacement market in recent years. A consumer buying his second or third air conditioner or vacuum cleaner may be harder to satisfy than when he purchased initially. OUT:WOK FOR COSTS OF ATrENDING COLLEGE J. Harold Goldthorpe U. S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare The problem of financing the college education of children is one which a large number of families will face in the decade of the sixties. The demands of the national welfare, indeed our survival, call for the effective extension of educational opportunities to all young adults who desire them and are qualified to profit thereby. Although it is well known among the leaders of higher education that they face serious problems during the coming decade in raising vast sums to increase faculty salaries, educational services and plant facilities, a somewhat different financial problem concerns us: What does college cost students and their families, and how do they raise the necessary funds? Trends in tuition fees since l94o Data relative to institutional tuition charges for public and private higher institutions, the Consumer Price Index, and median family incomes over the last 20 years are presented in table 1. The family income data are for -22- families with heads between 35 and 54 years of age, the period·during which most parents are confronted with their children's college costs. The figures on the mean charges for tuition and fees are for 196 representative institutions. Each college and university of this group enrolled more than 1,000 fulltime undergraduate students. Together they accounted for 55 percent of the total undergraduate enrollment and a larger proportion of graduate students. Table 1.~-Median income of families with heads aged 35-54 years, the Consumer Price Index, and mean institutional tuition charge, 1939-1959 Median family income Mean institutional tuition Heads--35-54 years and required fees 2/ of age Consumer Public institutions Private institutions Year Percent Price Percent Percent Amount~/ relative Index Amount relative Amount relative 1939=100 to 1939 to 1939 to 1939 1959 .. -- -- 210 $194 249 $890 287 1958 .. $5,722 391 208 179 229 820 265 1957 .. 5,560 380 202 168 215 741 239 1956 .. 5,383 368 196 155 199 690 223 1955 .. 4,987 341 193 147 189 638 206 1954 .. 4,719 323 193 135 173 590 190 1949 .. 3,393 232 171 112 144 465 150 1945 .. 3,059 209 130 -- -- -- -- 1939 .. 1,462 100 100 78 100 310 100 -. !/ From reports of the U. S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Department of Labor. 2/ Mean tuition charges from 1939 through 1954 from: "Trends in Tuition Ch1irges and Fees" Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 301: pp. 148-164. September 1955. Data for 1955 through 1959 calculated for the same institutions. Between 1939 and 1958 median incomes of families with heads 35-54 years of age increased 291 percent. During the same period the cost of living (Consumer Price) index rose lo8 percent. In the publicly controlled institutions, many of which are the land-grant colleges and universities, the mean tuition charge increased approximately 129 percent, and in the private colleges and universities 165 percent. Judging from the figures for 1960-61 and recent announcements, the process of "upmanship" continues. An objective view of these data for the past 20 years suggests the following conclusions: (l) The rate of increase in mean institutional tuition charges has not kept pace with the increase in family incomes; (2) the increase in tuition fees lagged well behind the increase in the Consumer Price Index until about 1954 and then rose sharply ahead of itJ (3) mean tuition charges as a percentage of median family income declined materially. -23- In spite of this increase in median family income, the heavy impact of taxes in recent years has materially affected the net discretionary income of families. The burden of taxes for all governmental services--Federal, State, and local--is likely to increase during the coming decade. lobreover, the larger postwar families and the increased demands for higher education will add to the family burden of financing the education of more young people per family and the longer programs of educatio:J. many will pursue . A comparison of tuition fees during the past decade is shown in table 2. During this period the "overall" tuition increase was $2l5, or 86 percent. In the public colleges and universities the mean tuition fee increased 73 percen~ from $ll2 to $l94. For the privately controlled colleges and universities, the mean tuition fee increased 9l percent, from $465 to $890. In contrast to the rather modest increases of $49 to $l02 among public 4-year institutions, increases among privately controlled institutions ranged from $37l to $522. Table 2.--Mean annual tuition and required fees of l96 representative colleges and universities, l949-50 and l959-60 Mean tuition Number of and r equired fees Increase Type of institutions institutions l949-50 l959-60 y 5I Amount Percent All institutions ........ l96 $249 $464 $2l5 86 Publicly controlled ..• l20 ll2 l94 82 73 Privately controlled .. 76 465 890 425 9l Publicly controlled: Universities .......... 69 l38 240 l02 74 Liberal arts colleges . l9 80 l29 49 6l Teachers colleges ..... l7 89 l7l 82 92 Technological institutes 5 l42 22l 79 56 Junior colleges •.••.•. lO l8 30 l2 67 Privately controlled: Universities .......... 57 457 885 428 94 Liberal arts colleges . l4 439 8lO 37l 85 Technological institutes 5 626 l,l48 522 83 l/ Conrad, Herbert S. and Hollis, E. V. "Trends in Tuition Charges and Fees" Annals of the Academy of Political and Social Sciences; Vol. 30l: PP. l48-l64. September l955. g/ Preliminary Report (Department of Health, Education, and Welfare), Division of Higher Education, Office of Education. May l 960. -24- Student costsJ 1952-53 and 1960-61 To meet the need for accurate information on the cost of college attendance the Office of Education undertook a study several years ago. Questionnaire returns were obtained from 15,300 single undergraduate students enrolled during the academic year 1952-53 at 110 representative colleges and universities in 41 States and the District of Columbia. A summary of student expenditures for 1952-53, together with the estimates for the current academic year 1960-61 are presented in table 3. The mean expenditure of students enrolled in privately controlled colleges and universities was approximately $550 higher than that of students in the public institutions . Men students spent on the average $1,462, women students $1,273. Table 3.--Students' expenditures, 1952-53 (actual) and 1960-61 (estimated) Publicly controlled Privately controlled Major item institutions institutions 1952-53 1960-61 ~/ 1952-53 1960-61 y Mean total current expenditure .... $1,120 $1,300 $1,674 $2,100 Tuition and required fees ......... 151 225 546 863 Room rent ......................... 102 116 146 165 Board (regular meals) ............. 270 318 301 354 Clothing (including footwear) ..... 130 135 149 155 All other current expenditures .... 467 506 532 563 I y Estimates based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Indexes and the increase in mean institutional fees since 1953. The institutional tuition charge ($151 in public and $546 in privately controlled institutions) was a relatively small portion of the student expenditure for 1952-53. The major expenditures which make it difficult for lowincome families to send a son or daughter away to college are the board and room costs away from home rather than the costs of tuition and fees, books and supplies. Several factors appear to determine the cost of attending college: (1) Spending habits formed at home; (2) choice of college; (3) pressures of campus customs and mores; (4) size of family income and (5) whether or not a student lives at home. Regional variations enter the situation, as these mean expenditures show: Northeastern ........•....•..................... North Central .................................. Western .......•...•..••.•..................•... Southern ....................................... $1,676 1,262 1,209 1,164 -25- On the average, students who lived at home and commuted to college spent approxi.."'lately $1, 000 per year. Students who lived in private homes or college dormitories spent approximately $350 more; and students who lived in fraternities or sororities approximately another $300. Sources of student income One study for the year 1959-60 obtained data through personal interviews from a representative sample of 2, 700 families living in private homes. y This study indicated that the mean annual expenditure of single college students was $1,5501 and that for 3 out of 4 families expenditures varied between $950 and $2,450. Of the mean expenditure of $1,550, parental contributions accounted for $950, $350 was from the student, $130 was in the form of scholarship assistance, and $110 came from other sources. Half of the families who had had children in college during the past 5 years had set money aside in advance to help pay college costs. These families, on the average, began 10 years earlier to save .such funds . In about one-fifth of the families the mother took a job to help pay college expenses. Approximately half of the families indicated that it was necessary to reduce other expenditures or to live on a tight budget to meet their children's college expenditures. Fourteen percent of the families reported borrowing at one time or another and parents reported borrowing twice as often as the students. The authors commented on the reluctance of the parents to rely on loans . They stated "borrowing to pay for a college education is regarded by most people as something to be done only when the need is acute and no other funds are readily available • " Prospects for the coming decade A pressing problem confronting higher education in the decade of the sixties will be that of obtaining adequate financial support. Will an increasing portion of it have to come in the form of higher student tuition fees? This is by no means a novel question, but it is becoming more urgent. The principal argument for higher fees is that higher education is essentially a matter of personal advantage and hence should be financed to a larger degree by individuals. The average income of college graduates is usually higher than that of nongraduates, and the college trained have greater "ability to pay." A different philosophy holds that higher education is a social investment. This point of view holds that opportunities for higher education should be made available to all youth of ability, irrespective of family economic status. y Lansing, John B., Lorimer, Thomas and MJriguchi, C. How People Pay For College. Institute of SOcial Research, University of Michigan, Office of Education Cooperative Research Program. -26- The "social investment" character of higher education has not prevented public institutions in recent years from increasing their tuition charges. However, it is still ~uite unlikely that States will abandon tax-supported higher education in any substantial degree. It appears likely that student tuition charges will continue to increase, but probably in different ratios for the public and private higher institutions. ESTIMATED COST OF 1 WEEK'S FOOD The table on opposite page presents the estimated cost of l week's food to be prepared and served at home. The estimate is based on ~uantities of food in the low cost, moderate cost, and liberal plans. The plans are available as a leaflet--Low Cost, MOderate Cost, and Liberal Family Food Budgets, HHE(Adm.)-146. The cost of food for a specific family can be estimated from the table, since costs are given for individuals of different ages. These costs are based on averages of food prices collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 46 cities, and may not apply to any specific city or region. -27- Estimated Cost of 1 Week's Food, ~October 1960--U.S.A. Average Sex-age groups FAMILIES Family of two, 20-34 years 2/ ...•..••.... Family of two, 55-74 years~ ....••..••.• Family of four, preschool children ]/ ..•. Family of four, school children~/ ••.•.•. INDIVIIXJALS Children: Under 1 year ............•..........••.. 1-3 years •.•...•.•........•....•....•.. 4-6 years ............................. . 7-9 years ............................. . 10-12 years ••....••....••.•....•.....•• Girls, 13-15 years •••.•..........•..••..• 16-19 years ••••....•......•.•..•......• Boys, 13-15 years •.....•...•............• 16-19 years •..•.....•...•..•....••.•... Women: 20-34 years ........................... . 35-54 years •••.•.•..•.......•...•...•.. 55-74 years ........................... . 75 years and over •...•.....•••..•.••... Pregnant .•.•..•.•....•...••..••...•.... Nursing ............................... . Men: 20-34 years ........................... . 35..: 54 years .••••...•..•.......•...•••.. 55-74 y-ears ........................... . 75 years and over •....••..•.........•.• Low-cost plan Dollars 13.80 12.40 20.60 23.80 3.10 3-70 4.40 5.20 6.10 6.40 6.50 6.90 8.20 5.40 5-30 5.00 4.80 6.80 8.50 7-10 6.60 6.30 6.10 Moderate- Liberal cost plan plan Dollars Dollars 19.00 21.30 17.00 19.00 27-70 31.40 32-30 36.60 3-90 4.20 4.70 5.30 5-70 6.70 6.80 7.80 8.20 9.4o 8.70 9-90 8.70 9-90 9.60 10.90 11.20 12.60 7.60 8.50 7-30 8.30 6.90 7.80 6.50 7-30 8.90 9.80 10.90 12.10 9-70 10.90 9.10 10.10 8.60 9-50 8.20 9.10 1/ These estimates were computed from ~uantities in low-cost, moderatecost, and liberal food plans published in tables 2, 3, and 4 of the October 1957 issue of Family Economics Review. Quantities for children were revised January 1959 to comply with the 1958 NRC Recommended Dietary Allowances. The cost of the food plans was first estimated by using the average prices per pound of each food group paid by nonfarm survey families at 3 selected income levels. These prices were adjusted to current levels by use of Average Retail Prices of Food in 46 Large Cities Combined released periodically by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ?:/ Ten percent added for family size adjustment. For derivation of factor see pages 3 and 4 of the September 1960 issue of Family Economics Review. 3/ Man and woman 20-34 years; children, 1-3 and 4-6 years. 1JJ Man and woman 20-34 years; children, 7-9 and 10-12 years. -28- CONSUMER PRICES Table 1.--Index of Prices Paid by Farmers for Commodities Used in Family Living (1947-49 = 100) November 1959; March 1960-November 1960 Item Nov. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 1959 1960 All commodities ............ 119 118 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 Food and tobacco ......... -- 115 -- -- 117 -- -- 117 -- -- Clothing ................. -- 118 -- -- 117 -- -- 119 -- -- Household operation ...... -- 117 -- -- ll7 -- -- 118 -- -- Household furnishings .... -- 104 -- -- lo4 -- -- 103 -- -- Building materials, house. -- 122 -- -- 122 -- -- 121 -- -- Auto and auto supplies ... -- 142 -- -- 140 -- -- 139 -- -- I Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. Table 2.--Consumer Price Index for City Wage-Earner and Clerical-Worker Families (1947-49 = 100) October 1959; February 1960-0ctober 1960 Item Oct. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 1959 1960 All items .................. 126 126 126 126 126 126 127 127 127 127 Food ..................... 118 117 118 120 120 120 121 120 120 121 Apparel .................. 109 108 109 109 109 109 109 109 111 111 Housing .................. 130 131 131 131 131 131 131 132 132 132 Rent ................... 14o 141 141 141 141 142 142 142 142 142 Gas and electricity •••• 122 124 124 124 125 125 125 125 126 126 Solid fuels and fuel oil 136 139 137 136 133 132 133 133 135 136 House furnishings ....... 104 104 105 105 104 lo4 104 104 104 104 Household operation •.•• 135 136 137 137 137 137 137 138 138 138 Transportation .•••••••.•• 148 148 146 146 146 146 146 146 145 146 Medical care ••••••••.•..• 152 155 155 156 156 156 156 157 157 157 Personal care ............ 132 133 133 133 133 133 133 134 134 134 Reading and recreation .•• 120 121 121 121 121 121 122 122 122 122 Other goods and services . 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 133 133 I I Source: U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. |
OCLC number | 888048464 |
|
|
|
A |
|
C |
|
G |
|
H |
|
N |
|
P |
|
U |
|
W |
|
|
|